NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Ill take my chances as Euro 2 m are likely too warm Your 850s are too warm as well...precip is leaving between 18z and 00z when your 850s drop to 0...even then the surface is likely warmer with high thicknesses still being shown...you are in the hills so ill give you a shot, but this run does not do it aloft or at the surface... 15th and beyond is looking real nice on all guidance today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 actually are stronger with it versus 00z...not that these details matter though this far out..blocking is positioned east based from scandinavia to northern greenland at day 10 still. Thanks Chris for clarifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It looks cold enough over the interior to me...maybe a 34F snow dropping to a 27F snow by the end. Might be a little cold rain to start.Its not a lot of QPF though. Maybe someone would scrape out an inch or two. I'm on my phone so can't see well. didn't precip move in with 850s like 2 to 4C for a good chunk of the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Your 850s are too warm as well...precip is leaving between 18z and 00z when your 850s drop to 0...even then the surface is likely warmer with high thicknesses still being shown...you are in the hills so ill give you a shot, but this run does not do it aloft or at the surface... 15th and beyond is looking real nice on all guidance today. See Wills post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Your 850s are too warm as well...precip is leaving between 18z and 00z when your 850s drop to 0...even then the surface is likely warmer with high thicknesses still being shown...you are in the hills so ill give you a shot, but this run does not do it aloft or at the surface... 15th and beyond is looking real nice on all guidance today. Agreed. The 0z and 12z cool after much of the precip is over in SNE. Just don't see the lock for snow "yet". On a side note CT Blizz and Forky need to hug out their differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Tuesday is garbage for most in sne....show me the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 No need to talk about the ridiculous weenie flakes on the Euro next Tuesday... the storm next weekend looks much more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 No need to talk about the ridiculous weenie flakes on the Euro next Tuesday... the storm next weekend looks much more fun. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Tom bradys wife had her baby before scooters wife...now the race is still on between mapgirl and scooters wife...who will come in second? And will it ssnow on their birthday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well I guess forky is right at that time stamp and when it comes to the 50/50 low area...but I was referring to the whole 11-15 day mean where it holds onto + heights stronger, especially at the end of the run, versus 00z...I also mentioned in my post that it was still east based at day 10 (which is the image forky posted). These details dont matter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Funny to see the different perspectives from the valley and coastal folks vs the interior folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 It looks cold enough over the interior to me...maybe a 34F snow dropping to a 27F snow by the end. Might be a little cold rain to start. Its not a lot of QPF though. Maybe someone would scrape out an inch or two. Looks marginal at best south of you. I could see ORH north getting an inch or so on the grass...light precip rates and marginal temp profile plus saturated warm ground from Mondays rain will make this hard for most spots. Maybe a East Slope to ORH north into southern VT/NH type deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Just looked at the GFS op run through D16. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Funny to see the different perspectives from the valley and coastal folks vs the interior folks Maybe you squeeze out an inch or two if things break right but it really looks like NBD to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Funny to see the different perspectives from the valley and coastal folks vs the interior folks Most of us live in the lower elevations, and on the cp.....but I'm not jealous of your weenie flakes...don't really care. I'll win when it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 op Euro also looks like it would have some follow up fun a few days later with a developing Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'm on my phone so can't see well. didn't precip move in with 850s like 2 to 4C for a good chunk of the area? 850 temps drop to 0C over ORH around 102 hours...between 102-105 hours, about 0.15" qpf falls...the first half of that would probably be light rain or sloppy mangled flakes. By 105 hours, the 850 temps are about -2 to -3C over central MA with -2C maybe into N CT...0C line running through SE MA and C RI to near Old LYme, CT. Sfc temps by this poitn are 32F in ORH hills/Berkshires/Monads. Between 105-108 another 0.10"-0.15" or so falls from central MA eastward. This is the 3 hour period when we could probably pick up an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Funny to see the different perspectives from the valley and coastal folks vs the interior folks What about the interior valleys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Interior nuke at D9 on the Euro, lol. Actually, it might be nooses for Kevin near the 0C line while Ray is nude along a CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Maybe you squeeze out an inch or two if things break right but it really looks like NBD to be honest. Yeah that's all we're saying. Some people do whatever they can to have other folks not get snow. Bizarre behavior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Interior nuke at D9 on the Euro, lol. Actually, it might be nooses for Kevin near the 0C line while Ray is nude along a CF. Yeah that would be a bit ugly for Kevin but Ray would clean up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 op Euro also looks like it would have some follow up fun a few days later with a developing Miller A? Day 9 looks like a bowling ball,redeveloper fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yeah that's all we're saying. Some people do whatever they can to have other folks not get snow. Bizarre behavior Well even if that sloppy mess was progged to give me a coating of slush 5 days out I would care less. If you get flakes I'll be happy for you but that kind of snow is nothing I would miss or be upset about no having lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Our epic stretch begins Tuesday pm. Scooter nailed it. Off by 2 days. Congrats LOL this wasn't a contest. Most others agreed. I also think you are hoping for Tuesday which may be rushing a bit, but perhaps you can squeeze it an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Day 9 looks like a bowling ball,redeveloper fwiw. I meant the D9 redevloper followed by like a D12 or something Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Looks like great pattern 12/15-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 LOL this wasn't a contest. Most others agreed. I also think you are hoping for Tuesday which may be rushing a bit, but perhaps you can squeeze it an inch. Hopefully 12/15 pans out. Would be nice to get something around here but it's not a lock. Pattern is good... not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well even if that sloppy mess was progged to give me a coating of slush 5 days out I would care less. If you get flakes I'll be happy for you but that kind of snow is nothing I would miss or be upset about no having lol. An inch or three in the grand scheme is not a big deal. But I'll take a few inches of wet snow as we wait for the bigger storm next weekend. I don't know who wouldn't get psyched up a bit or turn down a wet 1-3 inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I meant the D9 redevloper followed by like a D12 or something Miller A? Yeah the pattern behind it looks really good too...I love the ridge in the plains getting folded up into an omega block which pinches off any threat of a transient torch. The D9 Miller B storm would become a nice 50/50 with that west based block up to the north. Euro OP really builds the NAO block west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Tom bradys wife had her baby before scooters wife...now the race is still on between mapgirl and scooters wife...who will come in second? And will it ssnow on their birthday? Mapgirl has a wife? LOL, good thing Randy Moss was not there to catch Bradys baby, he would have dropped it. Go Giants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.