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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Its an error it looks like. They had a temp of 25F too at 13z right after the low of 24F at 12z.

They had some bad obs yest afternoon. Maybe they did something that cleared the max/mins and instead the late 5z 26F got recorded as the min? Someone should FYI Turtle in case BOX misses it like that one other time.
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No they don't.

The torch talk isn't new either. It was 1 of 2 scenarios laid out for over a month now.

Well I'm speaking for our area only which I think they do overall. You have been mentioning the torch for the holidays yes as a possibility. Most mets up here aren't leaning that way . Hopefully all of the east can cash in
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Well I'm speaking for our area only which I think they do overall. You have been mentioning the torch for the holidays yes as a possibility. Most mets up here aren't leaning that way . Hopefully all of the east can cash in

I'm hoping the gradient pattern can persist.

I'm pretty sure the weeklies break everything down and grow pretty warm weeks 3-4, based on general circulation.

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I was just looking at the winter of '70-'71 because we had brought up Dec '70 in the pattern analogs....what a ridiculous winter that was here. The total snow (80") was not epic...it was solidly above average. But the snow cover definitely was epic. It never torched that winter.

108 consecutive days with 1" or more on the ground from Dec 12th to March 29th. 72 consecutive days with 12" or more on the ground from Dec 17th to Feb 26th.

Now that is a winter. That beats 2000-2001 for sure. Though the depth never reached the epic '01 levels.

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I'm hoping the gradient pattern can persist.

I'm pretty sure the weeklies break everything down and grow pretty warm weeks 3-4, based on general circulation.

I've been thinking we'll know a lot more by early next week once the east based NAO begins to develop. Once a certain synoptic feature is in place, it's a bit easier for models to project what that block might do. Main question in my mind is how far west can the block propagate if at all? I think the NAO east is essentially a lock at this point, but the placement will make a huge difference in east coast gradient, anywhere from N/C New England down to our neck of the woods. If we can get the block to propagate wwd as GFS based guidance seems to be hammering post D 8, then everyone from PHL northward could get some fun late Dec.

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I've been thinking we'll know a lot more by early next week once the east based NAO begins to develop. Once a certain synoptic feature is in place, it's a bit easier for models to project what that block might do. Main question in my mind is how far west can the block propagate if at all? I think the NAO east is essentially a lock at this point, but the placement will make a huge difference in east coast gradient, anywhere from N/C New England down to our neck of the woods. If we can get the block to propagate wwd as GFS based guidance seems to be hammering post D 8, then everyone from PHL northward could get some fun late Dec.

I'd be shocked if the SNE region n of the pike got shafted...I'm confident.

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I've been thinking we'll know a lot more by early next week once the east based NAO begins to develop. Once a certain synoptic feature is in place, it's a bit easier for models to project what that block might do. Main question in my mind is how far west can the block propagate if at all? I think the NAO east is essentially a lock at this point, but the placement will make a huge difference in east coast gradient, anywhere from N/C New England down to our neck of the woods. If we can get the block to propagate wwd as GFS based guidance seems to be hammering post D 8, then everyone from PHL northward could get some fun late Dec.

Good post.

I'm still against the west-based solutions but admit my confidence is low (60/40). If the PV rotates from Greenland to Siberia, imagine the 3-D tornado in your head in the stratosphere. Now anomalous NW momentum will be transferred across the west-based regions while anomalous southerly momentum occurs over Europe. This seems to jive well with the ECMWF ensembles and how they keep the NAO more east based. You can picture how the heights might contort to what they show if you picture the vortex above it doing its thing.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!Northern%20Hemisphere!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012120700!!/

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Hey Eric, you gotta find that picture of pickles shirtless with an umbrella in the snow from last October. That should be used or later. I'm sure Diane has a 24x30 frame of that above her bed.

oh jeezus...i do not...i don't even have that pic anymore...the sole keeper is Eric

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I was just looking at the winter of '70-'71 because we had brought up Dec '70 in the pattern analogs....what a ridiculous winter that was here. The total snow (80") was not epic...it was solidly above average. But the snow cover definitely was epic. It never torched that winter.

108 consecutive days with 1" or more on the ground from Dec 12th to March 29th. 72 consecutive days with 12" or more on the ground from Dec 17th to Feb 26th.

Now that is a winter. That beats 2000-2001 for sure. Though the depth never reached the epic '01 levels.

That was a great year for ALB with a record 112.5".

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Well I'm speaking for our area only which I think they do overall. You have been mentioning the torch for the holidays yes as a possibility. Most mets up here aren't leaning that way . Hopefully all of the east can cash in

Well lets not confuse conversations from 2 weeks ago and think everything that was said still applies. Things will always change. The weeklies do become more unfavorable, but it's also more of a SWFE pattern in which the gradient will be nearby. Verbatim it wasn't that warm, but how do you know where the gradient is on a weekly smoothed out mean? We don't right now.

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Well lets not confuse conversations from 2 weeks ago and think everything that was said still applies. Things will always change. The weeklies do become more unfavorable, but it's also more of a SWFE pattern in which the gradient will be nearby. Verbatim it wasn't that warm, but how do you know where the gradient is on a weekly smoothed out mean? We don't right now.

For weeks 3&4 it has the gradient?

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I was just looking at the winter of '70-'71 because we had brought up Dec '70 in the pattern analogs....what a ridiculous winter that was here. The total snow (80") was not epic...it was solidly above average. But the snow cover definitely was epic. It never torched that winter.

108 consecutive days with 1" or more on the ground from Dec 12th to March 29th. 72 consecutive days with 12" or more on the ground from Dec 17th to Feb 26th.

Now that is a winter. That beats 2000-2001 for sure. Though the depth never reached the epic '01 levels.

Violently agree. Most folks on here don't care about snowpack. But to me that is a perfect winter with snow OTG at all times with refreshers. ✨Absolute heaven
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