HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The 11/27 event trended weaker because there was very weak baroclinicity with it. The shortwave became very strung out because there was no real potential energy for the storm to tap into. There was a weak, broad trough with relatively high heights and not a great thermal gradient. The fact that it trended weaker allowed for the east based -NAO to actually have an effect in pushing it east, along with a fact that a weaker shortwave won't amplify the downstream flow much. This storm definitely has more amplification potential than the last event did. Great post. On a global or broader scale, this storm is also the "momentum shift" type of an event where the Earth's exchange with angular momentum is locally restored after the recent +MT by the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Keep this month in mind. Boston climate December 2008: I had mentioned that month a few times as an example of a see-saw/rollercoaster pattern that we ended up cashing in on despite the month finishing near +1. We had several 2-3 day torches that month. But BOS finished with over 25" of snow. Over 30" back this way with an epic ice storm to go with it. Its easy to miss out in a pattern like that too. You just need a few unpredictable factors to go against you, or go for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 good, have it amped. Bring a windstorm/LES after it passes. Yea I think that would be the best possible outcome at least from a SNE non high elevation viewpoint, who wants a little icing then rain. Cut hard dry slot then some impressive squalls works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yea I think that would be the best possible outcome at least from a SNE non high elevation viewpoint, who wants a little icing then rain. Cut hard dry slot then some impressive squalls works for me. Big storm will be nice looking on the water vapor loop though. Not Boring! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Big storm will be nice looking on the water vapor loop though. Not Boring! lol And those snow squalls we always get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I had mentioned that month a few times as an example of a see-saw/rollercoaster pattern that we ended up cashing in on despite the month finishing near +1. We had several 2-3 day torches that month. But BOS finished with over 25" of snow. Over 30" back this way with an epic ice storm to go with it. Its easy to miss out in a pattern like that too. You just need a few unpredictable factors to go against you, or go for you. Yes you've mentioned that month and perhaps it's a good analog particularly factoring in November wx that year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Friday is a Ctblizz torch on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yes you've mentioned that month and perhaps it's a good analog particularly factoring in November wx that year as well. I'd like to rebuild high heights over AK at some point later this month to feel good about a potential repeat of that fun period in '08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Friday is a Ctblizz torch on the GFS. What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'll be racking up my traces in no time! Certainly exciting weather about to occur to our west. The usual "bleed east" wording seems in effect mid-month. Seems that way. I get the feeling I won't be doing much better in sw CT than you would be in central NJ in a gradient pattern. Dec 2008 was markedly better in this region than further sw, but that mid-dec wintry pattern for new england was driven by a stud -epo block, along side a -pna, +nao. The nao in the long range looks better than 2008, but the east pacific ridge does not look poleward enough to get me very excited. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Great post. On a global or broader scale, this storm is also the "momentum shift" type of an event where the Earth's exchange with angular momentum is locally restored after the recent +MT by the Rockies. I think that second shortwave coming through British Columbia by +150 hrs might be the most important contrary to the belief that the amplification of the first one is the make or break with that storm. Either way we're now looking at the return of the polar vortex in a not-so-ideal position through Day 7. Lake cutters may help thump it around a bit but we will need strat and solar help too in order to completely dislodge it....MJO is 6 feet under now, too.The Euro weeklies were nice but I'm not sure how much stock I'm putting into them given their performance last run. I think by the end of the month we'll be looking at a -PNA response..which will favor areas north with a bit of a developing gradient...where this sets up will be intersting to see (in terms of New England, not speaking about our area). But I hate the Euro strat vortex forecasts now. The question moving forward becomes when are we going to see this vortex break down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 You have to admit that this is slightly like last year where the GFS/EC would show a cold winter pattern in weeks 3-4 and then as we got closer to that time period they would warm and they would continue to repeat this over and over. I am not saying the warmth or alything else except the GFS/EC weeks 3-4 is like last year! just how they keep showing a good pattern in weeks 3-4 and then change it when that time comes around. Yep nobody here wants to make that point yet and ultimately this IS different than last year as temps are not as warm. But so far we're getting the Charlie Brown syndrome again of the 2.5 to 4 week period looking good but never getting any closer. I don't have the same hopes as everyone else. I just want to see things get more near normal but do expect we're going to be on the warmer side of even for quite some time. We'll have cold periods and threats this year for sure. It'll take another 2 weeks of the pattern change being 3 weeks away before we will see a mass realization. A couple of weeks ago people were saying the first week or two would be cold and we'd flip to warm by Xmas. Now we're warm and hoping to flip to cold by Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Big storm will be nice looking on the water vapor loop though. Not Boring! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 what a beastly ridge in the pac on the 12z gfs. i can't see the weekend event going east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think that second shortwave coming through British Columbia by +150 hrs might be the most important contrary to the belief that the amplification of the first one is the make or break with that storm. Either way we're now looking at the return of the polar vortex in a not-so-ideal position through Day 7. Lake cutters may help thump it around a bit but we will need strat and solar help too in order to completely dislodge it....MJO is 6 feet under now, too.The Euro weeklies were nice but I'm not sure how much stock I'm putting into them given their performance last run. I think by the end of the month we'll be looking at a -PNA response..which will favor areas north with a bit of a developing gradient...where this sets up will be intersting to see (in terms of New England, not speaking about our area). But I hate the Euro strat vortex forecasts now. The question moving forward becomes when are we going to see this vortex break down? Yeah, the MJO completely dying in combination with the 11/27 event not becoming a wave breaker for the -NAO formation really messed things up. That might have been our best change to dislodge the pattern to our favor, until late December, anyway. I'm skeptical of the Euro weeklies because I don't see a driving mechanism to force a west based -NAO. Wave breakers can only do so much with the stratospheric vortex so awful and the MJO essentially dead. MJO phase 1 also correlates to positive height anomalies over Greenland, too; it's not just a +PNA/Aleutian low thing. Given weak ENSO state and not strong influence from the Atlantic, the primary pattern forcing will come from the Pacific and the vortex. Both of which look pretty bad. New England can still do okay from the Aleutian Ridge and temporary Atlantic ridging, forcing a strong thermal gradient/boundary for storms. But us? Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 GFS wants some interior fun like 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 -Massive firehose arriving in the pac NW -HP stretched across the entire northern tier of the US -Virtually irrelevant NAO LP may ride along the gradient north of us anyway, but I think a bombed out cutter is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 GFS wants some interior fun like 06z. Yeah that is oozing low level cold there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 what a beastly ridge in the pac on the 12z gfs. i can't see the weekend event going east Yeah, the height lines are oriented due north to south just OFF the PAC Coast at 108 hours. That screams a westward solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah that is oozing low level cold there. Yeah great setup for ZR along and north of the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I know many are concerned with the stratosphere and reasonably so, but you can get periods of tropospheric induced -NAOs. You don't always need a lake cutter to throw a ridge into the Davis Straits either...a nice Aleutian or even AK ridge can help teleconnect to one. Of course it probably would mean more transient and/or east based -NAOs...but just something to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 this a Forky fantasy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 If it's a choice between crippling ice of 55 showers I'll take the latter. I enjoy electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah that is oozing low level cold there. Talk oozy to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Trending towards a SWFE. Not that it means alot 6 days out but the trend is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 GFS really validates the 2008 comparison with an interior ice storm almost to the date...lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Jerry I would be totally impressed if the precip pattern flipped and we get 7 plus like Dec 08. Definetly not boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah that is oozing low level cold there. Yeah, despite the very amplified look, shortwaves and areas of vorticity run through Quebec and Ontario, creating a confluent zone, which creates a nice surface high and further enhances the thermal gradient. The gradient is so strong over so much area that precip can run well out ahead of the storm. So even if the main storm ultimately takes a pretty far westward track, an ice event could still occur since precip can overspread the region when it's still cold in New England and when the storm is well to the south. How much precip works its way northeastward in advance of the storm will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah, despite the very amplified look, shortwaves and areas of vorticity run through Quebec and Ontario, creating a confluent zone, which creates a nice surface high and further enhances the thermal gradient. The gradient is so strong over so much area that precip can run well out ahead of the storm. So even if the storm ultimately takes a pretty far westward track, an ice event could still occur. Yeah the GFS has been doing that for a few runs, while the euro is further west and more amped up with the CONUS trough..and less confluence over Canada. That's why I thought the interior could start as ice, but I couldn't really say much more 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Big storm will be nice looking on the water vapor loop though. Not Boring! lol When is your VT trip? I eagerly await the massive NNE posting binge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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