HM Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Sometimes I feel like you know too much to ever firmly fix yourself in once camp lol...such a wealth of knowledge inevitably leads to conflicting conclusions. That's an interesting theory because I thought I've been accused of being overly confident. So because of that, I have been trying to be more like Wes / objective this year while still giving you the way I'm leaning. LISTEN TO Steven Dimartino HE IS GOOD WEATHER PERSON http://www.nynjpawea...m/members-page/ He still going for big changes to the weather pattern and are starting already but will take little while but will get colder by the last part of dec . Next week storm will go into the western ny into canada area which make the blocking over North Atlantic area . Jan and Feb will good for cold and stormy weather with good snowy pattern coming. Watch the last part of dec . L O freakin L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Recent runs try to develop a weak wave running to our SE, after next weeks cutter. But, flow is too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The only Red Sox player I have ever hated besides Pedro is Youk. And now the Yanks signed him. Jesus huh? Yankees made a 1yr $12MM offer...not signed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah that last point certainly still holds today. I will say that both of the models/ensembles maintain in moving that strengthening vortex out of the north atlantic and towards eurasia in the 11-15 day, building heights behind it/linked up over canada to asia). So while it still hasnt done so by day 10, and id like to see that progress forward before getting confident, at least the west nao in the 11-15 day has strat support verbatim ..you pointed out how that wasnt the case in the days and weeks prior to the last ensemble predicted west nao (which would have been happening today, and clearly isnt).. If the vortex speeds into Siberia and the CW moves in behind it, then yes the west based NAO could happen then. Very true that this hasn't happened yet and I would too like to see it move closer. Suppose the vortex does swing to the other side day 11-15 and is quite displaced, would it then try to swing poleward just as quickly day 15-20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yeah that last point certainly still holds today. I will say that both of the models/ensembles maintain in moving that strengthening vortex out of the north atlantic and towards eurasia in the 11-15 day, building heights behind it/linked up over canada to asia). So while it still hasnt done so by day 10, and id like to see that progress forward before getting confident, at least the west nao in the 11-15 day has strat support verbatim ..you pointed out how that wasnt the case in the days and weeks prior to the last ensemble predicted west nao (which would have been happening today, and clearly isnt).. The euro ensembles are not as bullish, but also lift the vortex north as well. The one thing I've noticed is that this vortex is like one big massive blob you can't destroy. It's basically wobbling around and looks to wobble again towards Eurasia, but still well defined. It seems like it will need a heck of a lot of disturbances just Mike Tysoning the thing to death from all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 That's an interesting theory because I thought I've been accused of being overly confident. So because of that, I have been trying to be more like Wes / objective this year while still giving you the way I'm leaning. L O freakin L I'm glad you didn't take that the wrong way....I mean, its meteorology...100% chaos, so you can never plant your feet too firmly. I have never perceived you as overly confident....I mean, obviously if you're a pro, I would hope that you do exude some level of confidence, and I would hope that your readers would, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Ryan brought this up earlier, but some nice MJO support would also help to teleconnect to a -NAO. Having that fail (all though all related to the stratosphere), did help this recent fail of a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 If you told me I'd have a seasonal total of 2.5" of snow on 12/6, with gradient-potential flagged for the 2nd half of the month, prior to much larger potential in January...I'd sign up. Yup. so, no more messages from the wife with snowblower pics? Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Hey HM, one question I have. You mentioned to Adam about the 30mb temps being warm over the Tropical pacific, but I noticed 50mb temps are cold. Why would the 30mb level have a larger result to suppress convection down that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Recent runs try to develop a weak wave running to our SE, after next weeks cutter. But, flow is too progressive. You agree with Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 You agree with Tip? Well we have said for a few days it probably will start as some ice somewhere in the interior. I would think that as of now, starting out as ice is certainly on the table, but tough to use the word ice storm right now. I would like to see a weaker wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 We should set some over/unders for dec snowfall for the big 4. Bos 6 pvd 5 orh 8.5 bdl 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 We should set some over/unders for dec snowfall for the big 4. Bos 6 pvd 5 orh 8.5 bdl 6 Well you are def over 3:weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well you are def over 3 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It seems to me that the consensus from ensembles from all vendors suggests that the real wintry period begins with some stability in the 12/15-20 time frame but certainly not before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 when I first moved back to ma from fl 3yrs ago, I would often day dream (at work) about going into hibernation for the fall months bc I couldn't wait for winter to arrive.I would go out to my car on break w laptop and drive to part of shopping center w wifi and go to easternwx lol. Right now reminds me of a good time to take a ten day nap as well. Back then I would have been happy w "any" snow, its funny that now I'm not even satisfied w a normal climo winter , I need to move to a more consistently wintry place. When that happens, I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It seems to me that the consensus from ensembles from all vendors suggests that the real wintry period begins with some stability in the 12/15-20 time frame but certainly not before. Well how wintry is a question still IMHO. I personally want to see this continue through the weekend as modeled....all variables from NAO to MJO. I do think confidence is increased, but I can't use the term "real wintry period", quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The euro ensembles are not as bullish, but also lift the vortex north as well. The one thing I've noticed is that this vortex is like one big massive blob you can't destroy. It's basically wobbling around and looks to wobble again towards Eurasia, but still well defined. It seems like it will need a heck of a lot of disturbances just Mike Tysoning the thing to death from all around. Yeah i should have pointed that out...the 12z gfs suite is also not as bullish with that near day 10..I think these are signs that it will eventually happen, but maybe its a little rushed at the moment, which many have suggested already. If the vortex speeds into Siberia and the CW moves in behind it, then yes the west based NAO could happen then. Very true that this hasn't happened yet and I would too like to see it move closer. Suppose the vortex does swing to the other side day 11-15 and is quite displaced, would it then try to swing poleward just as quickly day 15-20? Why not? I still guess the over all AO trends upwards/relaxes in late dec, regradless of whether/not we get some west based nao/aleutian ridging in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The Canadian has a kind of bizarre snow and ice setup on Dec 13-14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The Canadian has a kind of bizarre snow and ice setup on Dec 13-14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 when I first moved back to ma from fl 3yrs ago, I would often day dream (at work) about going into hibernation for the fall months bc I couldn't wait for winter to arrive.I would go out to my car on break w laptop and drive to part of shopping center w wifi and go to easternwx lol. Right now reminds me of a good time to take a ten day nap as well. Back then I would have been happy w "any" snow, its funny that now I'm not even satisfied w a normal climo winter , I need to move to a more consistently wintry place. When that happens, I dunno. What line of work are you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 The Canadian has a kind of bizarre snow and ice setup on Dec 13-14th. bizarre sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It sort of came to mind..lol. Some similarities, but of course just for comedic relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Nice overrunning @hr 132 on the Euro, That looks to have some winter potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Anafrontal waves rarely work out...maybe this one will turn into something. Most guidance is too suppressed which is climo for anafront systems...they have trouble amplifying back into the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Anafrontal waves rarely work out...maybe this one will turn into something. Most guidance is too suppressed which is climo for anafront systems...they have trouble amplifying back into the cold air. Sort of a separate kind of wave/system though on the Euro. Begins to develop some low level warm advection and deepens a low as it moves along baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Euro is sometimes second wave happy, but even the GFS and ensembles hinted at something...albeit SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Will what do you make of Tips icestorm discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 the only way there's snow in new england from this event is if this can turn into an anafront type setup. there's just too much meridonal flow ahead of this system for a classic winter storm bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Will what do you make of Tips icestorm discussion? Even the euro does not really give you ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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