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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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January 2005 featured a textbook Archambault signal in fact she used it as an example. NAO tanks as PNA comes up. During the torch period we DID get a nice system in the first week as reflected by the dailies Will posted.

Yeah we were lucky on that one..that was definitely in the category of "well timed SWFE". South of the pike got an ice storm out of that.

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It also doesn't start for another month there....he shouldn't be canceling anything before New Years, lol.

we have had plenty of December snows in the past 10 or so years including a HECS in 2009. Not sure what you are talking about lol

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we have had plenty of December snows in the past 10 or so years including a HECS in 2009. Not sure what you are talking about lol

Like 85% of your seasonal average comes after December. I would think you would know your climo by now after being on the boards 10+ years. :weenie:

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he canceled 2010-2011 for New England in the first week of Dec.

i know people like to use 2010 as an example of a winter with a late start, but there was blocking all through nov/dec... it was just a matter of time before a big storm was going to happen

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i know people like to use 2010 as an example of a winter with a late start, but there was blocking all through nov/dec... it was just a matter of time before a big storm was going to happen

'04 and '93 are much better examples of years that had little blocking in November/December but went nuts later on.

Nov 2012 had impressive blocking up near AK/Bering Straight...pretty neutral NAO though.

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I'll take December 2004, but wouldn't want January of 2005. Deep South Texas got an amazing snowstorm by our standards on Christmas Eve into Christimas Day 2004 (e.g., areas northwest of Corpus Christi got on average 6-8" of snow, and I was there). However, January was lackluster for my area.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=south%20texas%20snowstorm%202004&source=web&cd=14&cad=rja&ved=0CHYQFjAN&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.srh.noaa.gov%2Fssd%2Ftechmemo%2Fsr228.pdf&ei=6GW-UIDJC6Oa2AXfqoCQAg&usg=AFQjCNFGBAaGdxpdTF9APb6SMR16I4kz_A

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Overall one day for the freaks that enjoy warm wx in winter. Sunday and today cancelled. Except of course SW Ct where the folks down there shucked oysters and corn cobs and had the best day of their lives

frigid air just dominating the pattern today. saying it's cold doesn't actually make it cold ya know, right? lol

these are 4PM temps...in Dec. this would be chilly if it were late May.

post-218-0-43489900-1354655503_thumb.png

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frigid air just dominating the pattern today. saying it's cold doesn't actually make it cold ya know, right? lol

these are 4PM temps...in Dec. this would be chilly if it were late May.

post-218-0-43489900-1354655503_thumb.png

the ocean is colder than the air now, getting dense advection fog blowing off the ocean...viz near zero with a 20 mph wind. TORCH! Its time to cancel december.

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When you look at the analogs in the pattern around D10-11...you can see how it is hit or miss for us. There are some goodies in there like mid/late Dec 1970, late Dec '71, mid Dec 2008, mid Dec 1951 (decent)....then you have some dead ratters like late Dec '88, Dec '84, and early Dec 2004.

That's the type of uncertainty we have right now.

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I can see the fact that the morphology of the boundary and its attending cylogen packages, and the placement/axis being almost 400mi E, between the 00z and 12z runs ... escaped the irrecoverably cynical in all this.

Also, to those same persons - it probably doesn't matter that the GGEM had an ending as snow event D8+, and the NOGAPs has an ice to snow event, but when you add those colder depiction to the fact that the 12z Euro came out with marked discontinuity should raise all kinds of concerns that colder solutions on a continental scale are still on the table.

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frigid air just dominating the pattern today. saying it's cold doesn't actually make it cold ya know, right? lol

these are 4PM temps...in Dec. this would be chilly if it were late May.

I'm just not sure why we need to spin it one way or another... I agree, saying its cold doesn't make it happen.

Why spin an above normal day into something that's not that bad? Its like some are trying to convince themselves that it is wintery when the temps are in the 40s and 50s.

If its above freezing, it really doesn't matter one way or another... but whatever lets some posters sleep better at night. Its always about spinning the weather one way or another. It can't just be what it is, lol.

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