OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The argument that you can't get colder outbreaks because of the arctic doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Down here, there's a much better correlation to features like the Bering Sea Strait vortex or ridge and the affect it has with Canada and snowpack....which ultimately can cause an early end to winter. that's not what he said, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Right, I'm not saying it's false...but it's difficult to compare one year to a 30yr baseline that was pretty chilly up there on a decadal level. It'll be interesting to look back in ten years to see how well anogs performed in terms of duration and establishment of cold in this period of time. Warmth has been so severe lately on this continent my thought is we hit a tipping point. It'll take us hitting another tipping point to trigger the swing back. We are warming the soil at depths as some of the studies have shown in Alaska. My bet is the same is happening in the nearby waters. What effect that has time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 that's not what he said, though. I'm going by what Friv said. "I am not saying we can't have arctic out breaks and such. But there has been a major decline in the longevity and strength of the cold getting established, even during pretty ideal conditions." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It'll be interesting to look back in ten years to see how well anogs performed in terms of duration and establishment of cold in this period of time. Warmth has been so severe lately on this continent my thought is we hit a tipping point. It'll take us hitting another tipping point to trigger the swing back. We are warming the soil at depths as some of the studies have shown in Alaska. My bet is the same is happening in the nearby waters. What effect that has time will tell. This country has taken the world torch award though. None of us can help it, if the AK vortex has remained there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm going by what Friv said. "I am not saying we can't have arctic out breaks and such. But there has been a major decline in the longevity and strength of the cold getting established, even during pretty ideal conditions." He's saying that about the duration and strength of outbreaks not that they cannot occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 He's saying that about the duration and strength of outbreaks not that they cannot occur Poor wording on my part, but the point remains. If people are busting on temp forecasts, it is because of the persistent low anomalies to our north and the -PDO like pattern and Nina style pattern. Dec correlations to -PNA and -PDO probably are not far off from what we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Also, the northern plains have been very cold in the 2000s and have gotten blasted with cold. I don't see how the last two years defines a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Poor wording on my part, but the point remains. If people are busting on temp forecasts, it is because of the persistent low anomalies to our north and the -PDO like pattern and Nina style pattern. Dec correlations to -PNA and -PDO probably are not far off from what we are seeing. If the cold air isn't as cold...it probably can't "ooze" as effectively into the plains and the northeast than in previous decades when the arctic was colder...given the same synoptic pattern, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is blizzard1024 kidding? Time to delete that thread. It would be deleted if a non-red username made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This country has taken the world torch award though. None of us can help it, if the AK vortex has remained there. The thing I wonder about is,, what has happened globally and atmospherically to have that thing rot thee in the GOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Also, the northern plains have been very cold in the 2000s and have gotten blasted with cold. I don't see how the last two years defines a trend. The last graph posted did not address the 2010-2011, just the overall decadal warming. I agree you can't make assumptions on the arctic from just the last two years, but as a whole, it is warmer, and I think it matters to forecasting on some level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This country has taken the world torch award though. None of us can help it, if the AK vortex has remained there. Sarah Palin continues to screw the country. We are definitely the hemispheric anomaly. I think there are some expecting old school prolonged outbreaks the early part of this winter post change. I think we just see periods of oscillating temps with storm threats which side we fall on who knows. Hopefully it's a gradual step down into real winter as we head into January. I think the point on overall analogs though is semi-valid. The track record of even 2-4 week lead times the past 2 early winters has shown some decreasing skill in predicting the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is blizzard1024 kidding? Time to delete that thread. It would be deleted if a non-red username made it. someone had to take Analog96's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is blizzard1024 kidding? Time to delete that thread. It would be deleted if a non-red username made it. haha your response cracked me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 someone had to take Analog96's place. haha your response cracked me up If you claim you've read and understood the information everyone has presented that shows the clear differences between last winter and this winter but insist on continuing with the weenie-like posts, then that person should heed my advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The last graph posted did not address the 2010-2011, just the overall decadal warming. I agree you can't make assumptions on the arctic from just the last two years, but as a whole, it is warmer, and I think it matters to forecasting on some level. There is some speculation that the AO is affected by the lack of ice, which would be most prevalent in the summer and perhaps spill into late Autumn. Obviously, any icemelt rapidly builds up after October. You could almost argue that warming up there can help cause a cold push further south with ridging in the polar regions. Obviously, a lot of all this talk is speculation. There is no doubt it has been warm there, but we are also in the -AO/NAO decadal cycle which will naturally torch that region. How much is man helping? I really don't know..probably somewhat. On a side note, this country was very warm in the 30s and 40s. The dust bowl wasn't just a product of poor farming ways. -PDO and +AMO act to dry up the south. Expect more droughts down there. Luckily, the AMO is declining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The new pattern will dislodge the Arctic Air mid-month into southern Canada / northern US and setup a classic La Niña pattern with New England threats. I'm not buying the west-based blocking solutions showing up on the GEFS that keep coming and going. Is this going to be Winter 2011-2012 all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 There is some speculation that the AO is affected by the lack of ice, which would be most prevalent in the summer and perhaps spill into late Autumn. Obviously, any icemelt rapidly builds up after October. You could almost argue that warming up there can help cause a cold push further south with ridging in the polar regions. Obviously, a lot of all this talk is speculation. There is no doubt it has been warm there, but we are also in the -AO/NAO decadal cycle which will naturally torch that region. How much is man helping? I really don't know..probably somewhat. On a side note, this country was very warm in the 30s and 40s. The dust bowl wasn't just a product of poor farming ways. -PDO and +AMO act to dry up the south. Expect more droughts down there. Luckily, the AMO is declining. Great points. All I was saying is to assume a result based on an analog that came from a very different overall climate period.... we'll have to see how valid that is as time goes forward. What we haven't figured out yet is the tipping point to these events like the 30s droughts etc. I'm not sure I believe it's all chaos, at some point something changes enough to trigger a change that cascades. This is clearly not last winter but that doesn't mean it cannot suck in different ways for a lot of people on the east coast. Time will tell I think the tipping point for this winter comes around 12/15 to 12/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Is blizzard1024 kidding? Time to delete that thread. It would be deleted if a non-red username made it. Why do you think this year will be different? Look at the MEX data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 If you claim you've read and understood the information everyone has presented that shows the clear differences between last winter and this winter but insist on continuing with the weenie-like posts, then that person should heed my advice. But there is a ripping Pacific jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 If you claim you've read and understood the information everyone has presented that shows the clear differences between last winter and this winter but insist on continuing with the weenie-like posts, then that person should heed my advice. But there is a ripping Pacific jet? And an east based NAO? I think you're just wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 But there is a ripping Pacific jet? That never happens in good winters. Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 That never happens in good winters. Never. It looks just like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Crazy, hit our high of 56.5 at 1:42 this morning... now 50.3 and mostly clear skies. This is a torch I can enjoy. Yesterday was one of the worst days I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 If you claim you've read and understood the information everyone has presented that shows the clear differences between last winter and this winter but insist on continuing with the weenie-like posts, then that person should heed my advice. HM you will injoy the new web sight it has alot of good info about the stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It looks just like last year. I think I understood what he was trying to do, but it's a weenie post..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I think I understood what he was trying to do, but it's a weenie post..lol. That makes one of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 can we bring back the weenie metorologist tag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I think I understood what he was trying to do, but it's a weenie post..lol. There's a big difference from a b**ch post here or there in a banter thread and starting your own b**ch thread as met on the main page. That's just sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 HM you will injoy the new web sight it has alot of good info about the stratosphere. Eye think u have sum things not spelt rite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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