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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Just wanted to say Mazel Tov!!! My son (16) is my ultimate weather weenie buddy for life. We track storms together, go snow chasing and hike ADK peaks in the winter. Enjoy every moment. I love the picture!

I'm in Albany, NY and find myself mostly reading the NE forums. You guys are a wealth of knowledge and entertainment! I really enjoy your posts and wish you and your family the best!

I won't go OT but just this.

F0DAF3DC-2E9A-4A40-85F6-8D297755D0CA-5523-0000051D25349E46.jpg

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lol

dude, it's weather.

LOL it's weather and it's only December.

Sure you will. Your family is ok, you have a fine home, a steady income, enough to eat and you're healthy and strong. Things could be worse.

I need snow..especially for the holidays. If this promised pattern doesn't deliver..I 'll have to take a break. Seriously.

I know I'm not alone on this

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I just don't understand where all the angst came from overnight. Nothing changed pattern wise. It was one off Euro run. Relax. Stay the course

There is nothing in the recent modeling to suggest that snow is on the horizon. Since it's December, it's going to get cold at some point. And surprise snow is always a possibility. But there is little to get excited about on the guidance. Day 10+ is fantasy land. Patterns don't often get locked in at our latitude and longitude... they are usually transient. The medium range is where we spot our wintry threats 90% of the time.

I see a slight overrunning threat with a little CAD on Sunday night, minor anafrontal snow potential esp higher elevations of NNE, and the Euro wave potential on Tue or thereabouts (which is unlikely but I think our best bet). A few GFS ensemble members have developed that wave a bit more robustly over the past 24 hours... but still doubtful. Thereafter there's just not much to get excited about if you like snow. We just have to wait for something to show up that's worth watching.

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Just wanted to say Mazel Tov!!! My son (16) is my ultimate weather weenie buddy for life. We track storms together, go snow chasing and hike ADK peaks in the winter. Enjoy every moment. I love the picture!

I'm in Albany, NY and find myself mostly reading the NE forums. You guys are a wealth of knowledge and entertainment! I really enjoy your posts and wish you and your family the best!

post here more!

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Hey, Kevin -

I don't want acknowledgement for that. I wasn't predicting an icestorm. I merely pointed out that there was some suggestion in the synoptic evolution that icing scenario could take place. I was also clear - I thought anyway - in followup post that this was the case.

In fact, I am if anything leaning away from that idea - I haven't had a tremendous amount of time to sneak looks, or even stay on top of things, and contribute this last week as we have deadlines due up at the office. But... I was noticing this last air mass conversion from 25/19 type air mass got eradicated and replaced by 37/34 with almost no advection at the climo sites. The wind was calm at BED for example, and they obliterated the polar air mass. Every situation is different, and this one up coming does at least initially have some polar high parked to our N offering some resistance to that sort of easy temp/dp rebounding, but the high its self has lost that affect in the charts of eroding in place and is now moving as modeled. Some front end concern with mix action cannot be precluded, but I don't see a protracted icing that goes on and on for hours. There is not a whole heck of a lot of CAA on the backside of today's wave, either - you can actually see that in the FRH grid as the T1 level stay virtually static through 48 hours, and the T3 level is the one that cools, but only by a little.

Will have a better say on things by the end of tomorrow as we'll have a sensible/measured taste of the character of cold insert into the backside of today's wave, and if it's overperformed, then perhaps 3-5 hours of action might ensue. It's impossible to formulate a forecast for the public based on that internal thinking though - goood luck.

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Speaking of being buried in threads .... Meanwhile, the 0z GGEM stem wound a 30" by 55mph chocking blizzard

Didn't see that. Sadly it's day 9 and therefore offers minimal correlation to eventual reality. But it's the first good looking chart I've seen in a while. And it's got to start somewhere.

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I won't go OT but just this.

F0DAF3DC-2E9A-4A40-85F6-8D297755D0CA-5523-0000051D25349E46.jpg

Long time lurker( mostly) congrats to you and your wife on the new addition!! May the very best of your past be the worst of your future!! A lot of work follows up dad, but it is soooo worth it!!!

I live about 40 miles north of Alb right where Saratoga Warren and Washington counties meet.

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Didn't see that. Sadly it's day 9 and therefore offers minimal correlation to eventual reality. But it's the first good looking chart I've seen in a while. And it's got to start somewhere.

Do you actually have to see a storm for it to be favorable? This was just yesterday, btw.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zECMWFENS6-10day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

18zENS6-10day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif18zENS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNH.gif

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I should. I actually went to school for meteorology (SUNY Albany 85-89). Actually did some grad work in meteorology and then decided to devote my career to teaching today's youth earth science. I am constantly humbled by the level of knowledge on this board. After enough beers I could probably piss over the border into New England, so I guess I can consider myself a NE poster.

post here more!

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I don't think all that much has changed overnight and today. Gradient pattern. There are indications that we could be on the sweet side at times between 12/15-31.

In the words of the great Lewis Kiniski a kiss is just the sweet end of 30 feet of small intestines.

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I don't think all that much has changed overnight and today. Gradient pattern. There are indications that we could be on the sweet side at times between 12/15-31.

Agreed. A few weenies went overboard earlier. Glad we have a few level heads on here. Socks post last nite may have been top 5 worst in board history
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