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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Not that anyone cares but whats up with this

PF

I really did not think it was supposed to be this cold... not even close to our hourly forecast.

At noon we are forecast to be:

3,600ft...36F

2,600ft...40F

1,500ft...44F

Actual is:

3,600ft...26F

2,600ft...28F

1,500ft...32F

It keeps dropping too... temp has fallen about 5-8F across the board since 5am.

We'll be 10-12F lower than guidance today.

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Not that anyone cares but whats up with this

PF

I really did not think it was supposed to be this cold... not even close to our hourly forecast.

At noon we are forecast to be:

3,600ft...36F

2,600ft...40F

1,500ft...44F

Actual is:

3,600ft...26F

2,600ft...28F

1,500ft...32F

It keeps dropping too... temp has fallen about 5-8F across the board since 5am.

We'll be 10-12F lower than guidance today.

Doesn't look unexpected to me. They had close to 540 thicknesses this morning.

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'09-'10, '11-'12, and so far this season....exclude '10-'11, and that 3/4 season stretch has been about the unluckiest I have seen.

Yeah NE MA has been in a bit of a slump since 2008-2009...2010-2011 was great for everyone. You haven't had really any jackpots since '08-'09...maybe that one weenie event on Feb 27, 2011.

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'09-'10, '11-'12, and so far this season....exclude '10-'11, and that 3/4 season stretch has been about the unluckiest I have seen.

Well if you think back to other seasons...you and I also had a great stretch. I know you hate to hear this, but it just evens out in the long run sometimes. '09-'10 really was a crazy fluke that we couldn't do better. I think we'll be fine this winter.

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Yeah NE MA has been in a bit of a slump since 2008-2009...2010-2011 was great for everyone. You haven't had really any jackpots since '08-'09...maybe that one weenie event on Feb 27, 2011.

Yea, that was a tuck scenario....

I have missed out on about 4 EPIC events....even what $hit show events we had last season, I got missed in every direction.

I told you again on Nov 7th like I did in the halloweenie event....the deformation band collpasing over you is such pipe dream like the inverted torugh garbage.

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The loading pattern of +PNA specifically has high height anomalies just interior to the West Coast of the US and Canada, most centered over BC/Alberta, extending over the pole. A broad ridge over the ocean, with low height anomalies over the western US is a -PNA (which is the pattern mostly being modeled).

The LR has a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is usually very good for New England.

Before that there is a short term spike in the PNA ridging region...but the index number never makes it to +PNA because of the Aleutian ridge.

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Well if you think back to other seasons...you and I also had a great stretch. I know you hate to hear this, but it just evens out in the long run sometimes. '09-'10 really was a crazy fluke that we couldn't do better. I think we'll be fine this winter.

Well, it needs to start evening out because so far, it hasn't.

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The LR has a -PNA/-NAO pattern which is usually very good for New England.

Before that there is a short term spike in the PNA ridging region...but the index number never makes it to +PNA because of the Aleutian ridge.

yeah, I agree with that. Just saw some talk about a +PNA which is not likely, save a transient one for a few days.

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