eekuasepinniW Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 how do you people pull off 19 pages of posts in 24 hours when nothing is happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think that second shortwave coming through British Columbia by +150 hrs might be the most important contrary to the belief that the amplification of the first one is the make or break with that storm. Either way we're now looking at the return of the polar vortex in a not-so-ideal position through Day 7. Lake cutters may help thump it around a bit but we will need strat and solar help too in order to completely dislodge it....MJO is 6 feet under now, too.The Euro weeklies were nice but I'm not sure how much stock I'm putting into them given their performance last run. I think by the end of the month we'll be looking at a -PNA response..which will favor areas north with a bit of a developing gradient...where this sets up will be intersting to see (in terms of New England, not speaking about our area). But I hate the Euro strat vortex forecasts now. The question moving forward becomes when are we going to see this vortex break down? Yeah I think I've just about exhausted the stratosphere talk. Each wave type will take a shot at it through the next month or so and probably at some point a breakdown will occur. I'm not sure when that happens but usually it's in January with the kind of atmosphere we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah, the MJO completely dying in combination with the 11/27 event not becoming a wave breaker for the -NAO formation really messed things up. That might have been our best change to dislodge the pattern to our favor, until late December, anyway. I'm skeptical of the Euro weeklies because I don't see a driving mechanism to force a west based -NAO. Wave breakers can only do so much with the stratospheric vortex so awful and the MJO essentially dead. MJO phase 1 also correlates to positive height anomalies over Greenland, too; it's not just a +PNA/Aleutian low thing. Given weak ENSO state and not strong influence from the Atlantic, the primary pattern forcing will come from the Pacific and the vortex. Both of which look pretty bad. New England can still do okay from the Aleutian Ridge and temporary Atlantic ridging, forcing a strong thermal gradient/boundary for storms. But us? Meh. Adam and I were talking about some things that may be related to this in the philly subforum. I brought up the 30mb temperatures over the Equator which are uncharacteristically warm for a -QBO. Go there to get more info because I'm too lazy to rehash haha. I agree that you have to be skeptical about any west based -NAO solution through the rest of the month based on the stratosphere. The game is over in the Mid Atlantic basically. It is all about New England on the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah I think I've just about exhausted the stratosphere talk. Each wave type will take a shot at it through the next month or so and probably at some point a breakdown will occur. I'm not sure when that happens but usually it's in January with the kind of atmosphere we have right now. Just when you think we've exhausted the stratosphere talk, you'll start to get more people talking about it and posting maps twice a day. It's only a matter of days, I can sense it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 how do you people pull off 19 pages of posts in 24 hours when nothing is happening? It's like Groundhog Day. 1. Argue over whether it's a torch or not 2. Discussing the pending 14 day pattern change 3. Random sports or ski talk 4. Talk about a pending SWFE pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Adam and I were talking about some things that may be related to this in the philly subforum. I brought up the 30mb temperatures over the Equator which are uncharacteristically warm for a -QBO. Go there to get more info because I'm too lazy to rehash haha. I agree that you have to be skeptical about any west based -NAO solution through the rest of the month based on the stratosphere. The game is over in the Mid Atlantic basically. It is all about New England on the East Coast. Will do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah nice and icy up there from roughly sunday night through tuesday morning on this run before a less amplified storm rides in and brings in the warmer air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 how do you people pull off 19 pages of posts in 24 hours when nothing is happening? lol guess its like when I get asked ,why are there so many cars in your driveway? My answer is always, for some reason people feel comfortable here and love to hang out and shoot the s hi t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 how do you people pull off 19 pages of posts in 24 hours when nothing is happening? because the pattern is awful for big snow and they need to constantly make themselves feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's like Groundhog Day. 1. Argue over whether it's a torch or not 2. Discussing the pending 14 day pattern change 3. Random sports or ski talk 4. Talk about a pending SWFE pattern You can go back 15 years and it never changes. Like an old sweatshirt, never gets old, little tattered, has some holes but is comfortable like no other. Of course nobody forces anybody to click but they have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 because the pattern is awful for big snow and they need to constantly make themselves feel better its awful outside of a well timed SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 how do you people pull off 19 pages of posts in 24 hours when nothing is happening? Alot of it is from a poster outside of our region who hasn't gotten a forecast right since last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Alot of it is from a poster outside of our region who hasn't gotten a forecast right since last summer. lol, As well as some other outsiders to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Jerry FTW, MPM and PF will be satiated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Who posted in: Moving Through December - Changing Pa... Member name Posts CoastalWx 86 CT Blizz 69 Sultan 57 weathafella 48 ORH_wxman 44 40/70 Benchmark 41 . . . . forkyfork 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 You can go back 15 years and it never changes. Like an old sweatshirt, never gets old, little tattered, has some holes but is comfortable like no other. Of course nobody forces anybody to click but they have to. Be good if there was more talk about where the thinking failed that has resulted in early December being exactly opposite of what we were thinking a few weeks ago. That way we may have a better handle on what is upcoming. As someone pointed out earlier we had this at times last year too with models constantly showing cold in the longer term. Until the euro weeklies are solidly cold in the 2 week range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Of course nobody forces anybody to click but they have to. I rarely click anymore because it's a lot easier to just read my NWS zone and AFD. It's just a shame this place is becoming increasingly worthless to those who can't refresh the board all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Interesting evolution in the NPAC on the GFS As expected the former massive Aleutian ridge retrograded through Kamchatka and into eastern Siberia, replaced with a closed low pressure in the Bering straight region. As forecasted from last week a piece of the PV pinched off and is being squeezed underneath the big ridge near Korea and Japan. As this squirts east over the next few days it meets up with a shortwave lobe of the Bering low. Meanwhile from out of the Arctic jet another closed low is forced into the Bering region resulting in a massive phase. It's good because it rips up heights near AK a bit which should keep the air in North America seasonable at least. Also might reset the pattern... setting up another retrogression scenario, which hopefully turns into the one that turns the pattern down the road in late Dec./Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I rarely click anymore because it's a lot easier to just read my NWS zone and AFD. It's just a shame this place is becoming increasingly worthless to those who can't refresh the board all day. yea OK, I get more here than anywhere. Why would you click here?, you have a sub sub forum thread in NNE. Unfortunate that the main board is the worthless side, hurray for subforums you guys wanted. If it wasn't for Don S and Wes I would not even bother with the main board. Lighten up summer is just around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Be good if there was more talk about where the thinking failed that has resulted in early December being exactly opposite of what we were thinking a few weeks ago. That way we may have a better handle on what is upcoming. As someone pointed out earlier we had this at times last year too with models constantly showing cold in the longer term. Until the euro weeklies are solidly cold in the 2 week range.... I think Scott, HM ,Will and other explained that very well a couple of days ago. Something about an elephant. Seriously they went into depth on the second wave failure and the MJO crapping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Be good if there was more talk about where the thinking failed that has resulted in early December being exactly opposite of what we were thinking a few weeks ago. That way we may have a better handle on what is upcoming. As someone pointed out earlier we had this at times last year too with models constantly showing cold in the longer term. Until the euro weeklies are solidly cold in the 2 week range.... There has been plenty of talk but between long-winded threads like this one and several subforums, it makes the information harder to find. Also, despite the sensible weather being warmer, a lot of things happened that were projected to happen in early December. Finally, I don't see this "models constantly showing cold in the longer term" thing like you are seeing. What I see is volatile modeling in a pattern where there isn't a dominate force. The La Niña-like pattern is coming in this week and will be complete by this weekend which should take us through Christmas. Nothing has changed in that regard and still offers wintry opportunities for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think Scott, HM ,Will and other explained that very well a couple of days ago. Something about an elephant. Seriously they went into depth on the second wave failure and the MJO crapping out. I think people are hopping aboard the Dec 2006 and 2011 bandwagon way too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I rarely click anymore because it's a lot easier to just read my NWS zone and AFD. It's just a shame this place is becoming increasingly worthless to those who can't refresh the board all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I heard there was another earthquake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Looks like any blocking we do up in the North Atlantic is displaced way east, like east of the UK. I dont think that really does anything for us, especially considering the nature of the Pacific and the pesky atlantic high just off the NE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I heard there was another earthquake? Where? http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ Dont see anything outside the usual places like AK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I feel as thou the pattern has morphed into something almost awful and people are tossing around awt's because there is any pattern change. Almost like the way kevin verifys his forecasts.ie the december period is having minor subtle stepdowns in (positivity lol) but they are all mentioned under the guise of this was "on the table" so nothing really changed,(except the weather forecast for sne) I think ryan will be one to get up and say "ya the pattern pretty much sucks but we could get lucky if things break right down the road. Yes its early dec, but boy was this period prog'd to be better a few weeks ago. That's not all, not that it isn't insanely difficult to forecast and no one was expecting ku city. Just something more than hope and change and a well timed swfe, and weenies are just concerned trying to decipher the fact that is seems sustained normal or below temps are being pushd back from early dec to perpetually two weeks ahead and any way u slice it that sucks and this reality seems to get brush'd over Yes this chance was on the table, yes we knew it, but its looking more likely and the recent nao trends and euro ao trends would likely put us on the wrong side of the upcoming gradient most of the time in sne,for the forecastable future,no?unless of course we get lucky. If I was in nne I would be excited about the pattern, if I was in cne I'd be optomistic, but alas were not. A stronger -ao would change my thinking for sne but its not terribly in our favor in the ens anymore. So basically all I'm saying is we should acknowledge the pattern change is not as favorable percentage wise, as we hoped and thought even for mid december, sure we could get lucky,but we could get lucky in a crappy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 What a freaking weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Earthquake was in Maine I heard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Earthquake was in Maine I heard? Yes. 2.3 in basically the same spot where the 4.0 one occurred. One of my co-workers felt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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