Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well like I told you a while back, if it is going to help anyone it is going to be you Upper Midwest-Lakes-New England folk. But that still means a lousy start to the LES season which I think we both agreed on was the most likely outcome. Although, there are some decent cold shots being modeled to change that around in the medium range. Overall the amount of warming was more than I expected but a lot of things did end up working out. I am very impressed with the models and the stratosphere along with the typical AO relationships and what they meant. It is always the interpretation that gets skewed... womp You still think Dec 11 storm can trend colder like you did yest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yeah I guess. If I'm still losing to LL come April I may have to leap off of Tuckerman's, but until then I'll remain patient. Like Will said, 05-06 was a dead ratter up here, but luckily I wasn't here then. Your lucky, You would not be having this conversation as you would have been already at the bottom of Tuckerman lodged some where in the ravine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yeah, I mean, if the models are right, I don't see how we're not +NAO at least through Christmas, even with the potential for a -AO (of course, like you, given my December forecast around Nov 15, maybe I shouldn't be doing much pontificating either ) Looking back, some of the things that we mentioned could mess things up were correct (we hit on them well). The MJO becoming muddled was a possible issue but more importantly the strong polar vortex. It was noted that the wave 2 amplitude was only being forecasted to be moderate and that the PV itself was very cold and 2011-12 like. Based on that, I should have been more proactive with the possibility that the vortex will want to rapidly reform toward Greenland (since the N PAC warmings would have continued we could have surmised that it would swing toward the N. Atlantic side). Yet another learning experience from the stratosphere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 You still think Dec 11 storm can trend colder like you did yest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 lol this. Although try telling my bosses that at work... You're a boss now right?!? haha ... Seriously, I know the feeling well and it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well like I told you a while back, if it is going to help anyone it is going to be you Upper Midwest-Lakes-New England folk. But that still means a lousy start to the LES season which I think we both agreed on was the most likely outcome. Although, there are some decent cold shots being modeled to change that around in the medium range. Overall the amount of warming was more than I expected but a lot of things did end up working out. I am very impressed with the models and the stratosphere along with the typical AO relationships and what they meant. It is always the interpretation that gets skewed... womp yeah. There's certainly been much better, but I'm not really much below average with 6.6" on the season so far (3 or 4" below, right now). We do good work with a +PNA, but maybe we get something to work well with this pattern...the PV/low height anomalies do get shunted fairly far south in Canada, as modeled. That isn't necessarily good for shortwave development, but it is good for LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 You still think Dec 11 storm can trend colder like you did yest? The modest NAO signal could be enough to get things trending cooler for you guys. Let's see how the 12z stuff goes. The MJO could become more coherent into the La Niña phases as it leaves the IO during mid-Dec which could be a negative influence. At the same time, the recent N. American MT spike would want to promote more ridging there. It certainly is possible things trend cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 50/43 Might bust positive today with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 You're a boss now right?!? haha ... Seriously, I know the feeling well and it sucks. Yeah, so now I'm the first one to get dumped on for a busted forecast... especially since I'm also the "medium range guy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The thing about mountain torques are, AAM will want to be conserved and so the modeling of a trough here / SLP on the lee of the Rockies would make sense around the 10th. That would be the pattern that would conserve AAM and return it to Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The modest NAO signal could be enough to get things trending cooler for you guys. Let's see how the 12z stuff goes. The MJO could become more coherent into the La Niña phases as it leaves the IO during mid-Dec which could be a negative influence. At the same time, the recent N. American MT spike would want to promote more ridging there. It certainly is possible things trend cooler. Yeah a few of us were thinking that earlier today. While others said it was impossible..Esp. With NAO going neg and a cold HP in E Canada. all you have to do is go back to last Tuesday snow event from Jersey north and the snow / ice we had this weekend. You get a high up there, and neggy NAO,you likely won't cut a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Scorcher! 59F at TAN. 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 yeah. There's certainly been much better, but I'm not really much below average with 6.6" on the season so far (3 or 4" below, right now). We do good work with a +PNA, but maybe we get something to work well with this pattern...the PV/low height anomalies do get shunted fairly far south in Canada, as modeled. That isn't necessarily good for shortwave development, but it is good for LES. I just am not confident about a full blown +PNA lasting for any length of time exceeding 2 days. I also think the models are rushing the NAO process and I think the GFS is out to lunch with a west-based NAO. The cool thing is we are starting to hone in on January for our next chance to get everything to work together again. Right now, everything is against each other creating a sort of rollercoaster / fast jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I just am not confident about a full blown +PNA lasting for any length of time exceeding 2 days. I also think the models are rushing the NAO process and I think the GFS is out to lunch with a west-based NAO. The cool thing is we are starting to hone in on January for our next chance to get everything to work together again. Right now, everything is against each other creating a sort of rollercoaster / fast jet. 00z EC has a full blown -NAO block, but the EC ensembles just have that amorphous ridging in the north Atlantic. edit: I was mentioning a +PNA is good for LES, not that is was really going to occur duing the coming period. I agree, the models, even though they look fairly wintery for the northern tier, have been mostly showing a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 00z EC has a full blown -NAO block, but the EC ensembles just have that amorphous ridging in the north Atlantic. edit: I was mentioning a +PNA is good for LES, not that is was really going to occur duing the coming period. I agree, the models, even though they look fairly wintery for the northern tier, have been mostly showing a -PNA. Oh okay, yeah we agree then. Overall, this is turning into our expectations for mid-Dec that it would be a La Niña-like pattern. The more pronounced the thumb ridge into the North Atlantic, the more wintry for New England-Midwest. Either way, I'm measuring rainfall totals in NJ. haha The only way this west-based NAO idea could work out is if the "Canadian Warming" from the wave 1 response is strong enough to allow an anomalous anticyclone to build downstream of the PV. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yeah a few of us were thinking that earlier today. While others said it was impossible..Esp. With NAO going neg and a cold HP in E Canada. all you have to do is go back to last Tuesday snow event from Jersey north and the snow / ice we had this weekend. You get a high up there, and neggy NAO,you likely won't cut a storm 12z GFS is close for you guys 12/9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I was discussing with Will this weekend the prospects of this winter evolving from a nice, Nina like gradient pattern....to a bit more of a weak Ninoish pattern that would deliver. Big potential for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I was discussing with Will this weekend the prospects of this winter evolving from a nice, Nina like gradient pattern....to a bit more of a weak Ninoish pattern that would deliver. Big potential for this area. If you win i win for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I was discussing with Will this weekend the prospects of this winter evolving from a nice, Nina like gradient pattern....to a bit more of a weak Ninoish pattern that would deliver. Big potential for this area. Also discuss this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Also discuss this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 What up, handsome.... You back for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 If you win i win for the most part You and I need a nice late bloomer....Feb '69 style.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 You back for the winter? For the most part.....though I actually have a life now, so not quite so obsessively....slow morning today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Heck of a way to run a torch... I had no idea the temps were going to fall today. H85 temps were forecast to be above 0C, but its been mid 20s at elevation all day long. Snow melt cancel. Even in the valley at Morrisville-Stowe ASOS it was 43F at 6am and as of 11am it is down to 37F. I like torches when the temps are in the 30s. Sneaky cold up north today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 You and I need a nice late bloomer....Feb '69 style.... Yes, My avatar storm would work out well for you and I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yes, My avatar storm would work out well for you and I Why is ob under your avatar apparently from the N Pole?? 14*, under moon lite skies....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wavelengths elongating and the GFS absolutely rips across the entire pac basin next week. Boatload of pacific air for North America, but locally you couldn't rule out something if the Atlantic gave a brief window, especially north and east. But IMO everything is on track for the killer 2nd half of winter as that pig ridge in Siberia continues to retrograde and the surface HP remains strong over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Don't get me wrong, very impressive warming developing in eastern Siberia currently. But I'm thinking an ineffective NAO signal for now (I was already wrong with how the early Dec stratosphere-AO-NAO relationship would work once from a month out so you know ... lol) but becoming more effective entering the New Year. Maybe we get the real deal for New Years or just a little after. Just for clarification purposes, when you say ineffective NAO signal, are you referring to lack of snowfall opportunities or a lack of colder than normal airmasses in the Northeast? I agree w/ your thoughts on the NPAC signalling, and think it's likely that any +PNA signal in the LR will be very transient in nature. Earlier guidance had a surge to +0.5 SD by D 10 but recent data has significantly backed off - maybe near neutral. Generally when the PNA's as negative as it is for early December, it's a fairly good predictor that the DJ period will be predominately -PNA. That's ok though IMO, as the strong blocking should be able to compensate eventually, first across the northern tier, and then further south w/ the moving gradient. The tanking of the AO coupled w/ increasing support for -NAO block developing (east vs west based debatable at this point) will be sufficient to transport colder than normal air into the NE (IMO) on a more sustained basis by mid December. It seems you're thinking we'll have a scenario in which only Asia/Europe benefit from the -AO for the month of December. I'm a bit more bullish on cold getting locked in by the second half/last third of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 My temperature here in Central NH reached its high at 6am. Even with increasing sunshine past couple of hours the temp is slowly coasting down. High was 45.6F early this AM but now 43.9F at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Heck of a way to run a torch... I had no idea the temps were going to fall today. H85 temps were forecast to be above 0C, but its been mid 20s at elevation all day long. Snow melt cancel. Even in the valley at Morrisville-Stowe ASOS it was 43F at 6am and as of 11am it is down to 37F. I like torches when the temps are in the 30s. Sneaky cold up north today. that map shows warmer temps than what the nam was forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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