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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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I just wanted to clarify I think Kev's posts have been great. They've provided some much needed comic relief and I'm in turn just joking back with him. There's nothing else to really talk about as we await the commencement of a pattern change I think we ALL agree is going to occur but is still many days away. Carry on, I need to go fertilize my tree.

Not much else to do right now other than joke about lesco, tractors, mowing the lawn, and reindeer snowflake sweaters.

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Keep pounding the weights and the food. When you're 55 and your underarm flab waves to your son on the school bus, it will all have been worth it

LOL, those days are over, although I mix it up now. When your lower body is replaced by metal and you look like the terminator, you'll remember this convo.

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LOL, those days are over, although I mix it up now. When your lower body is replaced by metal and you look like the terminator, you'll remember this convo.

if you have 2 kids instead of waving with your hands, just hold both arms in the air and shake them back and forth. The kids will be able to see the flabby underarms wave better than hands
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my personal opinion is that the 00z Euro is a worse horror story than any run I saw over last winter - interesting.

Falling for the warmup in the 12/14-15 period?

That will be the next round of weenie suicides as I mentioned earlier this morning. This is likely to happen as the GOA ridge retrogrades into a position further west and then starts building back up the Aleutian ridge poleward....all the meantime the NAO is building stronger...the period in between there is where we will torch for a brief couple days I think.

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Last nights euro ens show it getting progressively colder further east through the 11-15 day (nothing crazy due to the pacific) with an increasingly favorable pattern look. Normals to slight aboves SNE, to a few degrees above southern mid-atl/SE for a period average...with above normal precip...that looks mighty fine to me for new england, verbatim... My one issue is the whole mechanism of pushing the NAO further west looked like it got pushed back again and remains in the 11-15 day...even the promising cutter look at/within day 10 on yesterday's euro op, that Will was pointing out to set the wheels in motion, doesnt look as promising on the 00z run..This is more a concern for the further south folk, as east nao looks like a lock and should be sufficient for much of new england in my opinion past the 15th (I should stress, favorable to get those wintry chances as coastalwx pointed out)

Sounds awfully familiar to what just happened. This "Canadian Warming" potential from the strengthening Aleutian High is a great sign for mid-winter and possibly developing as soon as the New Year (that may be a stretch but sometimes things like the MJO can speed up the tropospheric response) but the intensifying stratospheric vortex over the North Atlantic should be in the back of everyone's mind through Christmas.

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Sounds awfully familiar to what just happened. This "Canadian Warming" potential from the strengthening Aleutian High is a great sign for mid-winter and possibly developing as soon as the New Year (that may be a stretch but sometimes things like the MJO can speed up the tropospheric response) but the intensifying stratospheric vortex over the North Atlantic should be in the back of everyone's mind through Christmas.

This

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Do we buy the Euro ensembles jumpstarting the MJO in the next week or so. First solid signal I've seen on the wheeler diagrams in a while for the Euro Ens.

That and the NAO are what I'm watching for. I think both are legit to a point....however the strength in both are sort of questionable. I feel pretty good of some sort of a -NAO.

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That and the NAO are what I'm watching for. I think both are legit to a point....however the strength in both are sort of questionable. I feel pretty good of some sort of a -NAO.

The MJO phase 1 and 2 in December have a nice +PNA signal but little NAO signal per Alan's 500mb composites. That's not a bad thing though if we want to shift the storm track south.

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That and the NAO are what I'm watching for. I think both are legit to a point....however the strength in both are sort of questionable. I feel pretty good of some sort of a -NAO.

Even if the NAO stays east based (I am still skeptical on the huge west based solutions)...we should have plenty of chances. If you recall the composites of our snowy Decembers, there were more east based -NAO patterns than west based and almost all of them had a -PNA with an Aleutian ridge.

Obviously that type of pattern you are playng with fire a little bit....but sometimes you have to take risks to get a big reward.

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