WilkesboroDude Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 This guy is amazing at tropical forecasting...below is his winter forecast though. He is from Alaska, so there never is really any bias w/ his forecasts for the lower 48. http://classic.wunde...ml?entrynum=582 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 His analysis's are never really short of amazing IMO. You should see him in action during the hurricane season next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 A very well done presentation & easy to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I think this guy is spot on. The PDO is now in control west of Alaska and it is going to rule the roost this winter. You have witnessed the pattern change over the last month that decimates many of this winter's long term forecast. Variability over the east is likely with no cold lock this winter. Best storm track along a battle zone in the Ohio valley dragging brief occurrences of cold air behind them into NC. No where near a good winter for our area, but not the worst either like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 His vids are a good learning tool IMO. I have learned a lot about the tropics from him. I wish more mets would take the time out to teach and show the audience what they are preaching simultaneously. Not just spit out their forecast and definitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It made sense. I have never heard of him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 He is currently working on his bachelor's degree in physics at UAF. I think he said he was limited to what he can take there...a bit ironic he is like a tropical expert in Alaska. He's active on Dr. Master's blog commenting through the Atlantic hurricane season...only place you would probably get a chance to hear or talk to him. He has had his fair share of putting the NHC to shame...not to say the NHC is bad...they are good at what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 I will take the chance with a battle zone nearby...I think last year it was in Canada? Kentucky sounds better. Precip is better than the current drought. And he did mention cold air could ooze down at times...just not lock in place. After highlighting the negatives, he still leaves the door open for above normal snowfall with a stormy pattern. Usually only takes 1 storm so I see where he is coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 If this were to play out, would it put us in a situation where we would more likely see freezing rain or ice storms as opposed to all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 If this were to play out, would it put us in a situation where we would more likely see freezing rain or ice storms as opposed to all snow? I would think so...with a battle zone near. It sounds like he left the door open to snow too, if timing of the cold air oozing down is just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Analog years...1952, 1954, 1969, and 1995. Good or bad? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Here are a few events from 1995...which came up as a analog from Levi. 1995-02-15 Freezing rain developed across northwest and north central North Carolina during the early morning hours on the 15th and continued until mid morning. The freezing rain produced ice covered roads which resulted in several traffic accidents. 1995-12-08 A light mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow caused a few slick spots on roads in the northern mountains and foothills. 1995-12-09 Sleet and freezing rain from the late evening hours on the 8th to the early morning hours on the 9th resulted in hazardous conditions and several traffic accidents. 1995-12-10 Freezing rain fell over the mountains and foothills for several hours. In Haywood and Transylvania Counties, accumulations of ice were enough to cause some power outages. Otherwise, slick roads and a number of accidents were the main problems with the freezing rain. Some sleet and snow mixed in at h... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Here are a few events from 1969...which came up as a analog from Levi. 1969-01-06 A light but treacherous coating of ice and snow caused serious traffic problems over a large area. Direct damage by weather was light but hundreds of related automobile wrecks occurred. Several cars skidded off bridges and at least one woman was drowned as a result. Light damage to power and comm... 1969-01-27 Intermittent light freezing rain over a three day period again caused traffic problems over a similar area. Many accidents but relatively few injuries and no know fatalities. In some areas enough ice accumulated on trees and overhead lines to cause some breakage. Schools closed one or more days i... 1969-02-16 Heavy snow in the southwest with heavy glazing in the south central area, tapering off northward with light to none along the Virginia border. Mostly rain in the extreme east. Snow accumulations of up to 20 inches in the southern Mountains. It was a very destructive ice storm along the central South Carolina border and extending into South Carolina. There was wholesale breakage of power and telephone lines and poles. one power company reported 100,000 customers (in the two Carolinas) without electricity for periods of one to several days, and over 2,000 men were required to repair the damage. Heavy steel towers carrying high voltage lines crumpled under the weight of the ice; in one place every tower reported down over a three mile stretch. Many poultry houses and other lightly constructed frame building collapsed under the weight of ice and snow accumulation on roofs; many birds were lost. There were no known deaths or injuries directly caused by the weather, but traffic accidents were numerous and at least one death resulted. 1969-02-23 Widespread frozen and freezing precipitation in the western portion of the state, but damage was only scattered and small compared with the storm of 15th-16th. A few trees were down along with a few scattered cases of power and telephone lines breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 ^ Interesting pattern there. Also note Levi failed to mention ice for our area...as he was not NC focused. Very interesting analog years there. I posted the end date of the storms by the way...not the start date...my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 I had trouble finding detailed info for 1952 and 1954...the NC Climate Database does not extend that far back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 “Major Frankenstorm Hazel" in October, 1954... Don't see anything for '52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 That was a fantastic presentation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 That was a fantastic presentation... It sucks he does not do individual videos for winter storms. I left him a comment asking him if he would, if he saw a major winter storm for the east coast. I don't blame him tho, he is probably sick of the snow in Alaska...probably why focuses only on the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Amazing. He might be right on unlike everyone else predicting cold and snowy and its warm and dry everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 Here is his map...slightly above normal snowfall. But after looking at his analogs, might be better to say above normal ice chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Here is his map...slightly above normal snowfall. But after looking at his analogs, might be better to say above normal ice chances. I don't read that map to say slightly above normal snowfall anywhere but the upper Midwest and Northeast. Not in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 I don't read that map to say slightly above normal snowfall anywhere but the upper Midwest and Northeast. Not in our area. Yea you have to watch the vid for him to mention it...or circle us and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Nicely presented forecast. Thing that he even says there are alot of unknowns only having 4 seasons with negative PDO and slightly above neutral or weak Nino. So to say for sure that the -PDO will win out over ENSO is not a slam dunk to me. But very nice job on the video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Skip to 11min mark in the video... Everything appears to be coming into play for a chance of above normal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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