Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers

[ctsnowstorm628]

what a disaster this winter ended up being . Wow. Weeklies never bust when they show warm

LOL it's 12/4.

[ORH_wxman]

He lives in DC, winter is 10 days long there.

It also doesn't start for another month there....he shouldn't be canceling anything before New Years, lol.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Oh didn't see that on the mobile.. In that case my condolences to you sir.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah I suppose...its still a terrible solution if you want frozen here though...it doesn't get the boundary nearly far enough south initially. Even powderfreak would feed his Nordic Sweater into the bullwheel while still around his neck.

6-7 days out though so I really wouldn't even pay that much attention to "trends"...they are more like random flip flops at this range. I'm definitely more interested in the period after that storm...but I think checking back in about 48-60 hours will give us an idea of whether we can get any frozen/ice out of this first system.

I was just looking for any hints of a less amped/ farther SE solution from the Euro today to give us confidence it's idea of a wrapped up Midwest bomb was likely incorrect. So in that regard we got what we were looking for. If we continue that trend on subsequent runs then we can presume that the cold HP in E Canada may win . Plenty of time left

[Brian5671]

He lives in DC, winter is 10 days long there.

[forkyfork]

the only way there's snow in new england from this event is if this can turn into an anafront type setup. there's just too much meridonal flow ahead of this system for a classic winter storm

[OKpowdah]

Trend in right direction for us though correct? More twds GFS

There really aren't "trends" right now. First of all, s/w interaction within the larger scale trough are pretty complex to be able to clearly discern storm track trends, especially at day 6-7. We'll see more like flip-flops.

And also, good luck hoping for frozen with this storm with a high exiting stage right as the low cuts north. Not too promising when you have raging southwesterly flow aloft from Texas to the Davis Straight.

For New England, Id' be much more interested in the period that follows.

[Damage In Tolland]

There really aren't "trends" right now. First of all, s/w interaction within the larger scale trough are pretty complex to be able to clearly discern storm track trends, especially at day 6-7. We'll see more like flip-flops.

And also, good luck hoping for frozen with this storm with a high exiting stage right as the low cuts north. Not too promising when you have raging southwesterly flow aloft from Texas to the Davis Straight.

For New England, Id' be much more interested in the period that follows.

Well that's exactly how you get your icing setups . Sw flow aloft overrunning deep cold high. No one thinks this is going to be a snowstorm

[danstorm]

Well that's exactly how you get your icing setups . Sw flow aloft overrunning deep cold high. No one thinks this is going to be a snowstorm

No one thinks this is a deep, cold high either.

[forkyfork]

overrunning? where?

[ChrisM]

what a disaster this winter ended up being . Wow

LOL...what?

what a .

You cancel winter every year. Then again, I would too if I lived in DC. Enjoy your 50s and sunny all winter!

[KEITH L.I]

LOL...what?

what a .

You cancel winter every year. Then again, I would too if I lived in DC. Enjoy your 50s and sunny all winter!

:lmao:

[OKpowdah]

Well that's exactly how you get your icing setups . Sw flow aloft overrunning deep cold high. No one thinks this is going to be a snowstorm

There may be a brief icing threat with the initial overrunning well ahead of the low on Monday, but there is nothing holding the high to the north in place, which already starts out a little too far north and east of the region.

[TalcottWx]

We can do without the subliminal political messages buddy. We all know what you're getting at here.

LOL get a life

[Damage In Tolland]

Now we know why Sam didn't like the trend today lol

@splillo: 00z ECMWF ... legit snowstorm for the southern Plains next Monday. http://t.co/FjjfUNpL

[ChrisM]

There may be a brief icing threat with the initial overrunning well ahead of the low on Monday, but there is nothing holding the high to the north in place, which already starts out a little too far north and east of the region.

period of the overperforming cold

[OKpowdah]

Now we know why Sam didn't like the trend today lol

@splillo: 00z ECMWF ... legit snowstorm for the southern Plains next Monday. http://t.co/FjjfUNpL

[ORH_wxman]

Don't worry, after a roller coaster month with torches and close calls and people hanging themselves by Jan 14th after a torching cutter, we'll see this:

1 47 30 0 0
2 37 24 0.04 0
3 49 37 0.38 0
4 45 34 0.29 0
5 34 24 0.13 2.3
6 32 20 1.09 6.9
7 33 23 0 0
8 29 24 0.69 2.6
9 29 19 T T
10 35 27 0 0
11 32 25 0.06 0.2
12 33 26 0.44 2.8
13 55 32 0.01 0
14 59 26 0.85 T
15 26 19 0 0
16 23 18 0.03 0.7
17 22 7 0.15 1.6
18 8 -1 0 0
19 19 -3 0.09 2.0
20 23 10 0.01 0.8
21 10 -4 0 0
22 12 -8 0.31 6.0
23 17 -1 0.85 18.1
24 18 -2 0 0
25 22 9 T T
26 17 13 0.41 6.1
27 15 2 0.01 0.8
28 20 0 0 0
29 30 9 0 0
30 37 22 0 0
31 28 15 0 0

[radarman]

Looks like the warm front has made it's way to the crest of GC. Mitch reporting a 10F jump in the last hour. We're socked in thicker than at any time all day with like 1/2 mile vis, but maybe we'll spike after all? BDL holding at 43 with their climo 44? But not sure the inversion can hold out

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I sense the line is being pushed back to January now.

[OKpowdah]

Don't worry, after a roller coaster month with torches and close calls and people hanging themselves by Jan 14th after a torching cutter, we'll see this:

1 47 30 0 0
2 37 24 0.04 0
3 49 37 0.38 0
4 45 34 0.29 0
5 34 24 0.13 2.3
6 32 20 1.09 6.9
7 33 23 0 0
8 29 24 0.69 2.6
9 29 19 T T
10 35 27 0 0
11 32 25 0.06 0.2
12 33 26 0.44 2.8
13 55 32 0.01 0
14 59 26 0.85 T
15 26 19 0 0
16 23 18 0.03 0.7
17 22 7 0.15 1.6
18 8 -1 0 0
19 19 -3 0.09 2.0
20 23 10 0.01 0.8
21 10 -4 0 0
22 12 -8 0.31 6.0
23 17 -1 0.85 18.1
24 18 -2 0 0
25 22 9 T T
26 17 13 0.41 6.1
27 15 2 0.01 0.8
28 20 0 0 0
29 30 9 0 0
30 37 22 0 0
31 28 15 0 0

January 2005?

[ChrisM]

I sense the line is being pushed back to January now.

I eagerly await to see how this is disputed.

[Damage In Tolland]

Late temp spike coming but at 3:00-4:00 the day is over. We have pushed John Mayer and his pretty guitar out of the car

[ORH_wxman]

January 2005?

Yep. The bridge jumping would be epic by 1/14 if we repeated that winter...esp for those who miss out on the 12/26/04 storm which was an eastern MA special.

As I mentioned before, it was so much more subdued on WWBB back then. People didn't panic if we didn't get 30 inches of snow by New Years. Recent prolific Decembers have spoiled a lot of weenies.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

I sense the line is being pushed back to January now.

And then February... Then March... And by then the few survivors on this board will start a new society lead by LL and forky.

[wxeyeNH]

what a disaster this winter ended up being . Wow. Weeklies never bust when they show warm

LOL at this. 4 days into Met. Winter and its already ova!

[snowman21]

Don't worry, after a roller coaster month with torches and close calls and people hanging themselves by Jan 14th after a torching cutter, we'll see this:

1 47 30 0 0
2 37 24 0.04 0
3 49 37 0.38 0
4 45 34 0.29 0
5 34 24 0.13 2.3
6 32 20 1.09 6.9
7 33 23 0 0
8 29 24 0.69 2.6
9 29 19 T T
10 35 27 0 0
11 32 25 0.06 0.2
12 33 26 0.44 2.8
13 55 32 0.01 0
14 59 26 0.85 T
15 26 19 0 0
16 23 18 0.03 0.7
17 22 7 0.15 1.6
18 8 -1 0 0
19 19 -3 0.09 2.0
20 23 10 0.01 0.8
21 10 -4 0 0
22 12 -8 0.31 6.0
23 17 -1 0.85 18.1
24 18 -2 0 0
25 22 9 T T
26 17 13 0.41 6.1
27 15 2 0.01 0.8
28 20 0 0 0
29 30 9 0 0
30 37 22 0 0
31 28 15 0 0

That looks like Jan '05. Thought it might be '04 at first, but the first half torch gave it away. Cold fronts that strong have become rare around here. Not sure we've seen a more abrupt turnaround in temperatures since.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Don't worry, after a roller coaster month with torches and close calls and people hanging themselves by Jan 14th after a torching cutter, we'll see this:

1 47 30 0 0
2 37 24 0.04 0
3 49 37 0.38 0
4 45 34 0.29 0
5 34 24 0.13 2.3
6 32 20 1.09 6.9
7 33 23 0 0
8 29 24 0.69 2.6
9 29 19 T T
10 35 27 0 0
11 32 25 0.06 0.2
12 33 26 0.44 2.8
13 55 32 0.01 0
14 59 26 0.85 T
15 26 19 0 0
16 23 18 0.03 0.7
17 22 7 0.15 1.6
18 8 -1 0 0
19 19 -3 0.09 2.0
20 23 10 0.01 0.8
21 10 -4 0 0
22 12 -8 0.31 6.0
23 17 -1 0.85 18.1
24 18 -2 0 0
25 22 9 T T
26 17 13 0.41 6.1
27 15 2 0.01 0.8
28 20 0 0 0
29 30 9 0 0
30 37 22 0 0
31 28 15 0 0

What an awesome reversal. Hammer just dropped.

[ORH_wxman]

That looks like Jan '05. Thought it might be '04 at first, but the first half torch gave it away. Cold fronts that strong have become rare around here. Not sure we've seen a more abrupt turnaround in temperatures since.

That's an extremely rare type of month in itself. We started off with 14 consecutive days above normal and then ended the month with 16 out of 17 days below normal (with 15 of them consecutive) to finish around -2.5 for the month.

Very difficult to pull that off.

[weathafella]

January 2005 featured a textbook Archambault signal in fact she used it as an example. NAO tanks as PNA comes up. During the torch period we DID get a nice system in the first week as reflected by the dailies Will posted.