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Severe Threat Dec 10-12


Buckeye05

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Hate to burst the snow bubble here, but I feel that a thread is needed for this developing situation. A powerful trough looks like it will dig into the south early next week. The warm sector is large and a (significant?) severe event looks to be possible. Looks like this could be a multi-day event, ranging from Louisiana to Tennessee and the Carolinas. This time of year is favorable for high shear/low CAPE nocturnal events, and those can be particularly dangerous for Dixie Alley. This is one to watch, as the wording from more knowledgeable meteorologists and weather enthusiasts about this setup has me concerned.

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Hate to burst the snow bubble here, but I feel that a thread is needed for this developing situation. A powerful trough looks like it will dig into the south early next week. The warm sector is large and a (significant?) severe event looks to be possible. Looks like this could be a multi-day event, ranging from Louisiana to Tennessee and the Carolinas. This time of year is favorable for high shear/low CAPE nocturnal events, and those can be particularly dangerous for Dixie Alley. This is one to watch, as the wording from more knowledgeable meteorologists and weather enthusiasts about this setup has me concerned.

You can bust our drought bubble anytime!

NWS Blacksburg

"The main front arrives Tuesday and the 00z European model (ecmwf) shows a strong system moving across the Great Lakes. May be unstable enough for thunderstorms if this holds true."

inb4...Thunder=Winter=Snow1WeekLater

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hoping this pans out for central NC, been itchin for a decent storm...do y'all think there might be tornadoes? or is it too early to tell?

Too soon to tell, and I am not feeling as confident about this as the GFS is now locked in on moisture return that is mediocre at best. Could still change though.

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Too soon to tell, and I am not feeling as confident about this as the GFS is now locked in on moisture return that is mediocre at best. Could still change though.

Because the storm is not as strong as previously modeled (can we please get a neutral-negative tilted system this year? :angry: ), the moisture return will not be as significant. I'd like to see this trend back in the other direction, who knows.

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