CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I assume that's a better pattern later in the season because of the longer wavelengths? Well I just mean that it's good to see instead of heights lowering there, and also it helps with cross polar flow into Canada. I'd rather have that ridge further east, but I'm not sure it's possible. You'd still battle a -PNA with an Aleutian ridge, which isn't always bad..but you roll the dice a bit more. If we can stay away from a raging +NAO...even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Read yeah not sure what grammar school he went to. But a new lesson is needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 What happened to the 60's on Saturday someone was forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well I just mean that it's good to see instead of heights lowering there, and also it helps with cross polar flow into Canada. I'd rather have that ridge further east, but I'm not sure it's possible. You'd still battle a -PNA with an Aleutian ridge, which isn't always bad..but you roll the dice a bit more. If we can stay away from a raging +NAO...even better. Yeah the degree and exact placement of that ridging can make a big difference downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 What happened to the 60's on Saturday someone was forecasting? That ain't happening..at least up here, but it will be above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 That ain't happening..at least up here, but it will be above normal. Well those that live in SNE knew when it was forecast by that outside of the area poster that it wasn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I know Will mentioned this yesterday, but another good sign is the rebuilding of the Aleutian ridge too. So, if we lose the -NAO later in the month.....the key is to have a strong ridge near the Aleutians. Modeled rebuilding...not happening yet. problem has been the things the long rangers thought were going to happen end up not happening. The majority of enthusiasts and amateurs are taking a wait and see approach for positive signs in the middle term. It's mainly the pros that are all lady gaga over the modeled pattern 10 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well those that live in SNE knew when it was forecast by that outside of the area poster that it wasn't happening. NAM says frisbees our thrown in the Delmarva, while ORH area is in the u30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Is there a shot that Dec 14-15 storm can end up going south of us? If NAO is neg by then I wonder if that could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Let;'s not kid ourselves..All of us would rather have snow all of December. this nonsense of punting half months or all of the month is ridiculous..Noone wants to punt anything No winter is going to be favorable wall-to-wall...even the best weren't. That being said, I'm fine with punting the first half of December....climo and ssts are still warm, and the holidays are still ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 yeah not sure what grammar school he went to. But a new lesson is needed It was a school in CT, But we had such a short school yr because of all the snow days we did not learn much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Modeled rebuilding...not happening yet. problem has been the things the long rangers thought were going to happen end up not happening. The majority of enthusiasts and amateurs are taking a wait and see approach for positive signs in the middle term. It's mainly the pros that are all lady gaga over the modeled pattern 10 days from now. Well a few weeks ago, the ridge was progged to rebuild and it did. Then it relaxed with a big -PNA and the result is now. I don't think any pro is gaga right now...I just mentioned that I want to see this continue for another day or so to make sure this holds tight. However, all guidance does try to introduce a better pattern for us which then would instill confidence on more wintry weather here. Again, I cannot stress this enough, by "wintry chances" I or anybody else for that matter are not saying 20+" en route. However, my confidence on a better pattern for us is increasing....lets see how the next couple of days go before pulling the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It was a school in CT, But we had such a short school yr because of all the snow days we did not learn much Did they teach this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Did they teach this? Yeah, Several...... :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well a few weeks ago, the ridge was progged to rebuild and it did. Then it relaxed with a big -PNA and the result is now. I don't think any pro is gaga right now...I just mentioned that I want to see this continue for another day or so to make sure this holds tight. However, all guidance does try to introduce a better pattern for us which then would instill confidence on more wintry weather here. Again, I cannot stress this enough, by "wintry chances" I or anybody else for that matter are not saying 20+" en route. However, my confidence on a better pattern for us is increasing....lets see how the next couple of days go before pulling the trigger. We are only one good Alaskan ridge away from forky and blizz dancing around the xmas tree to whams "last Christmas". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Joe, you're a good guy, but more than half of the time you are over-the-top, and out in left field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Last nights euro ens show it getting progressively colder further east through the 11-15 day (nothing crazy due to the pacific) with an increasingly favorable pattern look. Normals to slight aboves SNE, to a few degrees above southern mid-atl/SE for a period average...with above normal precip...that looks mighty fine to me for new england, verbatim... My one issue is the whole mechanism of pushing the NAO further west looked like it got pushed back again and remains in the 11-15 day...even the promising cutter look at/within day 10 on yesterday's euro op, that Will was pointing out to set the wheels in motion, doesnt look as promising on the 00z run..This is more a concern for the further south folk, as east nao looks like a lock and should be sufficient for much of new england in my opinion past the 15th (I should stress, favorable to get those wintry chances as coastalwx pointed out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 We are only one good Alaskan ridge away from forky and blizz dancing around the xmas tree to whams "last Christmas". Did you decorate the tractor this year? Should help add to the festiveness of the season while you're doing your winter mowings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Did you decorate the tractor this year? Should help add to the festiveness of the season while you're doing your winter mowings No but I used lesco in the tree water this year instead of the stuff they sell at the tree place. The pets are all dead and the kids are twitching but the tree looks pissa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 No but I used lesco in the tree water this year instead of the stuff they sell at the tree place. The pets are all dead and the kids are twitching but the tree looks pissa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Last nights euro ens show it getting progressively colder further east through the 11-15 day (nothing crazy due to the pacific) with an increasingly favorable pattern look. Normals to slight aboves SNE, to a few degrees above southern mid-atl/SE for a period average...with above normal precip...that looks mighty fine to me for new england, verbatim... My one issue is the whole mechanism of pushing the NAO further west looked like it got pushed back again and remains in the 11-15 day...even the promising cutter look at/within day 10 on yesterday's euro op, that Will was pointing out to set the wheels in motion, doesnt look as promising on the 00z run..This is more a concern for the further south folk, as east nao looks like a lock and should be sufficient for much of new england in my opinion past the 15th (I should stress, favorable to get those wintry chances as coastalwx pointed out) Hopefully slightly delayed and not denied. Everything still looks good pre Xmas, but with a weary eye to the subtle push back that you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 No but I used lesco in the tree water this year instead of the stuff they sell at the tree place. The pets are all dead and the kids are twitching but the tree looks pissa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I just wanted to clarify I think Kev's posts have been great. They've provided some much needed comic relief and I'm in turn just joking back with him. There's nothing else to really talk about as we await the commencement of a pattern change I think we ALL agree is going to occur but is still many days away. Carry on, I need to go fertilize my tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Here we go Kevin. AWT http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/health/exercise-bad-article-1.1212315 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Hopefully slightly delayed and not denied. Everything still looks good pre Xmas, but with a weary eye to the subtle push back that you mentioned. With a tired eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I just wanted to clarify I think Kev's posts have been great. They've provided some much needed comic relief and I'm in turn just joking back with him. There's nothing else to really talk about as we await the commencement of a pattern change I think we ALL agree is going to occur but is still many days away. Carry on, I need to go fertilize my tree. As many mets have stressed, the pattern is going through a major change over the next 3 days..i realize you are thinking about it in terms of a change to a snowy pattern, but just wanted to stress that fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 All kidding aside, I am happy to see more precip chances on the horizon. As the la nina pattern takes hold, I think a lot of folks will be happy heading towards the holidays. Some SWFE on the horizon and with the gradient potentially oozing south and east, and decent southeast ridge somebody will cash in. Where the boundary sets up will be the 1 million dollar question, and is there any chance to move the blocking further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 With a tired eye? Side effect of LESCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 With a tired eye? Betty Davis eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 With a tired eye? Lesco poisoning....wary. NJWinter.... sensible weather. I'm talking about a pattern change that has me not wearing tshirts in December and a change that lasts more than a few days. We know things are beginning to change, whether or not that change completes or we end up reverting back or only completing it partially remains to be seen. In the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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