powderfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Well it will only take a 00z suite of ensemble runs looking more promising to change the tune. Kevin had a famous meltdown right around the ice storm in 2008 because model guidance looked like a torch...even though we were kind of riding on a knife's edge. The 12/19/08 event was modeled to be a huge cutter....he lost it. I was reading the threads leading up to Boxing Day 2010 storm...and when that disappeared from the models a few days before Xmas...wow there are some epic meltdowns in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Or an 18z run of the GFS.....lol That run is screaming big wintry mess for the interior...at least during the first half of the storm. It pushes the boundary much further south out ahead of the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I don't have to tell you how on the edge we are for something avg to above avg for snowfall vs below. Of course there is the chance we happen to be 100 miles too far south, but there is no way to figure that out. We've had much better patterns perform worse and vice-versa. I think folks are jumping the gun a bit early with the cancelling December, If we have 10" of snow here in BOS and it is +1.5...is that bad? I guess it is for those that have been use to 30" Decembers. I still don't think the month is that bad here. If I have 3" of snow to show for it and +5 temps...feel free to bump this post. You're right. But I'm PURELY looking at H5 and the risk of dead ratatosis is high. But I guess you have to risk warmth if you're going to get a storm in this pattern and cold highs north of us are never well modeled and particularly not indicated on the height fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's not like me to melt down but the prospects are not great. It will do what it does. The 12Z ensemble guidance is not promising. And the 51 member Euro ensemble team doesn't seem to be feeling it but maybe it's better beyond d10... I'm fine with waiting till late December...that is more normal. Just stating what the data is saying today. Nothing more. bingo bango...I guess ur suppose to attach, but well have our chances, or well be possible to score in gradient pattern, or its deem'd a weenie meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I don't have to tell you how on the edge we are for something avg to above avg for snowfall vs below. Of course there is the chance we happen to be 100 miles too far south, but there is no way to figure that out. We've had much better patterns perform worse and vice-versa. I think folks are jumping the gun a bit early with the cancelling December, If we have 10" of snow here in BOS and it is +1.5...is that bad? I guess it is for those that have been use to 30" Decembers. I still don't think the month is that bad here. If I have 3" of snow to show for it and +5 temps...feel free to bump this post. Yeah its impossible to say how this turns out...we don't even know how the 12/11 system is going to shape up. Nevermind any shortwaves that decide to make a play in the few days afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 You're right. But I'm PURELY looking at H5 and the risk of dead ratatosis is high. But I guess you have to risk warmth if you're going to get a storm in this pattern and cold highs north of us are never well modeled and particularly not indicated on the height fields. I didn't to direct that at you or anyone specifically...it may end up worse than we hoped...but if you look at other snowy December SE ridge H5 setups, they also had above normal height anomalies there...and even down to 850mb. Remember in December 2007 how close the gradient was then? That might be us again..or perhaps it's more Dendrite...just too early to tell. Trust me, I also have the same concerns you do. I know it's not far from something crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 That run is screaming big wintry mess for the interior...at least during the first half of the storm. It pushes the boundary much further south out ahead of the main storm. lol....That's why i mentioned it, I was comparing it to the 12z run, Which was vastly different, It really went to town with the 2nd s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 December 2007 had a continued Aleutian ridge that was ENSO driven. If we really lose the Aleatian ridge, it won't be the same outcome, unless we can grab a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 According to the models the warm air bubble gets smaller and remains over the eastern us but the Maritimes gets near normal temperatures. Am I correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Def torching here. Up to 51F now... pea soup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Def torching here. Up to 51F now... pea soup 52.3 and very muggy here...i feel like i need to take a shower again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think HM makes a good point about that bubble of warmer air (50mb to 30mb) at least migrating towards the Aleutian area to help reinforce the ridge there in a few weeks. I don't think that's a ton of voodoo right there to assume that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 53.4 at ktoll high for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think HM makes a good point about that bubble of warmer air (50mb to 30mb) at least migrating towards the Aleutian area to help reinforce the ridge there in a few weeks. I don't think that's a ton of voodoo right there to assume that. And that area is the ONE difference that is glaring vs last year. And a broader ridge in AK can bring 1993-94 to our doors. You may recall the positive NAO but extremely cold and snowy winter that year. I think PNA cooperated and the PDO was positive so something of that magnitude is unlkely. But a whiff of that winter would be good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 53.4 at ktoll high for the day Kevin says it doesn't count because it's night time and he'll be in bed in 2 hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Ll ur usually good w temp forecasts, . How's tommorrow looking for highs in sne in ur opinion, I.e big 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 frigid air just dominating the pattern today. saying it's cold doesn't actually make it cold ya know, right? lol these are 4PM temps...in Dec. this would be chilly if it were late May. Good to see NH is holding it's own. CT Blizz has got to get out of his area if he wants cold weather...come north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 And that area is the ONE difference that is glaring vs last year. And a broader ridge in AK can bring 1993-94 to our doors. You may recall the positive NAO but extremely cold and snowy winter that year. I think PNA cooperated and the PDO was positive so something of that magnitude is unlkely. But a whiff of that winter would be good enough. That's why we are saying at least let things play out a little. It is very close to something not favorable for us, this is true..no hiding that at all. It's also close to the patterns that have done well. LOL, so what do you do? My gut says December isn't 2007 or 2008 like...but I've been wrong before, and I also don't see a reason to cancel it on a 2006 or 2011 level. Something tells me the 20-30th could be interesting...but that is nothing more than educated speculation, and I'm not pushing anything back. Winter is 4 months in general...it's difficult to always assume it means Dec-Feb which I think is partly on the minds of some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 That's why we are saying at least let things play out a little. It is very close to something not favorable for us, this is true..no hiding that at all. It's also close to the patterns that have done well. LOL, so what do you do? My gut says December isn't 2007 or 2008 like...but I've been wrong before, and I also don't see a reason to cancel it on a 2006 or 2011 level. Something tells me the 20-30th could be interesting...but that is nothing more than educated speculation, and I'm not pushing anything back. Winter is 4 months in general...it's difficult to always assume it means Dec-Feb which I think is partly on the minds of some. 20th on would be my guess as well. Too many things to work out over the next 2 weeks but we could get lucky. Baby here before the first major snow. Perfect! The year my daughter was born (1999), I would take her our at night in mid December and it was like summer. Hopefully that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The Adam storm went kaput? Interesting model trends, do like Messengers point about post Rockies being the point where models pick up best on features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Great to see OKX radar back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Kevin says it doesn't count because it's night time and he'll be in bed in 2 hours anyway. His nightime low maybe higher than my high temp was today, elevations are going to torch tonight for sure. Early highs in the morning west.......damn warm out east especially in downslope dandy locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 and then what a shock to the system tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 20th on would be my guess as well. Too many things to work out over the next 2 weeks but we could get lucky. Baby here before the first major snow. Perfect! The year my daughter was born (1999), I would take her our at night in mid December and it was like summer. Hopefully that won't happen. You know one of my favorite things I got him, was a mini snow suit. Mother nature surely can't let me down now! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The Adam storm went kaput? Interesting model trends, do like Messengers point about post Rockies being the point where models pick up best on features. May not be the rockies it may be the point in time t minus event. The guys in Iceland may be saying "when the features get over the east coast models seem to do better" etc etc. In any case this weather whacks it. It's not seasonable nor is it nice enough to frolic. I have winter blue balls right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Kevin says it doesn't count because it's night time and he'll be in bed in 2 hours anyway. I think the pont everyone has missed..is again..yes it was above normal..but nowhere near what was being discussed for the past 3 days..with top down convertible wx,,wall to wall sunshine and 60's. One or two towns nuzzled 60 yesterday..Maybe BOS does it tomorrow..This will not be remembered as a warm, massive torch by any means..which again is what was advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The icy scenario deepens next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I think the pont everyone has missed..is again..yes it was above normal..but nowhere near what was being discussed for the past 3 days..with top down convertible wx,,wall to wall sunshine and 60's. One or two towns nuzzled 60 yesterday..Maybe BOS does it tomorrow..This will not be remembered as a warm, massive torch by any means..which again is what was advertised I think there are widespread 60s tomorrow. You may be spared but I doubt I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 you know it's bad when your best hope is freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Man the fog before was impressive. Probably couldn't see more than 100 feet ahead. Treetops were gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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