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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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So far we've had a few meltdowns

1) Jerry

2) Pickles

3) Cyclone furry

4) Giuseppe

Any I'm forgetting?

?

I just looked at the gfs when I got home looks horrible, I am guessing the ensembles are better? Euro is wet here, follow up wave looks wet here. I am guessing ensembles favor the interior, or was the long long range looking better today?

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Maybe Kevin can work hard for a weenie overrunning chance on the 15th.

That one is looking a bit sneaky. Most of the time we won't see our SWFEs more than 4-5 days out. Almost all of them look like cutters in the long range....then sometimes (but not always) get suppressed, and then come back north again.

At any rate, I'm expecting some sort of relaxation in the D8-10 time range (that was the time range I pegged as the next round of weenie suicides because of a bit of a torch signal) as the GOA ridge retrogrades....but doesn't mean we can't sneak an event in here.

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Does it all start with the icestorm you think?

Mmm, I wouldn't bandy "icestorm" like it's a sure thing -

Let me put it this way, having antecedent polar high N (and importantly, not receding E but staying put and eroding...) with quite the cold boundary layer wedged, I don't have a problem retarding any warm intrusion in the llvs for a long time - in fact, I would not be shocked if that current blended solution almost had to triple point underneath us. Thing is, all models have the leading polar high settling to eastern Ontario, N Maine. Even though the barographic play out suggests a veering wind across ~96 to 108 hours, below the 900mb level I could smell chimney smoke amid sparkling tree limbs with a light N drift.

It's too early to call that a storm - But a lot of our ice scenarios take on this look of an eastern Lakes cutter in the middle range, while antecedent highs slip into eastern Canada.

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