Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers

[HoarfrostHubb]

my personal opinion is that the 00z Euro is a worse horror story than any run I saw over last winter - interesting.

I swear I just heard the muffled sound of dozens of chairs tipping over

[HM]

This

Check your PMs.

Do we buy the Euro ensembles jumpstarting the MJO in the next week or so. First solid signal I've seen on the wheeler diagrams in a while for the Euro Ens.

This minor warming in the stratosphere could be enough to cool the equatorial temperatures down, pending any increase in solar activity. The +AAO / SH will not help however.

[CoastalWx]

The MJO phase 1 and 2 in December have a nice +PNA signal but little NAO signal per Alan's 500mb composites. That's not a bad thing though if we want to shift the storm track south.

Even if the NAO stays east based (I am still skeptical on the huge west based solutions)...we should have plenty of chances. If you recall the composites of our snowy Decembers, there were more east based -NAO patterns than west based and almost all of them had a -PNA with an Aleutian ridge.

Obviously that type of pattern you are playng with fire a little bit....but sometimes you have to take risks to get a big reward.

Yeah the word "sort" refers to east or west..weak or stout....just something to help us out is what I meant.

[HM]

Even if the NAO stays east based (I am still skeptical on the huge west based solutions)...we should have plenty of chances. If you recall the composites of our snowy Decembers, there were more east based -NAO patterns than west based and almost all of them had a -PNA with an Aleutian ridge.

Obviously that type of pattern you are playng with fire a little bit....but sometimes you have to take risks to get a big reward.

An east-based solution is certainly possible with the stratospheric forecasts since it would be merely a tropospheric reflection of wave features (i.e. classic La Niña pattern). Once the Arctic Air gets involved with this pattern, you guys will start cashing in while everyone down my way keeps a look out for the real deal in the North Atlantic.

[ctsnowstorm628]

It has a little front end frozen for us Sun night.

Yeah and then a half inch of RA. lol. But yeah there was a little bit.

Still a rough run though.

[HM]

On a happier / hyping note, haha, I'm becoming more and more convinced that mid-winter sees a sustained period of cold and snow and possibly something historic. My worry is that those early 50s analogs continue to show up and every time we get something favorable from "up above" the timing with the Tropics will be off. But there are some promising signs coming from the stratosphere as we move into January. Finally, the permanent Hadley Cell in the W PAC with the Siberian cold can be an exceptionally cold signal for us once wavelengths elongate to their maximum in a month or so. Unfortunately, climo/calendar doesn't always dictate wave length and obviously something shorter can lead to quite the opposite pattern.

[CoastalWx]

On a happier / hyping note, haha, I'm becoming more and more convinced that mid-winter sees a sustained period of cold and snow and possibly something historic. My worry is that those early 50s analogs continue to show up and every time we get something favorable from "up above" the timing with the Tropics will be off. But there are some promising signs coming from the stratosphere as we move into January. Finally, the permanent Hadley Cell in the W PAC with the Siberian cold can be an exceptionally cold signal for us once wavelengths elongate to their maximum in a month or so. Unfortunately, climo/calendar doesn't always dictate wave length and obviously something shorter can lead to quite the opposite pattern.

You liking that warm bulge at 50mb over Siberia right now?

[HM]

You liking that warm bulge at 50mb over Siberia right now?

Yes. I think this may qualify as a "Canadian Warming" in the post-analysis but I'm not sure. What I am sure about is that this first onslaught of waves was enough to displace this vortex big time and send a crap ton of ozone into the polar regions. Also, there is no indication of a solar max like period coming up and some of the forecasts are for a really big drop off in January. But that of course is not reliable.

I think if we get another round of waves, we may go from simply "displacing the vortex" to actually ripping it a new one. Stratospheric analogs say this could occur in January.

[ORH_wxman]

An east-based solution is certainly possible with the stratospheric forecasts since it would be merely a tropospheric reflection of wave features (i.e. classic La Niña pattern). Once the Arctic Air gets involved with this pattern, you guys will start cashing in while everyone down my way keeps a look out for the real deal in the North Atlantic.

Yeah I think that is the wait right now. There's certain a nice source of it in NW Canada/AK right now. Dropping some snow cover over the N plains and S canada will naturally help too as we bring the gradient further south.

No guarantees though. Even if we get a favorable pattern, we could get skunked. (just like how sometimes you can get a nice snow event in a garbage pattern)

The pattern would begin to become much more hostile for us if we get a big Icelandic low...but it appears that is not going to happen...I think there is enough there to get at least an east based block that sticks around for a week or two.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Someone posted stats on one of the main threads. We're at observed lows for US snowcover for this date going back a decade or so. Something like 7%.

[Typhoon Tip]

Falling for the warmup in the 12/14-15 period?

That will be the next round of weenie suicides as I mentioned earlier this morning. This is likely to happen as the GOA ridge retrogrades into a position further west and then starts building back up the Aleutian ridge poleward....all the meantime the NAO is building stronger...the period in between there is where we will torch for a brief couple days I think.

if you mean personally, not sure -

I was just speaking to the run its self. ... a west based PNA and an east based NAO combination could not be more elaborated as a torturous layout than that run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only Red Sox player I have ever hated besides Pedro is Youk. And now the Yanks signed him. Jesus

I knew he'd be there when Aroid went down.

Pedro is my all-time fav player.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z GFS coming in, interestingly, for the CONUS thickness pattern - seems (as mentioned the other day) that theme of having the lower tropospheric thermal fields being somewhat colder and out of phase wrt to the geopotential medium is repeated on this run through 96 hours ...at least. Not a clear cut warm run through D5 by any stretch - we'll see where this is going.

[HM]

Yeah I think that is the wait right now. There's certain a nice source of it in NW Canada/AK right now. Dropping some snow cover over the N plains and S canada will naturally help too as we bring the gradient further south.

No guarantees though. Even if we get a favorable pattern, we could get skunked. (just like how sometimes you can get a nice snow event in a garbage pattern)

The pattern would begin to become much more hostile for us if we get a big Icelandic low...but it appears that is not going to happen...I think there is enough there to get at least an east based block that sticks around for a week or two.

The good news is that we should form an Icelandic High by this time next week and move into a 4-wave tropospheric pattern.

[Typhoon Tip]

A classic positive PNA was never expected to develop. I was a little confused when this notion became popular in the last week or so. Ridging develops over the eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska, which is GOOD, preferred over a GOA low. But 1) it's a relatively flat ridge, with below normal heights still over Alaska, and 2) there is consequently a downstream trough over the west.

Much more of an RNA pattern ... which again, can still be good for New England as long as heights are suppressed over eastern Canada.

Dude, I made a thread showing a robust positive PNA form multiple sources -

[40/70 Benchmark]

On a happier / hyping note, haha, I'm becoming more and more convinced that mid-winter sees a sustained period of cold and snow and possibly something historic. My worry is that those early 50s analogs continue to show up and every time we get something favorable from "up above" the timing with the Tropics will be off. But there are some promising signs coming from the stratosphere as we move into January. Finally, the permanent Hadley Cell in the W PAC with the Siberian cold can be an exceptionally cold signal for us once wavelengths elongate to their maximum in a month or so. Unfortunately, climo/calendar doesn't always dictate wave length and obviously something shorter can lead to quite the opposite pattern.

Sometimes I feel like you know too much to ever firmly fix yourself in once camp lol...such a wealth of knowledge inevitably leads to conflicting conclusions.

[weathafella]

The only Red Sox player I have ever hated besides Pedro is Youk. And now the Yanks signed him. Jesus

I've never seen both you and Youk in the same room...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah I think that is the wait right now. There's certain a nice source of it in NW Canada/AK right now. Dropping some snow cover over the N plains and S canada will naturally help too as we bring the gradient further south.

No guarantees though. Even if we get a favorable pattern, we could get skunked. (just like how sometimes you can get a nice snow event in a garbage pattern)

The pattern would begin to become much more hostile for us if we get a big Icelandic low...but it appears that is not going to happen...I think there is enough there to get at least an east based block that sticks around for a week or two.

I'll tell you one thing...I am due for just the oppositie.

What can go wrong has gone wrong for the past few seasons.....with 2011 mixed in.

[Cold Miser]

Just get us to the 15th. 9 short days till winter

What is the significance of that date?

[Cold Miser]

I've never seen both you and Youk in the same room...

Youuuuuuuuuuk!

[radarman]

Be interesting to see if a 3rd wave can form on the tail of the thermo boundary and maybe clip us post-fropa for a T-2"

[Typhoon Tip]

While lost in an abysmal cult of commiseration ... the 12z, D4 GFS implies some sort of ice storm potential for the interior. Initially, the boundary layer is quite cold and dry in that solution; saturating that airmass leads to cold dense slab of viscous air, that is back built by at least some vestigial +PP over N Maine - I don't care what that 108 panels shows, you better knock back the time of warm intrusion considerably with that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is the significance of that date?

Roughly the date that should herald in a more favorable regime.

[Cold Miser]

Roughly the date that should herald in a more favorable regime.

Yeah, I just read back a few pages to see that.

Hope so.

It's way too early for suicide notes, and bridge jumping. I think most of us are fairly optimistic at this point.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you told me I'd have a seasonal total of 2.5" of snow on 12/6, with gradient-potential flagged for the 2nd half of the month, prior to much larger potential in January...I'd sign up.

[ChrisM]

If you told me I'd have a seasonal total of 2.5" of snow on 12/6, with gradient-potential flagged for the 2nd half of the month, prior to much larger potential in January...I'd sign up.

Exactly. Probability at this point for an above average winter seems better than 50%

[blizzard24]

LISTEN TO

Steven Dimartino HE IS GOOD WEATHER PERSON http://www.nynjpaweather.com/members-page/

He still going for big changes to the weather pattern and are starting already but will take little while but will get colder by the last part of dec . Next week storm will go into the western ny into canada area which make the blocking over North Atlantic area . Jan and Feb will good for cold and stormy weather with good snowy pattern coming. Watch the last part of dec .

[Damage In Tolland]

Ice storm from Tip?

[#NoPoles]

Yeah, I just read back a few pages to see that.

Hope so.

It's way too early for suicide notes, and bridge jumping. I think most of us are fairly optimistic at this point.

so, no more messages from the wife with snowblower pics?

[NJwinter23]

Sounds awfully familiar to what just happened. This "Canadian Warming" potential from the strengthening Aleutian High is a great sign for mid-winter and possibly developing as soon as the New Year (that may be a stretch but sometimes things like the MJO can speed up the tropospheric response) but the intensifying stratospheric vortex over the North Atlantic should be in the back of everyone's mind through Christmas.

Yeah that last point certainly still holds today. I will say that both of the models/ensembles maintain in moving that strengthening vortex out of the north atlantic and towards eurasia in the 11-15 day, building heights behind it/linked up over canada to asia). So while it still hasnt done so by day 10, and id like to see that progress forward before getting confident, at least the west nao in the 11-15 day has strat support verbatim ..you pointed out how that wasnt the case in the days and weeks prior to the last ensemble predicted west nao (which would have been happening today, and clearly isnt)..