OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well then we agree to disagree - I look daily; in fact, I don't look at a model depiction until I assess the teleconnectors. Not sure what you have been seeing, but the NAO may have varied some days higher or lower, but the general them of a dip for a temporal sector has been highly well advertised. And my post "a single" image does not diminish the significance of it, if you mean 'pulling a singe result' to make a point - I wouldn't have made it, if I did not take note of multi-cycle signal. Did itself has been well advertised...but how strong the dip is significant...and the GEFS made strong push today for a strong -NAO while it wasn't showing the same before. The PNA also does not appear like it will go positive anytime soon. The degree of ridging into mainland AK is a pretty significant factor going forward, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Did itself has been well advertised...but how strong the dip is significant...and the GEFS made strong push today for a strong -NAO while it wasn't showing the same before. The PNA also does not appear like it will go positive anytime soon. The degree of ridging into mainland AK is a pretty significant factor going forward, I think Having trouble parsing out your first statement there ... but, I understand. But that goes along with the computations varying some nightly/daily. The overall trend, I think, justifies the trend. Whatever... The PNA, OMG! Yes, what a f job. There was a few-day rise that ...well, I'm not sure, but it may fail. Still wondering if it comes back - probably not for D11 (which is D5-6 by now..), but with the MJO seeming to rise from the ashes in Phase 1, I'd be a little more optimistic if we can get that assist. You know ... "recurve" means nothing; it's really a matter of physically processing TC latent heat injection and in what quantity - recurve maximizes, but who's to say a little can't help the MJO wave. (Bompha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Having trouble parsing out your first statement there ... but, I understand. But that goes along with the computations varying some nightly/daily. The overall trend, I think, justifies the trend. Whatever... The PNA, OMG! Yes, what a f job. There was a few-day rise that ...well, I'm not sure, but it may fail. Still wondering if it comes back - probably not for D11 (which is D5-6 by now..), but with the MJO seeming to rise from the ashes in Phase 1, I'd be a little more optimistic if we can get that assist. sorry...that was supposed to read "the dip itself was well advertised, but not the magnitude" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 sorry...that was supposed to read "the dip itself was well advertised, but not the magnitude" Right - there's a secondary differential there, where the first has the dip, then the 2nd goes more or less - if the 2ndary doesn't f up the first, that's a robust signal for a decent or rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 A classic positive PNA was never expected to develop. I was a little confused when this notion became popular in the last week or so. Ridging develops over the eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska, which is GOOD, preferred over a GOA low. But 1) it's a relatively flat ridge, with below normal heights still over Alaska, and 2) there is consequently a downstream trough over the west. Much more of an RNA pattern ... which again, can still be good for New England as long as heights are suppressed over eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Wow. Verbatim the euro is just bad. No frozen for anyone through 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Wow. Verbatim the euro is just bad. No frozen for anyone through 240. Good thing everyone punted through 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Wow. Verbatim the euro is just bad. No frozen for anyone through 240. Nzucker will not be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Nzucker will not be happy. How does the upslope look for Jay Peak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 How does the upslope look for Jay Peak? Reindeer sweaters rejoice! Seriously, I didn't see any setbacks last night. We might have to wait until after mid month, but I like what I see down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Wow. Verbatim the euro is just bad. No frozen for anyone through 240. It has a little front end frozen for us Sun night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 What a shame we had to waste half of December to get to the promised land..That's half a month of a short 3 month winter period. Frustrating, but once we're there..we're locked so we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 What a shame we had to waste half of December to get to the promised land..That's half a month of a short 3 month winter period. Frustrating, but once we're there..we're locked so we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Not much you can say. We will have lost at least a half month of winter in one of our better performing winter months. It is what it is..and we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Not much you can say. We will have lost at least a half month of winter in one of our better performing winter months. It is what it is..and we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I guess the last few years > climo for some people. They'll learn one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 December snow> better than March snow..December has always been snowier and wintrier. We've lost a half month of a great winter month. Thankfully the 2nd half will make up for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 December snow> better than March snow..December has always been snowier and wintrier. We've lost a half month of a great winter month. Thankfully the 2nd half will make up for it There isn't a huge difference in terms of climo. maybe a 1-3" avg difference region wide. You act like winter starts on 12/1 and history dictates that is simply not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 December snow> better than March snow..December has always been snowier and wintrier. We've lost a half month of a great winter month. Thankfully the 2nd half will make up for it Boston gets slightly more snow in march vs December. http://www.climate-zone.com/climate/united-states/massachusetts/boston/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 December snow> better than March snow..December has always been snowier and wintrier. We've lost a half month of a great winter month. Thankfully the 2nd half will make up for it Truthfully, the timing is perfect. December snows lay down a snowpack. Two good winters since I moved to NH...80-09 the first snow was Dec 15 and the snowpack lived until well into March. 10-11 the first snow was boxing day, but of course the snow pack left quickly, by early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 There isn't a huge difference in terms of climo. maybe a 1-3" avg difference region wide. You act like winter starts on 12/1 and history dictates that is simply not true. Not at all. I just hate wasting half a month to get where we should be when the month starts. More often than not December is a great winter month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Boston gets slightly more snow in march vs December. http://www.climate-z...husetts/boston/ I think that is based off the previous 30yr normal. The new one does have December as a snowier month by 1.2", but you can thank our recent snowier Decembers. That, too, will be regressed I'm sure down the road in upcoming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Kevin, move towards the coast. http://www.bestplaces.net/climate/city/connecticut/tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Right about now the possibility of big snows go up exponentially each day. By mid December it's still moving up but nowhere like mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Right about now the possibility of big snows go up exponentially each day. By mid December it's still moving up but nowhere like mid January. Yeah it's better for us to wait. Earlier in the month is more favorable for interior, but I'd rather punt the first two weeks instead of them dancing in dendrites. No offense to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Let;'s not kid ourselves..All of us would rather have snow all of December. this nonsense of punting half months or all of the month is ridiculous..Noone wants to punt anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Let;'s not kid ourselves..All of us would rather have snow all of December. this nonsense of punting half months or all of the month is ridiculous..Noone wants to punt anything Well not wanting to doesn't mean much when climo basically says to. I understand it, and so should others. Man, people are spoiled brats. The 80s and early 90s will be walking through that door soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well not wanting to doesn't mean much when climo basically says to. I understand it, and so should others. Man, people are spoiled brats. The 80s and early 90s will be walking through that door soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 You wait. Weenies crying for their mamas and people will be telling stories to their kids about the '95-'96s, '04-'05s, '10-'11s etc. Just part of the cycle. In the meantime, while I still want to see this trend continue because part of me is unsure of a couple of things.....confidence is growing on some wintry chances past mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Kevin only averages 39 inches of snow a year. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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