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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Well then we agree to disagree - I look daily; in fact, I don't look at a model depiction until I assess the teleconnectors. Not sure what you have been seeing, but the NAO may have varied some days higher or lower, but the general them of a dip for a temporal sector has been highly well advertised. And my post "a single" image does not diminish the significance of it, if you mean 'pulling a singe result' to make a point - I wouldn't have made it, if I did not take note of multi-cycle signal.

Did itself has been well advertised...but how strong the dip is significant...and the GEFS made strong push today for a strong -NAO while it wasn't showing the same before.

The PNA also does not appear like it will go positive anytime soon.

The degree of ridging into mainland AK is a pretty significant factor going forward, I think

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Did itself has been well advertised...but how strong the dip is significant...and the GEFS made strong push today for a strong -NAO while it wasn't showing the same before.

The PNA also does not appear like it will go positive anytime soon.

The degree of ridging into mainland AK is a pretty significant factor going forward, I think

Having trouble parsing out your first statement there :) ... but, I understand. But that goes along with the computations varying some nightly/daily. The overall trend, I think, justifies the trend.

Whatever... The PNA, OMG! Yes, what a f job. There was a few-day rise that ...well, I'm not sure, but it may fail. Still wondering if it comes back - probably not for D11 (which is D5-6 by now..), but with the MJO seeming to rise from the ashes in Phase 1, I'd be a little more optimistic if we can get that assist. You know ... "recurve" means nothing; it's really a matter of physically processing TC latent heat injection and in what quantity - recurve maximizes, but who's to say a little can't help the MJO wave. (Bompha)

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Having trouble parsing out your first statement there :) ... but, I understand. But that goes along with the computations varying some nightly/daily. The overall trend, I think, justifies the trend.

Whatever... The PNA, OMG! Yes, what a f job. There was a few-day rise that ...well, I'm not sure, but it may fail. Still wondering if it comes back - probably not for D11 (which is D5-6 by now..), but with the MJO seeming to rise from the ashes in Phase 1, I'd be a little more optimistic if we can get that assist.

sorry...that was supposed to read "the dip itself was well advertised, but not the magnitude"

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sorry...that was supposed to read "the dip itself was well advertised, but not the magnitude"

Right - there's a secondary differential there, where the first has the dip, then the 2nd goes more or less - if the 2ndary doesn't f up the first, that's a robust signal for a decent or rise.

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A classic positive PNA was never expected to develop. I was a little confused when this notion became popular in the last week or so. Ridging develops over the eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska, which is GOOD, preferred over a GOA low. But 1) it's a relatively flat ridge, with below normal heights still over Alaska, and 2) there is consequently a downstream trough over the west.

Much more of an RNA pattern ... which again, can still be good for New England as long as heights are suppressed over eastern Canada.

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December snow> better than March snow..December has always been snowier and wintrier. We've lost a half month of a great winter month. Thankfully the 2nd half will make up for it

There isn't a huge difference in terms of climo. maybe a 1-3" avg difference region wide. You act like winter starts on 12/1 and history dictates that is simply not true.

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December snow> better than March snow..December has always been snowier and wintrier. We've lost a half month of a great winter month. Thankfully the 2nd half will make up for it

Truthfully, the timing is perfect. December snows lay down a snowpack. Two good winters since I moved to NH...80-09 the first snow was Dec 15 and the snowpack lived until well into March. 10-11 the first snow was boxing day, but of course the snow pack left quickly, by early March

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There isn't a huge difference in terms of climo. maybe a 1-3" avg difference region wide. You act like winter starts on 12/1 and history dictates that is simply not true.

Not at all. I just hate wasting half a month to get where we should be when the month starts. More often than not December is a great winter month

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Right about now the possibility of big snows go up exponentially each day. By mid December it's still moving up but nowhere like mid January.

Yeah it's better for us to wait. Earlier in the month is more favorable for interior, but I'd rather punt the first two weeks instead of them dancing in dendrites. No offense to them.

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Let;'s not kid ourselves..All of us would rather have snow all of December. this nonsense of punting half months or all of the month is ridiculous..Noone wants to punt anything

Well not wanting to doesn't mean much when climo basically says to. I understand it, and so should others.

Man, people are spoiled brats. The 80s and early 90s will be walking through that door soon enough.

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:weenie:

You wait. Weenies crying for their mamas and people will be telling stories to their kids about the '95-'96s, '04-'05s, '10-'11s etc. Just part of the cycle.

In the meantime, while I still want to see this trend continue because part of me is unsure of a couple of things.....confidence is growing on some wintry chances past mid month.

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