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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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One of the most underrated winters....def. top 4 fav for me, personally.

See why you mentioned triple phaser potential this season.

Haha well I have that year in the back of my mind but I also know it is an entirely different world now. Similar patterns may yield different results...but how different is the question.

When the vortex weakens and different vorts amplify along its edge expanding the weakened vortex out with big waves chugging along underneath....well...you know what can happen.

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I know you said you didn't remember but one of my top stratospheric analogs for this winter post-1979 was 1992-93 and 1998-99. I find it a little interesting how the ECMWF took on a 92 look to some degree.

That cutoff-ish look definitely reminds me of '92.

Lets just hope we don't get Dec '98 to appear, lol.

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Yes, I think we are in a pretty good spot here going forward

Yeah that storm is definitely intriguing... I could see a NNE threat with that one, then we smoke cirrus for a follow up low sometime near the 20th when SNE cleans up.

Sort of like the transition period in a gradient pattern when each low tracks progressively further south/east.

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LOL, yeah too many low height colors in the west and alaska...im hopeful we can get lucky in the 18th-20th if it times perfectly right behind the first new england shot on the 15th-16th...

I can't wait for my first changeover, it's very nostalgic. It will be just like when we were kids!

:axe:

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Yeah that storm is definitely intriguing... I could see a NNE threat with that one, then we smoke cirrus for a follow up low sometime near the 20th when SNE cleans up.

Sort of like the transition period in a gradient pattern when each low tracks progressively further south/east.

I don't know, I liked the 12z GFS run and its ensembles, It looked pretty snowy for all 3 systems but its out in no mans land right now anyways so who knows what we end up with

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the Euro storm would be better for you...you'd probably clean up actually...it has a bit more N/S gradient to temps than the Xmas '02 storm. Not that details on a D9 OP prog are relevant...but just sayin'.

Yeah we're back on the giant signal you and HM and I were talking about last night after a hiatus of sorts...

Part of me has to think that because Kevin wants it so much, something will perturb the field and set into a motion a chain of events that leads to one inevitable certain conclusion of his outrage, though.

we'll see -

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I don't know, I liked the 12z GFS run and its ensembles, It looked pretty snowy for all 3 systems but its out in no mans land right now anyways so who knows what we end up with

matt noyes always said the ooz and 12z are the best runs to view 6z and 18z are not the most reliable but we will see.

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matt noyes always said the ooz and 12z are the best runs to view 6z and 18z are not the most reliable but we will see.

This is vastly overstated. 00z/12z do have more data available to ingest, but 06z/18z have vast amounts of data input that most people don't consider (jumping instead to the lack of raobs).

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nah, i don't see anything about this 18z GFS run that is any more annoying than its predecessors.

it doesn't look as though it's correctly resolving the cold in the bl for the next system. 18z NAM shows something more reasonable wrt to the retarded warm fropa. Though it may mean the difference between 32.1F straight light rain, and busting into the 50s.

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North of the pike, FTW:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

HIGHLIGHTS....

* HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS SUN AND MON.

* LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY BRINGING A WINTRY MIX NORTH OF THE PIKE.

* QUIET WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DETAILS...

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