CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That makes one of us. It's something I expect JI to post, which is pretty bad from a pro. I think he was trying to say that the current (like early Dec) pattern has a similarity to last year...but it's a horrible comparison...which he probably understands by now...I hope. I mean..you can't compare something in the process of changing and just say, hey...this is like last year! Hope it doesn't last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Also, the northern plains have been very cold in the 2000s and have gotten blasted with cold. I don't see how the last two years defines a trend. The CONUS as a whole has seen 0 temperature trend since the late 1990s. Its mostly people getting obsessed with with 1 year and trying to make an extreme trend out of it. Its actually slightly negative. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Trying to bring the climate change debate into the general wx side is pretty useless and just creates a lot of off topic debates. We know its been warmer than the past...of course if you compare to the 1960s and 1970s, everything looks pretty warm...even the '20s/'30s/'40s/50s. The United States temperature trend from 1910-1980 is exactly dead flat and is significantly negative from 1930-1980. Almost all of the 0.8F warming since 1930 occurred from 1980-1998. The temperature trends for our region of the country (Northeast as defined by NCDC) is even more muted. About a 0.4F rise since 1930. Its certainly relevant to tame temperatures when using analogs from the 1960s/1970s for sure. But we have certainly gotten some big arctic outbreaks post-2000 as well. January 2004 is the coldest January on record at BOS. It is also not unprecedented to go long periods with above average temperatures. BOS went something like 18 out of 22 months above average (1981-2010 normals) from late 1949 (which is the warmest year on record for the state of MA) through mid 1951 or something in that time frame. The standard deviation of our temperatures tends to overwhelm any climate signal. At least over the period of decades. A pattern favorable for cold is going to deliever cold and a pattern favorable for a torch is going to deliver a torch. Perhaps we hit 62F in the torch instead of 61F in 1975 and perhaps we hit -3F during the cold spell instead of -4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Good morning from Scottsdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The CONUS as a whole has seen 0 temperature trend since the late 1990s. Its mostly people getting obsessed with with 1 year and trying to make an extreme trend out of it. Its actually slightly negative. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Trying to bring the climate change debate into the general wx side is pretty useless and just creates a lot of off topic debates. We know its been warmer than the past...of course if you compare to the 1960s and 1970s, everything looks pretty warm...even the '20s/'30s/'40s/50s. The United States temperature trend from 1910-1980 is exactly dead flat and is significantly negative from 1930-1980. Almost all of the 0.8F warming since 1930 occurred from 1980-1998. The temperature trends for our region of the country (Northeast as defined by NCDC) is even more muted. About a 0.4F rise since 1930. Its certainly relevant to tame temperatures when using analogs from the 1960s/1970s for sure. But we have certainly gotten some big arctic outbreaks post-2000 as well. January 2004 is the coldest January on record at BOS. It is also not unprecedented to go long periods with above average temperatures. BOS went something like 18 out of 22 months above average (1981-2010 normals) from late 1949 (which is the warmest year on record for the state of MA) through mid 1951 or something in that time frame. The standard deviation of our temperatures tends to overwhelm any climate signal. At least over the period of decades. A pattern favorable for cold is going to deliever cold and a pattern favorable for a torch is going to deliver a torch. Perhaps we hit 62F in the torch instead of 61F in 1975 and perhaps we hit -3F during the cold spell instead of -4F. Will, I wonder if you looked at warm vs. cold records and duration of "waves" you might see a slightly different picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The CONUS as a whole has seen 0 temperature trend since the late 1990s. Its mostly people getting obsessed with with 1 year and trying to make an extreme trend out of it. Its actually slightly negative. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Trying to bring the climate change debate into the general wx side is pretty useless and just creates a lot of off topic debates. We know its been warmer than the past...of course if you compare to the 1960s and 1970s, everything looks pretty warm...even the '20s/'30s/'40s/50s. The United States temperature trend from 1910-1980 is exactly dead flat and is significantly negative from 1930-1980. Almost all of the 0.8F warming since 1930 occurred from 1980-1998. The temperature trends for our region of the country (Northeast as defined by NCDC) is even more muted. About a 0.4F rise since 1930. Its certainly relevant to tame temperatures when using analogs from the 1960s/1970s for sure. But we have certainly gotten some big arctic outbreaks post-2000 as well. January 2004 is the coldest January on record at BOS. It is also not unprecedented to go long periods with above average temperatures. BOS went something like 18 out of 22 months above average (1981-2010 normals) from late 1949 (which is the warmest year on record for the state of MA) through mid 1951 or something in that time frame. The standard deviation of our temperatures tends to overwhelm any climate signal. At least over the period of decades. A pattern favorable for cold is going to deliever cold and a pattern favorable for a torch is going to deliver a torch. Perhaps we hit 62F in the torch instead of 61F in 1975 and perhaps we hit -3F during the cold spell instead of -4F. Right exactly. Seeing an analog year like 2010 isn't going to make me say well this can't happen because the arctic ice was low this year....it's more about how the 500mb pattern looked. That's all we care about...whether this can produce snow or not. Just because it may be half a degree warmer (F) than the 1950-1980 baseline temp doesn't change the outcome for a favorable winter. But getting back to what he said, I just didn't quite agree how that can lead to less longevity and intensity of a cold spell to the point where it is noticeable to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Good morning from Scottsdale Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The 80s, 90s, and 2000s, all saw warm records beating cold records by a significant margine. In fact it was over 2:1 in the 2000s. To me, that is something tangible and noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Ice Ice baby Junior year Coastal Carolina University man I am getting old You went to coastal? That explains alot. That school is bananas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Will, I wonder if you looked at warm vs. cold records and duration of "waves" you might see a slightly different picture. Well it depends what sites you use. Record temps are not adjusted for UHI in the climate record...so I think you would see more of a gap. A place like Dulles airport is not going to get nearly as cold as 20 or 25 years ago because of major urban development around the area which was once rural. When they calculate USHCN temperature trends, they will adjust for stuff like this, but the actual record highs and lows are not changed for a station. You would probably see more of a gap looking at record temps anyway due to the nature of climate averages, but they will likely be more enhanced than otherwise due to UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Beautiful.yeah hard to get much done lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well it depends what sites you use. Record temps are not adjusted for UHI in the climate record...so I think you would see more of a gap. A place like Dulles airport is not going to get nearly as cold as 20 or 25 years ago because of major urban development around the area which was once rural. When they calculate USHCN temperature trends, they will adjust for stuff like this, but the actual record highs and lows are not changed for a station. You would probably see more of a gap looking at record temps anyway due to the nature of climate averages, but they will likely be more enhanced than otherwise due to UHI. right...but I don't think it's exactly fair to the climate argument to completely remove the UHI effect. It's an antropegenically induced climate change...and urban areas continue to expand so it will even be more noticeable in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well it depends what sites you use. Record temps are not adjusted for UHI in the climate record...so I think you would see more of a gap. A place like Dulles airport is not going to get nearly as cold as 20 or 25 years ago because of major urban development around the area which was once rural. When they calculate USHCN temperature trends, they will adjust for stuff like this, but the actual record highs and lows are not changed for a station. You would probably see more of a gap looking at record temps anyway due to the nature of climate averages, but they will likely be more enhanced than otherwise due to UHI. I just wish more people (even in the community) would understand things like this, but it's frustrating that it seemingly gets thrown out the window and replaced by images from the media of people throwing frisbees and walking dogs in Central Park. Somehow the near term wx over the East Coast must be justification that we are 100% at fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Don't forget hackey sack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This thread is horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 right...but I don't think it's exactly fair to the climate argument to completely remove the UHI effect. It's an antropegenically induced climate change...and urban areas continue to expand so it will even be more noticeable in the future. That's certainly a somewhat relevant side debate...but there's a reason they remove UHI from the temp trends...its because a vast majority of the country is not in an urban center so when calculating the temperature trend of the entire area, you have to eliminate biases in the data such that a small number of stations warming faster from UHI does not over-influence the other 95% of the area. If you live right near Dulles airport in the last 30 years, I'm sure you would notice the difference a lot more. Someone living in Ithaca, NY or Hagerstown, MD would not....and I agree it will become more noticeable in the future as long as urbanization keeps expanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The cold air for a winter like climate has to come from somewhere and it's usually from the North Pole area, Siberia or Artic Canada. From what I have read about global warming/climate change all of these areas are warming at an exponential rate. If summer ice cover at the pole is diminished and it takes longer for ice/snow to re-establish itself in the fall, it would make sense if sustained winter cold came later rather than sooner. I am not suggesting a correlation, but some fututre climate models suggest a future with shorter, but more intense winters as the globe warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well right now, it's certainly not an issue. Our source region is quite cold....we need a mechanism to bring it southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well right now, it's certainly not an issue. Our source region is quite cold....we need a mechanism to bring it southeast. Yeah -33 monthly departure in Fairbanks thus far, lol. After a -11 departure last month. We've got cold up there...we need to bleed it east. I found it interesting that the Euro ensembles are now trying to show a -NAO inside of 10 days...they are using our cutter system to try and build it...then it reinforces it further west-based later on. I'm still skeptical we get it liek that, but its a little more interesting now that its starting the process inside of 10 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 yeah hard to get much done lol I can imagine! Lol. Ex girlfriend's mom travelled to Scottsdale all the time with CVS-Caremark and she loved it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yeah -33 monthly departure in Fairbanks thus far, lol. After a -11 departure last month. We've got cold up there...we need to bleed it east. I found it interesting that the Euro ensembles are now trying to show a -NAO inside of 10 days...they are using our cutter system to try and build it...then it reinforces it further west-based later on. I'm still skeptical we get it liek that, but its a little more interesting now that its starting the process inside of 10 days now. It's a bit odd that Atigun Pass is at -25 while Barrow is at -3F, makes one wonder if there is still some opened water in the Arctic Ocean. Also overnight low temperatures for alot of Northern Canada are running about 6-8C aboe normal for this time of year from what I can see from Enviornment Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yeah -33 monthly departure in Fairbanks thus far, lol. After a -11 departure last month. We've got cold up there...we need to bleed it east. I found it interesting that the Euro ensembles are now trying to show a -NAO inside of 10 days...they are using our cutter system to try and build it...then it reinforces it further west-based later on. I'm still skeptical we get it liek that, but its a little more interesting now that its starting the process inside of 10 days now. Will, what do you think of those post-1979 stratospheric analogs I posted a while back? They, along with the pre79' stuff, suggest the PV continues to take hits that ultimately lead to a pretty significant warming in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Scooter is close to punting December, he, Will, Phil have outlined the details well and there was always a chance the gradient might not set up for sne. I think he is ready to punt south of the pike through Dec 20th. Just a hunch, still in the game last ten days or so but obviously nne is favored. lol. Same ole story. Look at the short to mid to long range - punt until next time, rinse and repeat while awaiting the "pattern change" that will eventually show up in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The climate change banter makes me wanna swallow my monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Will, what do you think of those post-1979 stratospheric analogs I posted a while back? They, along with the pre79' stuff, suggest the PV continues to take hits that ultimately lead to a pretty significant warming in January. I forget which years you used....I remember you posting them, but can't remember the years, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Who cares if Dec is punted...guess what, climo punts it here on the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Who cares if Dec is punted...guess what, climo punts it here on the cp. Yeah not unusual to have a dead ratter December on the CP...hell even here its not totally weird. That said, there is no reason to punt December right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yeah -33 monthly departure in Fairbanks thus far, lol. After a -11 departure last month. We've got cold up there...we need to bleed it east. I found it interesting that the Euro ensembles are now trying to show a -NAO inside of 10 days...they are using our cutter system to try and build it...then it reinforces it further west-based later on. I'm still skeptical we get it liek that, but its a little more interesting now that its starting the process inside of 10 days now. Yeah and then you look at the GEFS and you fall out of your seat. I'm also unsure how it works out, but you can see how it could teleconnect to something of a -NAO with the trough to the west..and hopefully a rebuilding of the Aleutian ridge. Perhaps it's just a temporary deal with the stratosphere still not cooperating, but it doesn't mean we can't get something of a transient ridge...or perhaps something that is east based, but good enough to help out here in SNE. I'd like to see this continue over the next few days. All the three major models have it, the Canadian agreeing with the Euro ensembles. Whether they are right with the intensity is up in the air I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I never said to punt December BTW...that is all LL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yeah not unusual to have a dead ratter December on the CP...hell even here its not totally weird. That said, there is no reason to punt December right now. Nah....just speaking hypothetically. I prob avg about 8-10" through the end of Dec.....only 5.5" off, and we've just started the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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