CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 OT but an interesting stat (courtesy of Joe Lundberg's blog) There are many cities in the middle of the country that are in the midst of their longest snow drought in recorded history. For example, Des Moines, Iowa has now reached 277 consecutive days without measurable snow. In other words, not since March 4 has there been any snow fall of at least a tenth of an inch! Chicago is on the cusp of their longest such streak of 280 days that dates back to 1994, and if they get through Sunday with none, a new record will have been set there. Those areas are about to get a snowstorm, especially west and north of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 OT but an interesting stat (courtesy of Joe Lundberg's blog) There are many cities in the middle of the country that are in the midst of their longest snow drought in recorded history. For example, Des Moines, Iowa has now reached 277 consecutive days without measurable snow. In other words, not since March 4 has there been any snow fall of at least a tenth of an inch! Chicago is on the cusp of their longest such streak of 280 days that dates back to 1994, and if they get through Sunday with none, a new record will have been set there. I'm surprised Chicago's record is 1994. I guess they got shafted late in '93-'94 winter. I would have expected it to be coming off a torch winter like this year is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 What a lovely pattern that was on the long range gfs for new england...the spacing of those waves ripping across the country was pretty great for you guys, particularly the 19th-20th wave Wouldn't that be sick with some nice snow prior to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 That Day 7-9 storm on GFS, I doubt it would be a cutter with the confluence & blocking...Lets hope this west based nao is true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'm surprised Chicago's record is 1994. I guess they got shafted late in '93-'94 winter. I would have expected it to be coming off a torch winter like this year is. Two month winter in 1993-94 at ORD, for all intents and purposes. December: 1.2" January: 14.2" February: 26.2" March: T April: T Last measurable was the last day of met winter that season, 0.8". Next one was December 6, 1994 (4.0"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Like the 12z GEFS in the 15-22nd range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Wouldn't that be sick with some nice snow prior to Christmas. Yes it would be..I know its the 11-15 day gfs op and people may think were being weenies for discussing it on this particular occasion where it shows several storms, however, this depiction is entirely plausible when you compare it to the ensemble predictions in the 11-15 day... The key will continue to be how will the nao block manifest itself in the long range, along with the intricacies of these waves propagating across the country? The 15-16th and 18th-19th potentials both show up very clearly on the 12z ensembles coming in right now by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 That 97 storm would have driven me to smoke tailpipe. Thankfully the boards weren't around for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yes it would be..I know its the 11-15 day gfs op and people may think were being weenies for discussing it on this particular occasion where it shows several storms, however, this depiction is entirely plausible when you compare it to the ensemble predictions in the 11-15 day... The key will continue to be how will the nao block manifest itself in the long range, along with the intricacies of these waves propagating across the country? The 15-16th and 18th-19th potentials both show up very clearly on the 12z ensembles coming in right now by the way. I'm keeping an eye on that 15th time too. Not that it will be big, but as some othets have said...sneaky appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Pretty much have to agree with this from NCEP... 000 FXUS02 KWBC 061903 PMDEPD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 202 PM EST THU DEC 06 2012 VALID 12Z SUN DEC 09 2012 - 12Z THU DEC 13 2012 THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A STABLE AND WELL AGREED UPON LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURING AN ERN PAC MEAN RIDGE AND POSITIVELY TILTED NOAM MEAN TROF WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING AROUND THE TOP OF AN AMPLIFIED ERN PACIFIC RIDGE AND CONTINUING INTO THE DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROF...THOUGH ENOUGH CLUSTERING EXISTS TO IDENTIFY PLAUSIBLE REASONS TO BUTT BANG COMMON CIVILITY OUT OF THE TYPE OF HOLIDAY WEATHER INSTILLED IN THEIR COLLECTIVE BODY OF EXPERIENCES AND SENTIMENTS. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PARADIGM ONE WAY OR THE OTHER HOWEVER PHYSICALLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE ONLY BAD UNWANTED RESULT WILL RELENTLESSLY COME TO REALIZATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 When will John realize its not funny at all when he does that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 This would be an amazing pattern if it pans out....weak SE ridge...low heights near New foundland and good supply of arctic cold to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'm keeping an eye on that 15th time too. Not that it will be big, but as some othets have said...sneaky appeal. Yeah that one has highest appeal for northern new england and certainly bares watching down to you as well..But not so much further south. Now IF we can get the follow up close enough behind on the 18th-19th, then that potential not only has high appeal to you, but also for the northern mid-atl crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 This would be an amazing pattern if it pans out....weak SE ridge...low heights near New foundland and good supply of arctic cold to the north. I posted something in your thread about that. Pretty nice looking overal if it happened. That weenie lobe near Sable island would help us out with high pressure to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 That 97 storm would have driven me to smoke tailpipe. Thankfully the boards weren't around for that Looks like it was warm south of the Pike. CAD signature with hp in ME but a pretty weak system in general, open in the mid-levels. That's one of the only ways the valley can avoid severe underperformance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yeah that one has highest appeal for northern new england and certainly bares watching down to you as well..But not so much further south. Now IF we can get the follow up close enough behind on the 18th-19th, then that potential not only has high appeal to you, but also for the northern mid-atl crew. I agree, that could be areas south into the game too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 That 97 storm would have driven me to smoke tailpipe. Thankfully the boards weren't around for that You are due for a tailpipe hit or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 AMOUT it took me 2 years to learn that AMOUNT was not you just screaming "amounts! amounts! how much?!" I realize now that it is a pneumonic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Nah, I hear ya....just because I laid some bun, doesn't mean that fail to comprehend, nor disagree. I'm sure it won't be the last bun that you lay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 the gfes backed off on the strength of the west based -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The last frames of the run look like they were ran in Kevin's basement It pushes the NAO blocking all the way back to Hudson Bay. I'm pretty skeptical of that happening...but if it did....it would definitely prolong the wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I think I need to get the ol SWFE t-shirt out for sunday night here...looks like a classic nailbiter. lol. front end dumpage that only changes over after the bulk of the precip is through leaving a coating of glaze on top of the snow pack ensuring that it stays around until the permapack builds the following week and then we don't see the ground till April kinda thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 the gfes backed off on the strength of the west based -nao actually are stronger with it versus 00z...not that these details matter though this far out..blocking is positioned east based from scandinavia to northern greenland at day 10 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 That 97 storm would have driven me to smoke tailpipe. Thankfully the boards weren't around for that I had about 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Looks like it was warm south of the Pike. CAD signature with hp in ME but a pretty weak system in general, open in the mid-levels. That's one of the only ways the valley can avoid severe underperformance. Union had 7, so I prob had 6 or so where I am now, but I would have lost it with all you clowns in Mass weenie to ballz deep in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Union had 7, so I prob had 6 or so where I am now, but I would have lost it with all you clowns in Mass weenie to ballz deep in snow Why?? You had a snowpack, and that is all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Why?? You had a snowpack, and that is all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 actually are stronger with it versus 00z...not that these details matter though this far out..blocking is positioned east based from scandinavia to northern greenland at day 10 still. Nice grab FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Why?? You had a snowpack, and that is all that matters. The same reason you lost it in Jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Why?? You had a snowpack, and that is all that matters. LOL Kevin loves the snowpack argument because he can't grab the monster totals we can, aside from his 1-20 yr 20"+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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