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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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hopefully kevin will apologize to me for laughing at me over a week ago when i said "torch period" was coming.

If we look back at consensus predictions we had a cool to cold early December, a torch around Christmas and a change back in early January. Fast forward we have been warm, are about to get warmer, probably aren't going to go below normal at all in December and are in jeopardy of staying warmer than normal most of the month. Warmth always performs or over performs, cold expectations underperform or are transient.

If I don't see solid indications by the Monday morning model runs of if they've gone the wrong way again ill be rich camarilloing December. The pacific is dominant and unrelenting and although the deadliest catch guys are having an easier time of it this year the consistent vortex is a menace for us.

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Panicked weenies flopping around after one bad model suite. So much angst on here.

Angst? Lol, this is hysterical I dont think anyone is anxious about anything, perhaps just realizing that patience is required and that the Euro took a step back along with its Ensembles along with the 6zgfs. Like Will, and countless others have said, next weeks storm (15th) could easily cut and it probably will. We will eventually get there, someday.

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So now actually talking about model output is considered weenie panic. Have to say things have gone downhill in this forum.

Quality discussion is calling for winter to lock in on November 25th, quality discussion is saying the torch is muted, quality discussion is calling for 4-8 inches, quality discussion is calling for ice storms or frozen when temps are 20 degrees above freezing, then dismissing the one model you dry hump all year when it has a horrific run along with its Ensembles.

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So now actually talking about model output is considered weenie panic. Have to say things have gone downhill in this forum.

Any discussion that isn't red tag endorsed....

After a few weeks of the change being 2 weeks away it either has to happen or we realize the warmanistas were somewhat right. aside of ct blizz and his neighbor showing us their snowsticks last week this has been an uneventful period.

I'm still optimistic but it's hard to deny aside or some sandy induced mayhem we have mostly been mired in a pacific induced toaster bath.

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Any discussion that isn't red tag endorsed....

After a few weeks of the change being 2 weeks away it either has to happen or we realize the warmanistas were somewhat right. aside of ct blizz and his neighbor showing us their snowsticks last week this has been an uneventful period.

I'm still optimistic but it's hard to deny aside or some sandy induced mayhem we have mostly been mired in a pacific induced toaster bath.

not a bad post, pretty boring lately.
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Is the K~RUGER model still calling for some or mostly frozen for the interior?

Sunday Night A chance of rain showers, snow showers, and sleet before 2am, then rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

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If we look back at consensus predictions we had a cool to cold early December, a torch around Christmas and a change back in early January. Fast forward we have been warm, are about to get warmer, probably aren't going to go below normal at all in December and are in jeopardy of staying warmer than normal most of the month. Warmth always performs or over performs, cold expectations underperform or are transient.

If I don't see solid indications by the Monday morning model runs of if they've gone the wrong way again ill be rich camarilloing December. The pacific is dominant and unrelenting and although the deadliest catch guys are having an easier time of it this year the consistent vortex is a menace for us.

Nice reference...at least you did not name Brooks Branard

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If we look back at consensus predictions we had a cool to cold early December, a torch around Christmas and a change back in early January. Fast forward we have been warm, are about to get warmer, probably aren't going to go below normal at all in December and are in jeopardy of staying warmer than normal most of the month. Warmth always performs or over performs, cold expectations underperform or are transient.

If I don't see solid indications by the Monday morning model runs of if they've gone the wrong way again ill be rich camarilloing December. The pacific is dominant and unrelenting and although the deadliest catch guys are having an easier time of it this year the consistent vortex is a menace for us.

i think the first week to 10 days were always looked at as a mild / transition period. at least going back toward turkey day.

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I don't think people are panicking...there is nothing to panic about to be honest. It's not like we have been tracking some big coastal whose track is in doubt. There is simply not much going on to get excited about. Potential snow and cold keep getting pushed back much like last year. Most of the cold shots were transient and underperformed, but this is what is has been for almost two years now. We just had out first below normal month temp wise in 20 months! This has been a long and sustained warm, and mostly dry period of weather. I think we just need to be patient and although it is frustrating it will come at some point. I think we need to stop setting dates by which the "pattern will flip" cause that ain't happening anytime soon.

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