Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This muted torch has done its dirty work. BOS=3.2 BDL+2.5 PVD+4.4 ORH+5.4 mute this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Are we now throwing out the gfs since it went west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 lol at the Joe Bustardi thread......classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Are we now throwing out the gfs since it went west? Just follow the great Rev, Ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 How did the extended Euro ensembles look last night? They are looking better...near the end of their run they are starting to build heights up again in the Bering/Kamchatka region. That would re-establish cross polar flow. We may have a chance in the time frame of the 15th-16th as well on the ensembles....long ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Just follow the great Rev, Ice! Ice Ice baby Junior year Coastal Carolina University man I am getting old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Just follow the great Rev, Ice! Classic ice setup. Massive cold high to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This muted torch has done its dirty work. BOS=3.2 BDL+2.5 PVD+4.4 ORH+5.4 mute this And after tomorrow it won't get much better for a little while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 They are looking better...near the end of their run they are starting to build heights up again in the Bering/Kamchatka region. That would re-establish cross polar flow. We may have a chance in the time frame of the 15th-16th as well on the ensembles....long ways out though. Thanks. Until we see a legit -NAO established, I think I'm going to be in the warmer than normal, less than normal snow chances camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 And after tomorrow it won't get much better for a little while... We had our one below normal month out of every 1-2 years. Now back to our regularly scheduled baking. Great point on the main page about how much baseline conditions have changed over the last 50 years and the effect that has on the use of analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 We had our one below normal month out of every 1-2 years. Now back to our regularly scheduled baking. Great point on the main page about how much baseline conditions have changed over the last 50 years and the effect that has on the use of analogs. I think it's more relevant for using analogs before 1980. Friv is a bit of nut, and everything pre-2000 is overstating the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Think we may have lost Scooter to baby Scooty. He disappeared after early post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I think it's more relevant for using analogs before 1980. Friv is a bit of nut, and everything pre-2000 is overstating the difference. Comparisons are still useful of course but expecting the same outcomes may not be logical. It's a valid point about the difficulty in ideal/near ideal patterns to deliver sustained cold. Doesn't mean it still doesn't happen it wasn't long ago they were using ice breakers in the canal. I think we see a change complete prior to the 20th....just hoping we don't get Charlie browned on that in the next few days. Right now still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Think we may have lost Scooter to baby Scooty. He disappeared after early post I think he was heading for the Tobin after seeing the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Think we may have lost Scooter to baby Scooty. He disappeared after early post Nope, just nothing to talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Nope, just nothing to talk about. I figured you were analyzing the ice storm coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The new pattern will dislodge the Arctic Air mid-month into southern Canada / northern US and setup a classic La Niña pattern with New England threats. I'm not buying the west-based blocking solutions showing up on the GEFS that keep coming and going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Nope, just nothing to talk about. Not a bad idea to get away from the board for a few days until the icy threat inland early next week. Until then pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I think it's more relevant for using analogs before 1980. Friv is a bit of nut, and everything pre-2000 is overstating the difference. I don't really buy his post at all, and I'm nowhere near a "denier" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Departures for Fairbanks AK are -33F. Yes, -33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Comparisons are still useful of course but expecting the same outcomes may not be logical. It's a valid point about the difficulty in ideal/near ideal patterns to deliver sustained cold. Doesn't mean it still doesn't happen it wasn't long ago they were using ice breakers in the canal. I think we see a change complete prior to the 20th....just hoping we don't get Charlie browned on that in the next few days. Right now still looks good It's not a bad point or anything, but the inherent error in long range forecasting and analog use is probably a magnitude larger than the bias in the Arctic warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Scooter is close to punting December, he, Will, Phil have outlined the details well and there was always a chance the gradient might not set up for sne. I think he is ready to punt south of the pike through Dec 20th. Just a hunch, still in the game last ten days or so but obviously nne is favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Not a bad idea to get away from the board for a few days until the icy threat inland early next week. Until then pretty meh We're in the doldrums for a while and you can only regurgitate everything so much day after day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Solar flux is low with occasional small flares and solar wind peaks with a coronal hole. Pretty dead. Latest forecast: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/27DO.txt "Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 December - 29 December 2012 Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of isolated M-class flares through the entire forecast period (03-29 December). No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels except during 14-21 December following the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream on 11 December and sustained by another stream which is expected to become geoeffective on 14 December. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels for the majority of the forecast period. Unsettled to potentially active levels are expected on 11-12, 14, and 29 December associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 We're in the doldrums for a while and you can only regurgitate everything so much day after day. yep. at least this time of year there is lots of other stuff to occupy the mind during meh weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I don't really buy his post at all, and I'm nowhere near a "denier" Don's been making a similar (but not so extreme) argument in his forecasts for ahwile now. I think it's legit on some level, because it easier to be warmer than normal nowadays than colder than normal. If you were forecasting for the Arctic itself, you can probably forecast warmer than normal just about every year and be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 yep. at least this time of year there is lots of other stuff to occupy the mind during meh weather. Thankfully we have the NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Don's been making a similar (but not so extreme) argument in his forecasts for ahwile now. I think it's legit on some level, because it easier to be warmer than normal nowadays than colder than normal. If you were forecasting for the Arctic itself, you can probably forecast warmer than normal just about every year and be correct. Right, I'm not saying it's false...but it's difficult to compare one year to a 30yr baseline that was pretty chilly up there on a decadal level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The argument that you can't get colder outbreaks because of the arctic doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Down here, there's a much better correlation to features like the Bering Sea Strait vortex or ridge and the affect it has with Canada and snowpack....which ultimately can cause an early end to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Ski resorts must be pulling their hair out with this torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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