Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 We can do without the subliminal political messages buddy. We all know what you're getting at here. we can do without the passive aggressive tone too. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol...he is the first one to have a meltdown over the 12/11 threat not looking like a snowstorm. Even though we said it was very possible days and days ago that we could be dealing with a cutter here. Not to mention we haven't verified this system yet. People love to verify stuff 6-7 days out for some reason. For all we know, he can ride up to Stowe nude in his Chevy Corsica and they are getting a SWFE while we are getting cold rain or interior ZR....nothing is locked yet. Beyond that, I can't see how much has changed. It still looks gradient-esque...it still looks volatile...it still looks like we will have our chances. Whether we actualyl cash in or not will decide whether this place turns into accuwx forums or stays readable. A sig icing scenario is still on the table - whether it happens or not, if anyone is letting this stuff get to them while their is still that possibility on the table, as a moderator you should question their motives and what they are really after. It's tough to know what to ignore as a leading negative post that only serves onto its self for want to have a Met tell them everything will be alright - yuck. No thanks. Learn to handle your obsession on your own - I say... And just beyond D7 we have a different construct now in these recent GFS cycles. 00z through 12z, all 3, have wintery threats. I mean ... wtf, are you folks even looking at the various fields? Or are you just looking at the 500mb level and deferring to a paragraph 1 tactic - It wasn't abundantly clear the model was morphing toward this, though we've noted that icing was also in there - but it has to do with continental cold in the lower troposphere ending up out of sync with the 500mb - it's how you get overrunning probablistically favored. so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 46 Cloudy Maybe I'll get a peek at the sun in the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 we can do without the passive defensive tone too. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 funny i meant passive aggressive too. flag on me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 we can do without the passive aggressive tone too. LOL. I guess I should have made it clearer that I was joking around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 all we are doing is reliving 12/04 to 3/05. no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 funny i meant passive aggressive too. flag on me as well. LOL. Winter will come and if it doesn't this place is going to be like the walking dead by mid January. 2nd early December in a row where I feel like I live in Virginia with the climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 all we are doing is reliving 12/04 to 3/05. no worries. With the boards the way they are now, can you imagine what that winter would have been like? We get an early season moderate (to low end major in spots) event on 11/12-13/04 only to have us torch for the better part of 3 weeks after that. Then we get some seasonal cold for a while and one minor snow event on 12/20 only to be wiped out by a torching cutter on 12/22/04. This place would be anarchy. I recall WWBB back then was pretty subdued. Its like we knew everything was fine if we didn't get 2 feet of snow before Christmas or New Years. Of course, that was before we were spoiled rotten from 2007-2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 LOL. Winter will come and if it doesn't this place is going to be like the walking dead by mid January. 2nd early December in a row where I feel like I live in Virginia with the climate. anything less than a 95-96 redux is going to be met with violence.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Pretty rough day for the torchers. it"ll warm late today but the damage is done. Not what folks envisioned for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The 00z ECMWF has one heck of a southerly LLJ blasting into SNE next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 12z or 0z? What's the 12z got for the next 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 12z Euro seems to be trending less amplified compared to previous runs. 996mb low going from KSYR northeast over KBML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 With the boards the way they are now, can you imagine what that winter would have been like? We get an early season moderate (to low end major in spots) event on 11/12-13/04 only to have us torch for the bettwe part of 3 weeks after that. Then we get some seasonal cold for a while and one minor snow event on 12/20 only to be wiped out by a torching cutter on 12/22/04. This place would be anarchy. I recall WWBB back then was pretty subdued. Its like we knew everything was fine if we didn't get 2 feet of snow before Christmas or New Years. Of course, that was before we were spoiled rotten from 2007-2010. It got cold as hell right after that storm on the aftn of 12/20. I was working outside and everything froze right up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 12z Euro seems to be trending less amplified compared to previous runs. 996mb low going from KSYR northeast over KBML. Its definitely more strung out...but that front running wave at 144h still goes NW of us over lake ontario which makes for a pretty warm solution for New England. We need that thing to get crunched to our south...or at least very close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It got cold as hell right after that storm on the aftn of 12/20. I was working outside and everything froze right up. Sorry that's such a random post to everyone..but I remember that day as my hands almost fell off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 This euro run is a more favorable pattern over all with more ridging into alaska. Storm is still warm and rain everywhere early next week, but tracks further east and is not as wrapped up. The end of this run could be interesting too, much colder into the east with a wave trying to gather in texas...alas it is days 8-10 of the op euro edit: blah, not really anything special in the end with the ridging out west fading, +nao, +AO gathering quickly at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Big diff is that 12z much more compressed with the Pac jet, keeping things progressive. Similar in that respect to 11/27, although without help from the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Its definitely more strung out...but that front running wave at 144h still goes NW of us over lake ontario which makes for a pretty warm solution for New England. We need that thing to get crunched to our south...or at least very close to us. Trend in right direction for us though correct? More twds GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Its definitely more strung out...but that front running wave at 144h still goes NW of us over lake ontario which makes for a pretty warm solution for New England. We need that thing to get crunched to our south...or at least very close to us. Yeah, if that first wave could even go over US-Canadian border in NY, it'd settle that gradient southward behind it in advance of the second, more potent wave. It's really whats going to set up that gradient over NNE/CNE. Guidance is going to have a tough time handling these individual s/w for a while...seems like once we get inside ~96hrs guidance hones in on which s/w will 'steal the show' so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Feels fairly cool out, cloudy and everything is damp, so all in all a nice day. I'm guessing any *possible* icing event next week would be confined to further in the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Trend in right direction for us though correct? More twds GFS Yeah I suppose...its still a terrible solution if you want frozen here though...it doesn't get the boundary nearly far enough south initially. Even powderfreak would feed his Nordic Sweater into the bullwheel while still around his neck. 6-7 days out though so I really wouldn't even pay that much attention to "trends"...they are more like random flip flops at this range. I'm definitely more interested in the period after that storm...but I think checking back in about 48-60 hours will give us an idea of whether we can get any frozen/ice out of this first system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Trend in right direction for us though correct? More twds GFS I think the key for you guys getting frozen precip would be the first wave that the gfs ejects out of the northern plains around days 4-5 into se canada, which brings that HP influence into the vicinity and establishes the frontal boundary with waves of precip sunday into monday (ahead of the main wave). The euro does not do this and hence it is all rain regardless of how much further east/flatter the main storm tracks on tuesday... by the way the euro op got FUGLY real quick at the end. Stratopsheric tornado for the loss at day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol I don't want a met to tell me its okay john and will this really isn't about the 12/11 storm(where icing is still on the table)Just mid december trends not our friends and that's all and that things have been looking less favorable, that's all. I did get quite a few laughs of driving the chevy? Up 91 toward a swfe in stowe, that was accuarate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Nothing compared to our west and northwest Massena Ny 67 degrees record high, wow. 66 here in Oswego. Syracuse is at 70, Rochester is at 69, Watertown is at 68, and Fulton is at 69. Too hot out for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 what a disaster this winter ended up being . Wow. Weeklies never bust when they show warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 what a disaster this winter ended up being . Wow. Weeklies never bust when they show warm They were too warm for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 what a disaster this winter ended up being . Wow. Weeklies never bust when they show warm This winter... Over? It's December fourth man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 This winter... Over? It's December fourth man. He lives in DC, winter is 10 days long there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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