weatherMA Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Congrats Scott! Must be an awesome feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 the 12z gfs seemed to have lost alot of the blocking to a larger degree. unless i am mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 the 12z gfs seemed to have lost alot of the blocking to a larger degree. unless i am mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Do you actually have to see a storm for it to be favorable? This was just yesterday, btw. http://raleighwx.ame...htAnomalyNH.gif Favorable height anomoly charts at day 10-15 are a dime a dozen. The error is so large as to render them almost useless as harbingers of snow. Sure they have some utility in forecasting temperature and precipitation anomolies, but even if a favorable regime arrives as predicted (questionable), there is no way to predict rain, snow, or dry. Day 10 temperature progs are scarcely better than climo, esp near the Atlantic at our latitude. If you look that far out for snow it will always feel two weeks away and/or you will miss the mid-range threats that pop up without long range warning. It is just not an effective way to make a synoptic forecast. Sure it is fashionable, but that doesn't make it useful. I want to see a threat on the mid-range guidance (at least 300mb and 500mb), not the long range anomoly charts to get excited. Otherwise the rug will get pulled out from under. Just look at the 10 day ensemble spaghetti plots. They are like children's crayon drawings. 10 days of error progatation is enough to create a spread in the 558dm height contour from Maine to the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Favorable anomoly charts at day 10-15 are a dime a dozen. The error is so large as to render them almost useless as harbingers of snow. Sure they have some utility in forecasting temperature and precipitation anomolies, but even if a favorable regime arrives as predicted (questionable), there is no way to predict rain, snow, or dry. Day 10 temperature progs are scarcely better than climo, esp near the Atlantic at our latitude. If you look that far out for snow it will always feel two weeks away and/or you will miss the mid-range threats that pop up without long range warning. It is just not an effective way to make a synoptic forecast. Sure it is fashionable, but that doesn't make it useful. I want to see a threat on the mid-range guidance (at least 300mb and 500mb), not the long range anomoly charts to get excited. Otherwise the rug will get pulled out from under. Just look at the 10 day ensemble spaghetti plots. They are like children's crayon drawings. 10 days of error progatation is enough to create a spread in the 558dm height contour from Maine to the tropics. i think you're going to get a lot of disagreement from most of the GOOD mets on here. Some with violence. You may have opened up Pandoras box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 i think you're going to get a lot of disagreement from most of the GOOD mets on here. Some with violence. You may have opened up Pandoras box It's like when they opened up the box on Raiders of the Lost Ark. Spirits came out, lightning bolts through people, and faces melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 It's like when they opened up the box on Raiders of the Lost Ark. Spirits came out, lightning bolts through people, and faces melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 8, 2012 Author Share Posted December 8, 2012 It's like when they opened up the box on Raiders of the Lost Ark. Spirits came out, lightning bolts through people, and faces melting. hahaha yesss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 2nd wave is even weaker this run. no precip for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 He's our friend. Very much so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 DT pulled the plug on snow and cold on Facebook. Lemmings to the edge of the cliff please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 I thnk we may be on the good side of the gradient for a spell post Monday per euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 And lest anyone's expectations are overly skewed...climo today for BOS is 44/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Today we celebrate a new addition to our NE family. He will bring us good JUJU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Anyone else going to see Leonard Cohen in Boston next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Congratulations, Scott and Mom. So sorry you all had to go through a couple scares but so happy to hear mom and baby are both resting well. Welcome to the big weenie world, Bryce.. You're so blessed to have two great parents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 GEFS mean 11-15 days still showing the big blocking moving from Scandanavia into Russia. But there is enough west based NAO ridging to do something fun in these parts I think with a gradient pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 the strength of the west based -nao keeps diminishing on gfes runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 0z: 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 So the euro is dry Tuesday night, does it cut next weekend like the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Congrats Scott!! That's awesome! Here's to the kid's first winter being a good one. He's definitely lucky to have a great dad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 So the euro is dry Tuesday night, does it cut next weekend like the gfs? Yup. Cuts over Iowa lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Yes it's still got the wave Tuesday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Man, this weather blows this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 heights over AK are also lower on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 So the ,euro is dry Tuesday night, does it cut next weekend like the gfs? the next week or so doesn't even look good for NNE, ski resorts. i guess saddleback/sugarloaf prob could fair the best, but the mansfield snow stake doesn't look to be climbing much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 looks like a warm up and rain again next weekend, similar to monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 tuesday's system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 heights over AK are also lower on this run hey forky based on teleconnectors and medium term guidance (if there is any sort of trend or threat period to decipher) when do you think a legit period for wintry threats is in SNE, going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Better looking west based -NAO on the 12z ECMWF when compared to the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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