Dsnowx53 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yeah Doug I was feeling the same way, but I'm definitely not getting excited about it yet. Yeah, I'm still quite skeptical. It's nice to see, though, but I'm just not convinced that a few "wave breakers" are really going to do enough. I mean I guess I can see the gradual track shifting eastward thing, each of which helping the NAO, but that seems like a temporary fix. One thing we do have going is that we already have a nice east based block which seems to be established on the guidance. So it's not like we're just creating a ridge out of magic, like we would have had to do last year to get a snowy pattern. There are still lots of things I don't understand about the formation of the NAO and how to forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Maybe some snow the week before Christmas and then the winter fun begins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 what a retrogression on the gfs ensemble mean http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html very similar to the euro ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Solid shot of damn cold air early next week on Euro..after the messy mix Sunday night/Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Solid shot of damn cold air early next week on Euro..after the messy mix Sunday night/Monday ya late tue/wed look cold, probably a bit below normal. but transient , there's no HPressure anchored over quebec, this cold is transient for now over at least next week. euro op has nice high placement day 9/10 but ensembles don't if we can get rid of these pukish (n-s) oriented high pressure's over the ohio valley sliding east, that give us a transient shot of cold followed by SW flow, i'd be thrill'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Sleet outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Powderfreak's Grandmom was able to knit the sleeves back on today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 what a retrogression on the gfs ensemble mean http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html very similar to the euro ensemble mean Heights start building rapidly from E-W in Greenland during the 120-144hr time frame, as our early week Lakes Cutter bombs in eastern Canada. So it's not as if the -NAO is a post truncation fantasy anymore; I think it's a virtual lock we'll see some kind of east based -NAO at this point. Question is, do we continue to propagate that block westward as today's guidance seems to do? Analogs for this winter certainly had a fair share of west based blocking, though that doesn't necessarily mean it'll happen here. In order to get the pattern favorable for snow threats south of central New England, I think we'll probably need the west based block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Heights start building rapidly from E-W in Greenland during the 120-144hr time frame, as our early week Lakes Cutter bombs in eastern Canada. So it's not as if the -NAO is a post truncation fantasy anymore; I think it's a virtual lock we'll see some kind of east based -NAO at this point. Question is, do we continue to propagate that block westward as today's guidance seems to do? Analogs for this winter certainly had a fair share of west based blocking, though that doesn't necessarily mean it'll happen here. In order to get the pattern favorable for snow threats south of central New England, I think we'll probably need the west based block. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 6, 2012 Author Share Posted December 6, 2012 Powderfreak's Grandmom was able to knit the sleeves back on today Scot Haney is reading this and is delighted that the beautiful holiday sweater above was salvaged, he has worn many just like it on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Going to be a tough task getting snow near the coast this month with that east based nao and se ridge. Hope I am wrong but right now west is best in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 if you want winter, go to England. It has snowed off and on in London for the past week, and the coming week only looks to have highs in the upper 30's to Low 40's...you want winter to get here, get that PV and cold air back on our side of the globe...if the pattern doesn't change, well, we all remember what last winter was like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 if you want winter, go to England. It has snowed off and on in London for the past week, and the coming week only looks to have highs in the upper 30's to Low 40's...you want winter to get here, get that PV and cold air back on our side of the globe...if the pattern doesn't change, well, we all remember what last winter was like... Yep, globe is pretty close to normal lately temp wise and the conus continues to bake:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 If the block stays east based...its not a disaster either as long as we see the Aleutian ridge stay poleward enough...that is precisely what the pattern was in December 1970 (Boston's snowiest December on record) In fact, for Boston, only 1 top 7 snowy December since 1950 (when we have useful upper air data) did not have an Aleutian ridge....and that was December 1995. The others all had Aleutian ridges and a -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Yep, globe is pretty close to normal lately temp wise and the conus continues to bake:( same thing last winter...Europe/England got pummeled...their winter on steroids was just as abnormal as our lack of winter was... unnerving to see the beginnings of that all over again...i was hoping last winter was an anomaly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 the other big thing i remember from last winter is that the big pattern change was always 10-14 days away...sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 same thing last winter...Europe/England got pummeled...their winter on steroids was just as abnormal as our lack of winter was... unnerving to see the beginnings of that all over again...i was hoping last winter was an anomaly... England had their coldest December on record in 2010...the same winter we got hammered with snow. Just because they are getting winter weather doesn't mean we are screwed. We often share big winters with them....it just happened that last year was not one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 same thing last winter...Europe/England got pummeled...their winter on steroids was just as abnormal as our lack of winter was... unnerving to see the beginnings of that all over again...i was hoping last winter was an anomaly... I think this post is incorrect. http://www.guardian.co.uk/weather/london Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 the other big thing i remember from last winter is that the big pattern change was always 10-14 days away...sound familiar? It's not even remotely close to last winter. Silly post Diane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Guess Diane decided to have her meltdown today. Oddly in the dead zone after the best recent sets of ensembles in a few days. It's not like a solid pattern is definitely locked in but the 2nd half of Dec has looked good on the CFS, Euro weeklies and now starting to show up in the long range ensembles. It's still early December no need to be getting all nervous that it'll be just like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 If the block stays east based...its not a disaster either as long as we see the Aleutian ridge stay poleward enough...that is precisely what the pattern was in December 1970 (Boston's snowiest December on record) In fact, for Boston, only 1 top 7 snowy December since 1950 (when we have useful upper air data) did not have an Aleutian ridge....and that was December 1995. The others all had Aleutian ridges and a -PNA. What are your thoughts going forward past the 15th or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 It's not even remotely close to last winter. Silly post Diane. not talking about specific teleconnections or anything like that...but the talk of the big pattern change that will bring us winter so far has been continually 10-14 days away...that is the same talk that went on here last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 not talking about specific teleconnections or anything like that...but the talk of the big pattern change that will bring us winter so far has been continually 10-14 days away...that is the same talk that went on here last winter... December looked pretty terrible last year...I made the comparison to December 2001 in late November last year from the Euro weeklies and everyone freaked. It came true despite us hoping it wouldn't. We hoped a big change would happen in latter January/early February....it did, but just not for us. The other side of globe had the record cold/snow into northern Africa. That was due to the persistence of the AK/Bering vortex which help repel any blocking toward Asia. This year, the AK vortex was finally taken out in the autumn for the first time in essentially 17 months. It briefly tries to visit us again but gets wiped out pretty quickly...this new current regime since autumn wnats to keep rebuilding a poleward Aleutian ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Guess Diane decided to have her meltdown today. Oddly in the dead zone after the best recent sets of ensembles in a few days. It's not like a solid pattern is definitely locked in but the 2nd half of Dec has looked good on the CFS, Euro weeklies and now starting to show up in the long range ensembles. It's still early December no need to be getting all nervous that it'll be just like last year. actually, there was no emotion behind that post...i'm indifferent...i'm not a model watcher, never even bother with that since i'm not an educated meteorologist i would never pretend to even try to sound like one...i was just pointing out the similarities to last winter so far...which is the England is colder and snowier than normal, and people are talking about a pattern change that always seems to be 10-14 days away...nothing more, nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 not talking about specific teleconnections or anything like that...but the talk of the big pattern change that will bring us winter so far has been continually 10-14 days away...that is the same talk that went on here last winter... I do not believe the pattern is even remotely close to last winter, but we can lose or win many different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 not talking about specific teleconnections or anything like that...but the talk of the big pattern change that will bring us winter so far has been continually 10-14 days away...that is the same talk that went on here last winter... Not understanding this. Last winter was wall to wall torch from October on. This year we've had several snow events and subnormal temps in November. The first half of. December is probably above but nothing like last years ridiculous unmitigated torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 not talking about specific teleconnections or anything like that...but the talk of the big pattern change that will bring us winter so far has been continually 10-14 days away...that is the same talk that went on here last winter... Keep in mind the date...still early. Lots of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 If the block stays east based...its not a disaster either as long as we see the Aleutian ridge stay poleward enough...that is precisely what the pattern was in December 1970 (Boston's snowiest December on record) In fact, for Boston, only 1 top 7 snowy December since 1950 (when we have useful upper air data) did not have an Aleutian ridge....and that was December 1995. The others all had Aleutian ridges and a -PNA. Pretty amazing. I knew you guys could do well in such patterns, but would have never guessed this highlights your top snowy months..is this just a december thing or applied to the whole winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 December looked pretty terrible last year...I made the comparison to December 2001 in late November last year from the Euro weeklies and everyone freaked. It came true despite us hoping it wouldn't. We hoped a big change would happen in latter January/early February....it did, but just not for us. The other side of globe had the record cold/snow into northern Africa. That was due to the persistence of the AK/Bering vortex which help repel any blocking toward Asia. This year, the AK vortex was finally taken out in the autumn for the first time in essentially 17 months. It briefly tries to visit us again but gets wiped out pretty quickly...this new current regime since autumn wnats to keep rebuilding a poleward Aleutian ridge. is it unusual that it lasted so long? (probably a silly question, but to my untrained brain that seems unusual) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 What are your thoughts going forward past the 15th or so? Becoming more optimistic with time...I was already reasonably optimistic, but its nice to see the guidance trending toward a favorable pattern after a bit of waffling. I'm sure we will still see a few more shifts and plenty of weenie meltdowns...but I think the NAO possibility is becoming real. Its not in fantasy range anymore. What was nice about today's ensembles runs...there was agreement across all models...Canadian ensmebles, GEFS, Euro ensembles...at least WRT the NAO. GEFS and Canadian were faster to rebuild the cross polar flow in the N PAC...Euro does it, but slower and more methodical. (probably also more correct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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