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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Ill take my chances as Euro 2 m are likely too warm

Your 850s are too warm as well...precip is leaving between 18z and 00z when your 850s drop to 0...even then the surface is likely warmer with high thicknesses still being shown...you are in the hills so ill give you a shot, but this run does not do it aloft or at the surface... 15th and beyond is looking real nice on all guidance today.

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It looks cold enough over the interior to me...maybe a 34F snow dropping to a 27F snow by the end. Might be a little cold rain to start.

Its not a lot of QPF though. Maybe someone would scrape out an inch or two.

I'm on my phone so can't see well. didn't precip move in with 850s like 2 to 4C for a good chunk of the area?

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Your 850s are too warm as well...precip is leaving between 18z and 00z when your 850s drop to 0...even then the surface is likely warmer with high thicknesses still being shown...you are in the hills so ill give you a shot, but this run does not do it aloft or at the surface... 15th and beyond is looking real nice on all guidance today.

See Wills post
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Your 850s are too warm as well...precip is leaving between 18z and 00z when your 850s drop to 0...even then the surface is likely warmer with high thicknesses still being shown...you are in the hills so ill give you a shot, but this run does not do it aloft or at the surface... 15th and beyond is looking real nice on all guidance today.

Agreed. The 0z and 12z cool after much of the precip is over in SNE. Just don't see the lock for snow "yet".

On a side note CT Blizz and Forky need to hug out their differences.

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Well I guess forky is right at that time stamp and when it comes to the 50/50 low area...but I was referring to the whole 11-15 day mean where it holds onto + heights stronger, especially at the end of the run, versus 00z...I also mentioned in my post that it was still east based at day 10 (which is the image forky posted). These details dont matter though

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It looks cold enough over the interior to me...maybe a 34F snow dropping to a 27F snow by the end. Might be a little cold rain to start.

Its not a lot of QPF though. Maybe someone would scrape out an inch or two.

Looks marginal at best south of you. I could see ORH north getting an inch or so on the grass...light precip rates and marginal temp profile plus saturated warm ground from Mondays rain will make this hard for most spots. Maybe a East Slope to ORH north into southern VT/NH type deal?

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I'm on my phone so can't see well. didn't precip move in with 850s like 2 to 4C for a good chunk of the area?

850 temps drop to 0C over ORH around 102 hours...between 102-105 hours, about 0.15" qpf falls...the first half of that would probably be light rain or sloppy mangled flakes. By 105 hours, the 850 temps are about -2 to -3C over central MA with -2C maybe into N CT...0C line running through SE MA and C RI to near Old LYme, CT. Sfc temps by this poitn are 32F in ORH hills/Berkshires/Monads. Between 105-108 another 0.10"-0.15" or so falls from central MA eastward. This is the 3 hour period when we could probably pick up an inch or two.

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Yeah that's all we're saying. Some people do whatever they can to have other folks not get snow. Bizarre behavior

Well even if that sloppy mess was progged to give me a coating of slush 5 days out I would care less. If you get flakes I'll be happy for you but that kind of snow is nothing I would miss or be upset about no having lol.

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LOL this wasn't a contest. Most others agreed. I also think you are hoping for Tuesday which may be rushing a bit, but perhaps you can squeeze it an inch.

Hopefully 12/15 pans out. Would be nice to get something around here but it's not a lock. Pattern is good... not great.

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Well even if that sloppy mess was progged to give me a coating of slush 5 days out I would care less. If you get flakes I'll be happy for you but that kind of snow is nothing I would miss or be upset about no having lol.

An inch or three in the grand scheme is not a big deal. But I'll take a few inches of wet snow as we wait for the bigger storm next weekend. I don't know who wouldn't get psyched up a bit or turn down a wet 1-3 inch snowfall
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I meant the D9 redevloper followed by like a D12 or something Miller A?

Yeah the pattern behind it looks really good too...I love the ridge in the plains getting folded up into an omega block which pinches off any threat of a transient torch. The D9 Miller B storm would become a nice 50/50 with that west based block up to the north. Euro OP really builds the NAO block west this run.

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Tom bradys wife had her baby before scooters wife...now the race is still on between mapgirl and scooters wife...who will come in second? And will it ssnow on their birthday?

Mapgirl has a wife? LOL, good thing Randy Moss was not there to catch Bradys baby, he would have dropped it. Go Giants
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