CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 For weeks 3&4 it has the gradient? Well you can only tell so much in a smoothed out mean. I'm just assuming. Please understand weeks 3 and 4 are not gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Violently agree. Most folks on here don't care about snowpack. But to me that is a perfect winter with snow OTG at all times with refreshers. ✨Absolute heaven I'd rather have it than not, obviously...but if given the choice of a 3'er, followed by a warmup, or a 6"er locked and loaded...I'd take the Feb '69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I miss severe weather conversations from the summer. The NE subforum is not quite the same in winter it seems. Let's fast forward to May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well you can only tell so much in a smoothed out mean. I'm just assuming. Please understand weeks 3 and 4 are not gospel. Bullseye of snow right over Toronto. Just lie to him to make him happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Bullseye of snow right over Toronto. Just lie to him to make him happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'd target Ray before another guy does. just too many to pick from...it's like setting a bowl of mini snickers in front of me...not a good outcome...for the snickers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 toss the over amped euro From HPC this morn: THE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND ICE WILL RAMP UP WHERE THIS COLD AIR ESTABLISHES ITSELF. JUST HOW ENERGETIC AND AMPLIFIED THE FLOW BECOMES ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS NOT CLEAR, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THE MOST GUNG-HO IN THAT REGARD. AS A WHOLE, THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS PROVEN A MORE RELIABLE GUIDE TO THE UPCOMING ATMOSPHERIC SHUFFLING, SO BASED THE UPDATE PACKAGE HEAVILY THEREUPON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Bullseye of snow right over Toronto. Just lie to him to make him happy. Part of my sicko self wants to say they feature an AK vortex and furnace the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Part of my sicko self wants to say they feature an AK vortex and furnace the CONUS. You would but most that can comprehend would know your lying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Violently agree. Most folks on here don't care about snowpack. But to me that is a perfect winter with snow OTG at all times with refreshers. ✨Absolute heaven snow pack is the king, I totally agree occassional mini melts or ice to keep it solid in the middle and long lasting, but refresher after refresher is what I like. We had that here in 08-09, starting on Dec 17 and going straight thru mid or late march. it feeds on itself, makes the nights colder, hardens the pack, improves the antecedent airmass..good on so many levels. and then you get a 4 inch snow and look outside and there's 20 on the ground...it is like a never ending series of heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I'm hoping the gradient pattern can persist. I'm pretty sure the weeklies break everything down and grow pretty warm weeks 3-4, based on general circulation. They do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 snow pack is the king, I totally agree occassional mini melts or ice to keep it solid in the middle and long lasting, but refresher after refresher is what I like. We had that here in 08-09, starting on Dec 17 and going straight thru mid or late march. it feeds on itself, makes the nights colder, hardens the pack, improves the antecedent airmass..good on so many levels. and then you get a 4 inch snow and look outside and there's 20 on the ground...it is like a never ending series of heavy snows. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 GFS tries to develop a wave east of the Carolinas, but the pattern over the CONUS is too progressive as modeled on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 snow pack is the king, I totally agree occassional mini melts or ice to keep it solid in the middle and long lasting, but refresher after refresher is what I like. We had that here in 08-09, starting on Dec 17 and going straight thru mid or late march. it feeds on itself, makes the nights colder, hardens the pack, improves the antecedent airmass..good on so many levels. and then you get a 4 inch snow and look outside and there's 20 on the ground...it is like a never ending series of heavy snows. Its def my fetish. Just like Ray has a foot fetish, I have a snowpack fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 :weenie: I guess it's just us who really don't care that much given our location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 :weenie: Ray it is all about perception.... take a 4 inch storm that features a 2 hour burst of heavy snow and there are 2 feet on the ground...you think you've had a blizzard. I know you know this...that's why you gave 2 weenies not just one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 we have to keep this thread open until the baby is born.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 A loving tidbit from our friends at HPC. I love feeling vulnerable... WHILE THE ACTION FOCUSES ON THE WESTERN STATES, THE EAST WILL NOT BE WITHOUT INCIDENT. A WAVE ALONG THE POLAR FRONT DAYS 3 AND 4 IS EXPECTED TO BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO PAINT A STRIPE OF PRECIPITATION ASTRIDE THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW A GOOD BET FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE WILL RECEIVE SNOW, WITH AREAS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW ENGLAND VULNERABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 HPC maps show a coastal transfer sunday night monday morn. we have snow likely sunday night but rain monday. trending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 The ensembles actually have a small stripe of QPF over SNE from this follow up wave. I don't know...color me skepticle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Ray it is all about perception.... take a 4 inch storm that features a 2 hour burst of heavy snow and there are 2 feet on the ground...you think you've had a blizzard. I know you know this...that's why you gave 2 weenies not just one. Nah, I hear ya....just because I laid some bun, doesn't mean that fail to comprehend, nor disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 A loving tidbit from our friends at HPC. I love feeling vulnerable... WHILE THE ACTION FOCUSES ON THE WESTERN STATES, THE EAST WILL NOT BE WITHOUT INCIDENT. A WAVE ALONG THE POLAR FRONT DAYS 3 AND 4 IS EXPECTED TO BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO PAINT A STRIPE OF PRECIPITATION ASTRIDE THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW A GOOD BET FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF REAL ESTATE WILL RECEIVE SNOW, WITH AREAS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW ENGLAND VULNERABLE. AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 AMOUT Cisco loves the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Cisco loves the euro. Everything has it except Gfs op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Everything has it except Gfs op Well I just don't completely buy something like a 2-4" snow.Maybe the cape gets grazed, but that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well I just don't completely buy something like a 2-4" snow.Maybe the cape gets grazed, but that can change. I mentioned yesterday or the day before...anafront wave climo usually says go with the suppressed scenario. But this one definitely bears a bit of watching. That vortmax rounding the base has some punch to it, so perhaps we can amplify it enough into the cold side of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well I just don't completely buy something like a 2-4" snow.Maybe the cape gets grazed, but that can change. I haven't been paying attention...I'm going to get snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Well I just don't completely buy something like a 2-4" snow.Maybe the cape gets grazed, but that can change. Very often we see these second follow up waves drop a nice swath of light/ mod snows south of track of 1st low. Climo says possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I mentioned yesterday or the day before...anafront wave climo usually says go with the suppressed scenario. But this one definitely bears a bit of watching. That vortmax rounding the base has some punch to it, so perhaps we can amplify it enough into the cold side of the front. Yeah what I mean is the way the euro depicts this. This is a little different than what the GFS does, so I should specify that. I actually think the GFS makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I hate anafront hopes...but that is all we have at the moment.... I also hate when forky is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.