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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Shouldn't have been too hard last winter... not much to tally up :lol:

Why did you have to do that....verification purposes or other reason?

LOL believe it or not it was a huge pain in the ass! everything was a dusting or ice-storm changing to rain west of the greens and hanging on in some valleys to the east :axe: I couldnt believe how you guys would still manage to get frozen precip in the absolutely warmest of winter patterns...and for that reason It was pretty brutal, but at least you will likely see plenty of all snow events up there this winter (which are much easier to go off of Doug).

Not for verification, we provided certified data for snow removal contractors and such.

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LOL believe it or not it was a huge pain in the ass! everything was a dusting or ice-storm changing to rain west of the greens and hanging on in some valleys to the east :axe: I couldnt believe how you guys would still manage to get frozen precip in the absolutely warmest of winter patterns...and for that reason It was pretty brutal, but at least you will likely see plenty of all snow events up there this winter (which are much easier to go off of Doug).

Not for verification, we provided certified data for snow removal contractors and such.

Yeah, having everything be all snow so far has certainly made things easier, and I'm glad to see that that should continue down the road, for the most part. Though the next mixed bag event in a few days might be annoying.

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The GFS operational run wasn't very encouraging for snow outside of Maine. Sunday night looked warm (actually it looks cold until precip arrives), not much precip on the cold side of the front on Mon-Tue, and no follow-up wave on Tue-Wed. The shortwaves rounding the base of the longwave trof never get to the downstream side before dampening and the structure remains positive tilted... at least until the next threat around day 9. But by then the trof axis once again looks a little too far west.

That said, I suspect the cold could overperform for maybe a little snow north to ice on Sun night. Low level cold should hang on until at least Monday morning through the interior. I still believe in the possibility of some anafrontal precip (esp across NNE) and/or a 2nd wave like the Euro has been showing, but the GFS and its ensembles don't currently offer much support. Thereafter we're into fantasy land before any tangible threats emmerge. The hint of a supportive pattern could just as easily send another low through Syracuse as it could bring some snow to SNE. Lately it's been pretty tough to get even a modeled snowstorm on the GFS.

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getting a mix of snow sleet and freezing rain that is covering the road in a slushy mix. this was not predicted. started as light rain and we were supposed to get frz rain and rain only.

Somewhat surprising, given that the balloon had +1.8C at 873 mb over GYX. You would think even a healthy dose of wet bulbing would have trouble getting that sounding sub-freezing. Must have been a pocket of drier air over NH contributing to that, because we were saturated at +1.8C here.

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