CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Very often we see these second follow up waves drop a nice swath of light/ mod snows south of track of 1st low. Climo says possible Well there are two different things here. I'd rather have the GFS follow up wave, but the flow is a wee bit progressive. You can't rule out either solution, but what I am referring to, is the way the euro does this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I was just looking at the winter of '70-'71 because we had brought up Dec '70 in the pattern analogs....what a ridiculous winter that was here. The total snow (80") was not epic...it was solidly above average. But the snow cover definitely was epic. It never torched that winter. 108 consecutive days with 1" or more on the ground from Dec 12th to March 29th. 72 consecutive days with 12" or more on the ground from Dec 17th to Feb 26th. Now that is a winter. That beats 2000-2001 for sure. Though the depth never reached the epic '01 levels. As a young man 13 year's old and skiing every day it was heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I mentioned yesterday or the day before...anafront wave climo usually says go with the suppressed scenario. But this one definitely bears a bit of watching. That vortmax rounding the base has some punch to it, so perhaps we can amplify it enough into the cold side of the front. I think I need to get the ol SWFE t-shirt out for sunday night here...looks like a classic nailbiter. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 lol (umbrella pic). gfs ensembles seem to take the currently diving -AO and in a week let it rise to neurtral then in around the 20'th bring it to a further rise from 0 to 1. just taking note. seeing if this can switch to a longer - AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Torch after a few normal days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 No talk about the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 I miss severe weather conversations from the summer. The NE subforum is not quite the same in winter it seems. Let's fast forward to May. huh? Have you ever read it during the period before an actual threat or during an event? vivacious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 What a weenie 2nd half of the GFS run that was. There's def some potential in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 No talk about the GFS? About the three storms in the 15th-22nd period? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 What a weenie 2nd half of the GFS run that was. There's def some potential in that time frame. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 What a weenie 2nd half of the GFS run that was. There's def some potential in that time frame. Yeah I love those systems coming out of the SW Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 No talk about the GFS? Cutter for all than snowstorm 2-3 days later for all... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Torch after a few normal days? 2012/13 the winter of oscillation. GFS looks great. Multiple threats inbound after the 15th. We can now see the light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Cutter for all than snowstorm 2-3 days later for all... nice Looks like an active pattern might be setting up.Timeframe to watch is Dec 15-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 2012/13 the winter of oscillation. GFS looks great. Multiple threats inbound after the 15th. We can now see the light at the end of the tunnel. Vortex stretching with a strong, oscillating jet stream can be the backbone to a winter that ultimately leads to a triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Vortex stretching with a strong, oscillating jet stream can be the backbone to a winter that ultimately leads to a triple phaser. Very true. Bottom line we're seeing some terrific runs now. Forgetting the particulars on the OP GFS...we're going to have multiple storms passing through after the 15th and before Xmas. Outstanding. The boring weather is about to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 what was that event will that dropped unheard of snowfall rates across alot of metro west boston (near 495). like 20 inches in 6 hours over a few location. it wasn't that recent (more than a few years) but i think one town reported like 6- 7 inches of snow an hour, i remember hearing about it on here, and noone could explain in good detail what the reason was for such prolific snow rates. sorry sorta OT , just was looking for the date to look up the PNS. when you get a chance if you can let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 what was that event will that dropped unheard of snowfall rates across alot of metro west boston (near 495). like 20 inches in 6 hours over a few location. it wasn't that recent (more than a few years) but i think one town reported like 6- 7 inches of snow an hour, i remember hearing about it on here, and noone could explain in good detail what the reason was for such prolific snow rates. sorry sorta OT , just was looking for the date to look up the PNS. when you get a chance if you can let me know. Dec 23 1997? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 what was that event will that dropped unheard of snowfall rates across alot of metro west boston (near 495). like 20 inches in 6 hours over a few location. it wasn't that recent (more than a few years) but i think one town reported like 6- 7 inches of snow an hour, i remember hearing about it on here, and noone could explain in good detail what the reason was for such prolific snow rates. sorry sorta OT , just was looking for the date to look up the PNS. when you get a chance if you can let me know. 1997? 12/23 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Dec 23 1997? Yes that is what he is thinking of http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/DE249717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macriver Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'd rather have it than not, obviously...but if given the choice of a 3'er, followed by a warmup, or a 6"er locked and loaded...I'd take the Feb '69. That's kind of the camp I'm in. I'd sacrifice snow cover to get more significant storms (as if I had any say in it!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Dec 9, 2005, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 That was Ayer, MA in 1997.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Dec 9, 2005, too... Yeah, though I don't think anyone had 7" in one hour in that. Lot of 4" per hour reports and I remember a 5" per hour report or two. Him specifying 6-7" per hour I think narrows it to 12/23/97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Yeah, though I don't think anyone had 7" in one hour in that. Lot of 4" per hour reports and I remember a 5" per hour report or two. Him specifying 6-7" per hour I think narrows it to 12/23/97. I had at least 5" in an hour in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I had at least 5" in an hour in that one. Noreastermass128 had 7"/hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 WOW now that's something you don't see too often. Amherst jackpot 1210 PM EST WED DEC 24 1997 ...FRANKLIN COUNTY... CHARLEMONT FINAL 8.2 GREENFIELD FINAL 8.0 SUNDERLAND FINAL 6.0 SHELBURNE 1045 AM 6.0 ...HAMPDEN COUNTY... EAST BRIMFIELD FINAL 13.0 WESTFIELD 440 PM 9.5 AGAWAM 1215 PM 8.0 MONSON 150 PM 6.5 SPRINGFIELD 1050 AM 5.5 ...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY... AMHERST FINAL 16.0 WARE FINAL 9.0 NORTH HATFIELD 1215 PM 8.5 WORTHINGTON FINAL 7.1 ...TOLLAND COUNTY... UNION FINAL 7.0 VERNON FINAL 2.3 MANSFIELD FINAL 1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 thanks guys, thanks for link will. that's the one. unheard of rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 OT but an interesting stat (courtesy of Joe Lundberg's blog) There are many cities in the middle of the country that are in the midst of their longest snow drought in recorded history. For example, Des Moines, Iowa has now reached 277 consecutive days without measurable snow. In other words, not since March 4 has there been any snow fall of at least a tenth of an inch! Chicago is on the cusp of their longest such streak of 280 days that dates back to 1994, and if they get through Sunday with none, a new record will have been set there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 What a lovely pattern that was on the long range gfs for new england...the spacing of those waves ripping across the country was pretty great for you guys, particularly the 19th-20th wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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