ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Yes it's still got the wave Tuesday nite No it doesn't. It has a broad area of SN- for VT/NH trailing the main system in an afrontal setup around 6z Tuesday. Not a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Well it's my pleasure to introduce a new weenie. Bryce was born last evening and mom and baby are well. It was an intense time with a couple of scares but everyone is doing ok. Way to go dude. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Best advice..... Stay super busy over the next 7-10 days.....check back in around the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Best advice..... Stay super busy over the next 7-10 days.....check back in around the 20th. Yep. Everywhere in New England, really. I come back to CT on 12/20...NNE will cash in after then. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 Best advice..... Stay super busy over the next 7-10 days.....check back in around the 20th. 3 finals on Tuesday, ill be VERY busy til then haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 We the GEFS as we stated were always suspect with that. Looks much closer to euro ensemble. Also I didn't think that follow up wave was going to work out like the euro had. The euro does that stuff sometimes. We all mentioned that the gradient would be overhead and may not be epic. We can't stress that enough. It's dangerous to assume that we go into a pattern that has produced before and assume it will happen again. It's very difficult predict how snowfall will break out. It's not the best pattern but it isn't a disaster either. We'll have some opportunities with this change coming up. Maybe it's more NNE but who's to say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Best advice..... Stay super busy over the next 7-10 days.....check back in around the 20th. thanks Mom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 thanks Mom lol........enjoy your December to Remember, its the only December we have got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I thnk we may be on the good side of the gradient for a spell post Monday per euro. There is no gradient on the op 12z euro run. Through 228 everything has been rain from maine south. Granted its one run, but the last few model runs have been punting december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 can we unlock the 2-4" tuesday night yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Euro trying to tickle 60 for us again next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 See what the ensembles do...but the 12z euro op was ugly from maine south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The op Euro is an absolute horror show through 12/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The op Euro is an absolute horror show through 12/20. yeah it's not the best. at least Kevin won't have to wash any salt off his truck. and if he has to wash it...he can do it in a t-shirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The 06z GEFS actually looked pretty encouraging for the Tue wave. Ensemble mean suggested good support for light-mod precipitation, indeed 6/12 ens members on the raleigh wx site showed a wave impacting the area on Tue with a 7th developing a coastal low with the next shortwave on Wed. Most were on the warm side but a few were fairly significant. The 12z GEFS has backed off on this potential, but with a few headfakes from the Euro, Canadian, and GEFS, it cannot be completely ignored. There are several shortwaves swinging down the upstream side of the developing trof next week, so model error is likely. I'm also mildly intrigued by the Wed possibility. The longwave trof axis if finally in a good position by this timeframe. The structure remains positive tilted and the shortwave timing and interaction is poor. But if the models miss a robust s/w in the flow and/or the timing is improved, the Tue - Thurs timeframe could potentially produce a coastal low that affects at least SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The op Euro is an absolute horror show through 12/20. Congrats Seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Who's melting first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 The op Euro is an absolute horror show through 12/20. Nittany88 posted this in the NNE thread... this is a horror show. Gotta go back to March 7, 2011 when BTV picked up 17" to find the last 6"+ snowstorm at the WFO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macriver Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Well it's my pleasure to introduce a new weenie. Bryce was born last evening and mom and baby are well. It was an intense time with a couple of scares but everyone is doing ok. Congratulations! Wishing you and your family all the best life has to offer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Below normal heights does not equal below normal temps. Needed, PNA and cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I won't go OT but just this. Congrats!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 12z GEFS members just rolling in. A few appear to switch rain to snow for higher elevations of SNE on Tue. I can't view the full suite yet, but considering the less impressive mean QPF, there doesn't appear to be the more robust coastal low centers that a few of the 06z members showed. I still think the entire midweek period has a low chance for a surprise snow. 300mb is supportive, but the baroclinic zone is suppressed too far southeast. If we were dealing the year 2000 model programming, I would have more confidence in a surprise bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Favorable height anomoly charts at day 10-15 are a dime a dozen. The error is so large as to render them almost useless as harbingers of snow. Sure they have some utility in forecasting temperature and precipitation anomolies, but even if a favorable regime arrives as predicted (questionable), there is no way to predict rain, snow, or dry. Day 10 temperature progs are scarcely better than climo, esp near the Atlantic at our latitude. If you look that far out for snow it will always feel two weeks away and/or you will miss the mid-range threats that pop up without long range warning. It is just not an effective way to make a synoptic forecast. Sure it is fashionable, but that doesn't make it useful. I want to see a threat on the mid-range guidance (at least 300mb and 500mb), not the long range anomoly charts to get excited. Otherwise the rug will get pulled out from under. Just look at the 10 day ensemble spaghetti plots. They are like children's crayon drawings. 10 days of error progatation is enough to create a spread in the 558dm height contour from Maine to the tropics. i specifically posted 6-10 day ensemble anomaly charts also just so someone wouldn't post "well it's always beyond day 10!) It doesn't matter, you obviously know more than I do about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Jumpers jump. Floaters stay afloat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 man this is gonna be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Jumpers jump. Floaters stay afloat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 i specifically posted 6-10 day ensemble anomaly charts also just so someone wouldn't post "well it's always beyond day 10!) It doesn't matter, you obviously know more than I do about this. It's not personal. I have nothing against you or your knowledge. And since we don't know each other I'm guessing you don't know too much about my knowledge either, apart from what I write. 6-10 day anomaly charts are obviously a lot more useful than longer range charts. I believe that's clearly the timeframe where most wintry threats become apparent. My problem is with long range forecasting and the infamous "pattern changes." I think uneducated guys like Bastardi started it and perpetrated to the masses disinformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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