Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Looks like a period of above normal temperatures will persist for the foreseeable future. H5 is still not conducive to a cold and snowy pattern for the Northeast, but long range models do offer a bit of hope. Happy December folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Had a gust of 43 mph from the WNW about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 High of 68 yesterday. Only 63 at KRME though. Sitting at 37° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 High of 68 yesterday. Only 63 at KRME though. Sitting at 37° now. 36.5 right now with moderate snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Snow Showers on and off here today. Wind is pretty strong and steady out of the NW. Looks like pretty boring weather the coming week as a few waves ride up along the stalled front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 On and off snow showers mixd with graupel pellets here. 33F. What a boring pattern. Yawnnnn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Graupel was falling at home earlier. Flurries at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 just under 1" on the ground here, got under a few heavier bands late in the day....at least everything is white again, even if it will all be washed away by rain soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Just a dusting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Graupel showers turned into snow showers yesterday afternoon, enough to turn everything white. Probably .2" or so. I'm taking the SKYWARN training class tonight in Oneonta so I'll have to measure these little snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Certaintly hasn't been a banner start to winter for most of us up to this point. I know it's early, but I can't help look at the long range progs and start to wonder when we'll break the seasonal 10" mark in BUF. I've heard all the talk about how the setup is so much different than last winter, but here we are again looking potentially deep into December with no days of any meaningful snow cover and less than 3 inches so far on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Certaintly hasn't been a banner start to winter for most of us up to this point. I know it's early, but I can't help look at the long range progs and start to wonder when we'll break the seasonal 10" mark in BUF. I've heard all the talk about how the setup is so much different than last winter, but here we are again looking potentially deep into December with no days of any meaningful snow cover and less than 3 inches so far on the season. On the positive side, I was able to run the mower today to clear out some leaves and played a few holes of golf earlier this week - kind of crazy for December... yes for hearing how different this years pattern is than last years itsure seems like its shaping up the same way. Im really thinking we will have a smaller total this year than we had last year come christmas time which is a shame. Starting to think a 50" winter would be pretty good at this point :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 yes for hearing how different this years pattern is than last years itsure seems like its shaping up the same way. Im really thinking we will have a smaller total this year than we had last year come christmas time which is a shame. Starting to think a 50" winter would be pretty good at this point :/ Of course it's still early and all it takes in these parts is a rocking few week period to pile up our snow totals, whether that comes in Dec or Mar...but the Ghosts of Winter 2011/12 are definitely in my head making me think bad thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Of course it's still early and all it takes in these parts is a rocking few week period to pile up our snow totals, whether that comes in Dec or Mar...but the Ghosts of Winter 2011/12 are definitely in my head making me think bad thoughts... pattern over the next 16 days sure looks like total **** thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 pattern over the next 16 days sure looks like total **** thats for sure. It still can't be anywhere near as bad at the pattern was for most of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 It still can't be anywhere near as bad at the pattern was for most of last winter. I wouldnt say that just yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Just looked at the last GFS 16-day: a very white and rather cold Xmas. (Yeah, I know...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It is not just the latest operational, but also the GFS Ensemble mean and the European long range Ensemble mean showing a turn to colder than normal around or just after the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 It is not just the latest operational, but also the GFS Ensemble mean and the European long range Ensemble mean showing a turn to colder than normal around or just after the 18th. Let me know when I can start feeling confidant about this! Wouldn't that be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 18z GFS Ensemble Means show progressively colder each day from the 18th right through Christmas. Basically mirroring the 12z European Ensemble means. I am getting optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Expecting 1-3" of ice and snow overnight. I'll believe it in the am. What I DO believe is the 40's and .75" of rain in the forecast for tomorrow. October in December this year. Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 18z GFS Ensemble Means show progressively colder each day from the 18th right through Christmas. Basically mirroring the 12z European Ensemble means. I am getting optimistic. Trends are definitely looking up after this week. Hoping the model trend continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I have reservations for Whiteface right after Christmas. How does the recent developments on the GFS impact Whiteface over the next few weeks? Any chance for some serious snow or will everything be too far east? Thanks for your replies in advance -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The pattern looks like it will get more interesting as we head into the beginning of next week, with the MJO forecast by most of the global ensembles to enter phase 1. This should lead to a stronger subtropical jet and also allow for blocking to occur, especially if the MJO gets to a decent amplitude in phase 2. This is predicted by some of the ensembles as well, though the amplitude may not be as strong. As you can see in the MJO composites above, phase 2 correlates with 250 mb anticyclonic anomalies (higher heights) over Canada, which indicates weaker winds and a greater chance of blocking. Both the Euro and GFS show the development of a rex/omega block around Hudson Bay, with the Euro having a stronger omega block at the end of the run. It is too far out right now to know where the block will develop but it does look like that there will be some favorable blocking in place for the Eastern US in the next one to two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The pattern looks like it will get more interesting as we head into the beginning of next week, with the MJO forecast by most of the global ensembles to enter phase 1. This should lead to a stronger subtropical jet and also allow for blocking to occur, especially if the MJO gets to a decent amplitude in phase 2. This is predicted by some of the ensembles as well, though the amplitude may not be as strong. As you can see in the MJO composites above, phase 2 correlates with 250 mb anticyclonic anomalies (higher heights) over Canada, which indicates weaker winds and a greater chance of blocking. Both the Euro and GFS show the development of a rex/omega block around Hudson Bay, with the Euro having a stronger omega block at the end of the run. It is too far out right now to know where the block will develop but it does look like that there will be some favorable blocking in place for the Eastern US in the next one to two weeks. Lets hope that we can get some good LES in before the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Lets hope that we can get some good LES in before the end of the month. The 12z GFS shows some potential with a large omega block over The North Atlantic around hr 240, with an upper level low near Newfoundland. If we can get a low to retrograde over central Quebec and the omega block to hold that would be a good pattern for a multi-day LES event east of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 12z GFS shows some potential with a large omega block over The North Atlantic around hr 240, with an upper level low near Newfoundland. If we can get a low to retrograde over central Quebec and the omega block to hold that would be a good pattern for a multi-day LES event east of Lake Ontario. I was looking at that, but I am not confident that it will come to fruition. The only good thing going for me is that finals week is almost over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Are we in for a little surprise event here in the BUF metro area tonight? Any mets wanna chime in? NWS going for 1-2" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_eus_030_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Are we in for a little surprise event here in the BUF metro area tonight? Any mets wanna chime in? NWS going for 1-2" http://mag.ncep.noaa..._precip_p24.gif http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ This shows a pretty nice band right over Metro from Midnight through 10 am. Maybe surprise few inch event! Lets hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa....tv/html/4kmwrf/ This shows a pretty nice band right over Metro from Midnight through 10 am. Maybe surprise few inch event! Lets hope! Did it play out in the end for you guys? Received about 1cm LES in Guelph last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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