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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Wow...you're off to a slow start.

You are someone who is due for a bad year lol

I'm sure he will pull off 9" in a SWFE this month while we get 3" and a flip to pellets after being modeled to whiff him 3 days before.

Then we will get a "SNE Special" redeveloper that is progged to scrape his area and he will get 10" of fluff with 25 to 1 ratios in some weenie frontogenesis band near the outer fringe of the precip shield.

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I'm sure he will pull off 9" in a SWFE this month while we get 3" and a flip to pellets after being modeled to whiff him 3 days before.

Then we will get a "SNE Special" redeveloper that is progged to scrape his area and he will get 10" of fluff with 25 to 1 ratios in some weenie frontogenesis band near the outer fringe of the precip shield.

Seriously...he never loses. :lol:

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A North Atlantic thumb ridge is okay but the vortex is going to be rapidly reconsolidating over this area in the stratosphere. The wave 1 and poleward EP vectors are promising (ECMWF has been consistent with poleward EP vectors mid-dec) but it won't be fast enough for that period. I'm wondering if this thumb ridge is nothing more than upstream ridging from tropospheric PV and won't be much of a factor.

ECMWF ensembles seem very La Niña-like with anomaly placements through the foreseeable future. Ugly pattern down my way / Mid Atlantic.

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A North Atlantic thumb ridge is okay but the vortex is going to be rapidly reconsolidating over this area in the stratosphere. The wave 1 and poleward EP vectors are promising (ECMWF has been consistent with poleward EP vectors mid-dec) but it won't be fast enough for that period. I'm wondering if this thumb ridge is nothing more than upstream ridging from tropospheric PV and won't be much of a factor.

ECMWF ensembles seem very La Niña-like with anomaly placements through the foreseeable future. Ugly pattern down my way / Mid Atlantic.

Yup. I know Don S is a bit more bullish on cooler weather toward the end of the month, but I'm not seeing it yet.

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Yup. I know Don S is a bit more bullish on cooler weather toward the end of the month, but I'm not seeing it yet.

Don't get me wrong, very impressive warming developing in eastern Siberia currently. But I'm thinking an ineffective NAO signal for now (I was already wrong with how the early Dec stratosphere-AO-NAO relationship would work once from a month out so you know ... lol) but becoming more effective entering the New Year.

Maybe we get the real deal for New Years or just a little after.

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Don't get me wrong, very impressive warming developing in eastern Siberia currently. But I'm thinking an ineffective NAO signal for now (I was already wrong with how the early Dec stratosphere-AO-NAO relationship would work once from a month out so you know ... lol) but becoming more effective entering the New Year.

Maybe we get the real deal for New Years or just a little after.

Yeah, I mean, if the models are right, I don't see how we're not +NAO at least through Christmas, even with the potential for a -AO (of course, like you, given my December forecast around Nov 15, maybe I shouldn't be doing much pontificating either :lol:)

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I do like that the -NAO is getting more support going forward, that's good to see.

Well like I told you a while back, if it is going to help anyone it is going to be you Upper Midwest-Lakes-New England folk. But that still means a lousy start to the LES season which I think we both agreed on was the most likely outcome. Although, there are some decent cold shots being modeled to change that around in the medium range.

Overall the amount of warming was more than I expected but a lot of things did end up working out. I am very impressed with the models and the stratosphere along with the typical AO relationships and what they meant.

It is always the interpretation that gets skewed... womp

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Overall the amount of warming was more than I expected but a lot of things did end up working out. I am very impressed with the models and the stratosphere along with the typical AO relationships and what they meant.

It is always the interpretation that gets skewed... womp

lol this. Although try telling my bosses that at work...

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