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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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The euro ensembles became very nice through the 11-15 day with the west based nao developing. It gets progressively cooler through that window, though the extreme cold stays at bay in northern plains and western canada due to the pacific pattern. It's amazing how such a subtle kink in the 500 pattern near alaska leads to such drastic 2mT differences in the 11-15 day as seen between the gefs (very cold nationally) and euro ens (not so much) today.

Verbatim, it looks like a solid pattern for chances in new england by the ~15th-20th

i'm sure by this time tomorrow the models will have trended worse again, and they'll be hanging themselves from the snow gun hoses (or whatever sick twisted joke that is thrown around here)

They do look nice. That NAO block is a good thing for us here, even if the Pacific remains king. They also try to build the Aleutian ridge a bit more too.

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Stay the course my friend. I'm 40 now. Well seasoned vet. Ride the KURO like a wild stallion

My wife and I will be seeing Leonard Cohen at the Wang Center 12/15. Back when it was the old Boston Music Hall, My then wife and I went to see Linda Ronstadt in her heyday 12/9/75....big snow incoming that night but I was able to push it out of my mind for a few hours and enjoy the concert.. Will we have a repeat performance 37 years later? This time I'll have an iphone....lol.

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My wife and I will be seeing Leonard Cohen at the Wang Center 12/15. Back when it was the old Boston Music Hall, My then wife and I went to see Linda Ronstadt in her heyday 12/9/75....big snow incoming that night but I was able to push it out of my mind for a few hours and enjoy the concert.. Will we have a repeat performance 37 years later? This time I'll have an iphone....lol.

I thought they changed the name of the Wang Center to the Weenie Center!?

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My wife and I will be seeing Leonard Cohen at the Wang Center 12/15. Back when it was the old Boston Music Hall, My then wife and I went to see Linda Ronstadt in her heyday 12/9/75....big snow incoming that night but I was able to push it out of my mind for a few hours and enjoy the concert.. Will we have a repeat performance 37 years later? This time I'll have an iphone....lol.

you should try to see Ronstadt now

she's "twice" the performer she used to be

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The NAO blocking is actually starting to get closer now getting into D10 or even clsoer for the onset...I wonder if its going to happen now and not just stay a D10-15 pipedream. Both the Euro and GEFS seem to be using next week's cutter to accelerate the process.

As the Aleutian ridge tries to build poleward late in the period, that will only make it that much more favorable...hopefully we have something to build off of today.

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The euro ensembles became very nice through the 11-15 day with the west based nao developing. It gets progressively cooler through that window, though the extreme cold stays at bay in northern plains and western canada due to the pacific pattern. It's amazing how such a subtle kink in the 500 pattern near alaska leads to such drastic 2mT differences in the 11-15 day as seen between the gefs (very cold nationally) and euro ens (not so much) today.

Verbatim, it looks like a solid pattern for chances in new england by the ~15th-20th

i'm sure by this time tomorrow the models will have trended worse again, and they'll be hanging themselves from the snow gun hoses (or whatever sick twisted joke that is thrown around here)

The ensembles might even be good for areas a bit further south as well.

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A -NAO and RNA like being modeled on the euro would possibly bring near historic snows to the Midwest for someone. That is exactly the kind of pattern those guys need, like in Chicago e.g.

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The NAO blocking is actually starting to get closer now getting into D10 or even clsoer for the onset...I wonder if its going to happen now and not just stay a D10-15 pipedream. Both the Euro and GEFS seem to be using next week's cutter to accelerate the process.

As the Aleutian ridge tries to build poleward late in the period, that will only make it that much more favorable...hopefully we have something to build off of today.

thats good news, was hoping that would happen.

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Pattern change beginning Dec 10th....complete by Dec 25th.

:lol:

It maybe true this year but we say that every single year. Maybe it's just climo saying, "yes it will get more wintery as we get to the last week in December.". Because as usual, we don't care if the pattern actually changes or not, it's all graded on snowfall and how many winter weather events.

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First we need the cold air to be driven down but that type of pattern in the extended range would build up the CONUS snow cover big time. It would be much like the polar regions in the autumn...going from well below to well above in a very short amount of time.

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I should never deviate from KURO. Lesson learned.

Honestly really nothing has changed since the end of Nov when it was became clear the first week to 10 days was not going to be great. Day to day fluctuations but many have stated here things look better from the 10th or so on. seems to be true.

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1-2 weeks? we should get a lock in pattern.

Well patterns can break down and build up easily. Perhaps it does lock in, but realistically it could give a 1-2 week period of fun...if it were to happen like that.

I still want to see some more evidence going forward, but I feel like some sort of a -NAO is possible. We really need this because the Pacific is dominating and it's tough to get cold arctic air deeply entrenched in the east with such a -PNA.

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