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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Somewhat surprising, given that the balloon had +1.8C at 873 mb over GYX. You would think even a healthy dose of wet bulbing would have trouble getting that sounding sub-freezing. Must have been a pocket of drier air over NH contributing to that, because we were saturated at +1.8C here.

It was brief and stopped. We are at 700 feet here and the roads weren't covered below about 600 feet. Now it is just holding steady at 33 but the coating remains, parts of the road are slightly covered and the tree limbs have a thin coating of ice.

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You can't be serious about the pattern coming up

The pattern looks pretty horrible for the next two weeks...the -NAO is probably transient and doesn't make much difference with renewed low heights over Alaska and an offshore Pacific high that guarantees a -PNA. Towards Day 10 on the Euro and GFS, the polar vortex also starts to retreat towards Asia, allowing for Canada to torch. Not a pretty regime by any means. I think things have gone downhill from what we were seeing a few days ago.

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The pattern looks pretty horrible for the next two weeks...the -NAO is probably transient and doesn't make much difference with renewed low heights over Alaska and an offshore Pacific high that guarantees a -PNA. Towards Day 10 on the Euro and GFS, the polar vortex also starts to retreat towards Asia, allowing for Canada to torch. Not a pretty regime by any means. I think things have gone downhill from what we were seeing a few days ago.

The hope can be that in the day 8-15 window there have been multiple changes that didn't come to pass. Here's to hoping the negative changes you mention are more model gymnastics.

The winter of oscillations is what this will be all about. The pattern will be in flux most of the winter but we should have 7-10 day windows of excellent opportunities.

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The pattern looks pretty horrible for the next two weeks...the -NAO is probably transient and doesn't make much difference with renewed low heights over Alaska and an offshore Pacific high that guarantees a -PNA. Towards Day 10 on the Euro and GFS, the polar vortex also starts to retreat towards Asia, allowing for Canada to torch. Not a pretty regime by any means. I think things have gone downhill from what we were seeing a few days ago.

100% spot on, nice post

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The pattern looks pretty horrible for the next two weeks...the -NAO is probably transient and doesn't make much difference with renewed low heights over Alaska and an offshore Pacific high that guarantees a -PNA. Towards Day 10 on the Euro and GFS, the polar vortex also starts to retreat towards Asia, allowing for Canada to torch. Not a pretty regime by any means. I think things have gone downhill from what we were seeing a few days ago.

100% spot on, nice post

New England does pretty well in patterns that look similar to what is being forecast. This isn't the NYC forum, people...

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