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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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What is the difference between a east and west based block in regards to winter weather? Is one more prone to cutters vs a track south of new england? Just curious.

On a unrelated note. How does the tree look in Boston. Anyone seen it up close? For those that don't know, it was 95 years ago today that the largest man made non nuclear explosion leveled a good portion of Halifax and the reason Boston gets a tree from us every year.

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What is the difference between a east and west based block in regards to winter weather? Is one more prone to cutters vs a track south of new england? Just curious.

On a unrelated note. How does the tree look in Boston. Anyone seen it up close? For those that don't know, it was 95 years ago today that the largest man made non nuclear explosion leveled a good portion of Halifax and the reason Boston gets a tree from us every year.

Yeah, I was just watching a vid about the explosion and the connection between the 2 cities. Have you ever seen the melted cannon?

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Ski areas are happy. Sunday River dropped the ropes on 2 more trails during the day, 39 now. Unbelievable considering the lack of snow.

They invested in some new state of the art guns this year, They look like they could do well this weekend into the 1st of the week, Mtns and Northern ME look to stay mostly frozen into early next week

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But they still have a formidable -NAO right?

It's rather weak, but it looks reasonable unlike the crazy GEFS -NAO which we said is probably skepticle. The ensembles also tried to build up very weak ridging out west which would be a good thing to relax the Pacific jet. I didn't think ensembles were bad here, locally. Probably a good gradient pattern with storms close by. I don't see a reason to change my or anyone else's thoughts this morning of keeping things reasonable, but a better shot of threats as we head past next week.

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It's rather weak, but it looks reasonable unlike the crazy GEFS -NAO which we said is probably skepticle. The ensembles also tried to build up very weak ridging out west which would be a good thing to relax the Pacific jet. I didn't think ensembles were bad here, locally. Probably a good gradient pattern with storms close by. I don't see a reason to change my or anyone else's thoughts this morning of keeping things reasonable, but a better shot of threats as we head past next week.

I'd hit this...

12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

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Looks like some mean retrograding on the ECMWF which could ultimately lead to a torch if the NAO doesn't help. Is it gonna be a brown Christmas in NJ? :)

Your smiley face is disturbing. Do you get some kind of sick twisted pleasure out of dead grass and Santa's sleigh screeching and cutting through people's attics due to lack of snow?

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Each model run seems to be trending colder and colder as we get closer, A lot more frozen precip in the forecast up this way with ice,sleet and some snow for monday

Yeah, 18z GFS went right over BTV with ~0.25-0.35" frozen before floodiong the warm air in. That verbatim would probably hold in low level cold in the NEK and over in NH fairly well.

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Yeah, I was just watching a vid about the explosion and the connection between the 2 cities. Have you ever seen the melted cannon?

Yes I have. It was thrown over a mile and it weighs 1000lbs. An anchor was thrown two miles away in the opposite direction. That's about the only pieces of the ship that remained. The rest disintegrated into the blast. Boston was one of the first cities that sent aid. Kindness that transcended borders and has never been forgotten. From my city to yours, thank you.

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Lol sorry if i stirred up some weenie suicides with my previous post as the ensembles were coming in. They are less favorable over all (versus previous runs), but mainly in terms of sustained and severe cold air potential (which this potential pattern has always been very sketchy on and weve known this, due to the pacific)...but you dont need that in new england for it to snow at that time of year, and verbatim i think the pattern is still looking solid for NE going forward...mid-atl not so much...thats pretty much unchanged

The 11-15 day comment was meant more in a way to confirm the skepticism of the west based nao continually getting pushed back and staying past day 10...I wasnt implying the the old weenie fear of "ohhh the good pattern is always in the 11-15 day and will never arrive"...

If you want a positive trend out of this ensemble run, they were much more robust with the canadian/davis straight warming wrapping behind the vortex in the long range at 50 mb as it rotates towards asia

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Lol sorry if i stirred up some weenie suicides with my previous post as the ensembles were coming in. They are less favorable over all (versus previous runs), but mainly in terms of sustained and severe cold air potential (which this potential pattern has always been very sketchy on and weve known this, due to the pacific)...but you dont need that in new england for it to snow at that time of year, and verbatim i think the pattern is still looking solid for NE going forward...mid-atl not so much...thats pretty much unchanged

The 11-15 day comment was meant more in a way to confirm the skepticism of the west based nao continually getting pushed back and staying past day 10...I wasnt implying the the old weenie fear of "ohhh the good pattern is always in the 11-15 day and will never arrive"...

If you want a positive trend out of this ensemble run, they were much more robust with the canadian/davis straight warming wrapping behind the vortex in the long range at 50 mb as it rotates towards asia

LOL, I knew what you meant and agree. Who knows, the 00z run may even come back a bit in both AK and the NAO region.

Weenies tend to get excited when we say potential and wintry chances, but those words should be taken verbatim. Perhaps many are having visions of 2007 and 2008 dancing in their heads. This pattern has produced before, but of course..there are always exceptions that can occur. Likewise for crappy patterns somehow giving us 150% of snow climo. I do feel reasonable well about getting some chances to get SWFE or even perhaps a coastal low if we can get something ejecting out of the plains combined with a -NAO.

How can it go wrong? Well, the -NAO as planned completely fails, but I don't really see this falling apart 100%. It is probably a good idea to question the west based -NAO as you and many others have said. The Aleutian ridge fails to build and the pattern becomes -PNA dominiated and lows end up coming to close to us or cutting west. I think this also will be amped up enough to at least keep the cold source nearby.

But, I do feel like we can try to grab some opportunities here. QPF will be there with the gradient nearby and so will colder air.

BTW, it's good to have you posting your thoughts as well. A nice addition to this forum and thread. :thumbsup:

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Yes I have. It was thrown over a mile and it weighs 1000lbs. An anchor was thrown two miles away in the opposite direction. That's about the only pieces of the ship that remained. The rest disintegrated into the blast. Boston was one of the first cities that sent aid. Kindness that transcended borders and has never been forgotten. From my city to yours, thank you.

I would love to visit N.S. someday. I heard about the cannon on a podcast about a cruise to Halifax. I saw a pic of the anchor online. I guess may of the survivors were blinded by glass. Awful tragedy. Glad people from Boston stepped up.

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Your smiley face is disturbing. Do you get some kind of sick twisted pleasure out of dead grass and Santa's sleigh screeching and cutting through people's attics due to lack of snow?

hahaha...

Can we get some freakin' snow along the US-Canadian border first??!? Man does this new climate regime suck.

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