CarverWX Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 You have to admit that this is slightly like last year where the GFS/EC would show a cold winter pattern in weeks 3-4 and then as we got closer to that time period they would warm and they would continue to repeat this over and over. I am not saying the warmth or alything else except the GFS/EC weeks 3-4 is like last year! just how they keep showing a good pattern in weeks 3-4 and then change it when that time comes around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think Chris was just busting your balls but being in touch with your sensitive side is understandable these last few days. Well by my Dr Phil comment...I think you can see I'm bustin' too. I do think sometimes people tend to feel that way. It's tough to break down something meteorologically....and then somehow try to show what that means for real life situations. Most don't care and only want to know if that means snow, but you know as well as anyone...that question is a very difficult one to nail. So, we do our best to answer...but many times you have to do it in a roundabout and probabilistic way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Living life on the edge of the gradient, There will be winners and losers, All you can do is hope your on the right side of it in this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 How's mom holding up? she would be at the point now where nothing makes her comfortable...is she pleading with little scooter to come out yet? She's good..we both are ansty though..lol. I don't want to clog the thread up with all this...but thanks for all your concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Anyone else a little worried about the last day in model runs? The 12/10-12/20 period no longer looks as favorable. Pacific remains relatively hostile and I'm not sure we can count on any west based NAO blocking... maybe transient ridging? I was a little disappointed when I started catching back up on the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Well by my Dr Phil comment...I think you can see I'm bustin' too. I do think sometimes people tend to feel that way. It's tough to break down something meteorologically....and then somehow try to show what that means for real life situations. Most don't care and only want to know if that means snow, but you know as well as anyone...that question is a very difficult one to nail. So, we do our best to answer...but many times you have to do it in a roundabout and probabilistic way. you guys are extremely helpful, don't underrate yourselves. I know most of what I know because of this forum, the online readings are supplements. I and I assume many others just don't even bother talking about our meteorological knowledge because it's so irrelevant compared to a lot of the mets and serious hobbyists on here. What could I say that's of any value that hasn't been said? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think the stronger/more phased solution makes sense, though. You've got the ridge shifting eastward over to the GoA, which should free up the very cold air over W Canada to dive southward. Then it's just basic baroclinic instability going to town. Yeah, thats the biggest difference between the GEFS and Euro ensembles...the GEFS has a flatter ridge offshore of the WC at D6...the Euro ensembles are more amplified with the ridge so it goes nuclear with the trough downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think the stronger/more phased solution makes sense, though. You've got the ridge shifting eastward over to the GoA, which should free up the very cold air over W Canada to dive southward. Then it's just basic baroclinic instability going to town. Yeah I would agree as well. There isn't much in the way to block this from going west. I suppose you could have the PV in the way like the 06z GFS has, but I would like to see more evidence of this going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 good, have it amped. Bring a windstorm/LES after it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Yeah I would agree as well. There isn't much in the way to block this from going west. It's clearly going west, I think the bigger question is how wrapped up will it be? I'm buying off on the more amplified solutions due to the baroclinic potential and the stratospheric progs, but if that's wrong, then it could be a lot weaker because you never get the strong CAA to cause the s/w to bottom out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think the stronger/more phased solution makes sense, though. You've got the ridge shifting eastward over to the GoA, which should free up the very cold air over W Canada to dive southward. Then it's just basic baroclinic instability going to town. Dont forget though, Euro and Euro ens had the less amped solution first earlier in the week before it flipped to the current look. Won't be shocking if it flips back to what Gfs ens have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Dont forget though, Euro and Euro ens had the less amped solution first earlier in the week before it flipped to the current look. Won't be shocking if it flips back to what Gfs ens have Forecasting, not modelcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Forecasting, not modelcasting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Forecasting, not modelcasting Exactly . And which scenario makes more sense when you see a - Nao and cold HP in e Canada? Meteorology not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Exactly . And which scenario makes more sense when you see a - Nao and cold HP in e Canada? Meteorology not modelology We don't really have a -NAO though. We have slightly higher heights over near Iceland but a vortex sitting near Baffin Island. We do have that cold high pressure...but there is uncertainty in how far south it can makes its impact felt. That is why strength of this system is key...its going to come up west initially...if its weaker, then that is a classic icing threat for our area all else equal...if its stronger, then not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 We don't really have a -NAO though. We have slightly higher heights over near Iceland but a vortex sitting near Baffin Island. We do have that cold high pressure...but there is uncertainty in how far south it can makes its impact felt. That is why strength of this system is key...its going to come up west initially...if its weaker, then that is a classic icing threat for our area all else equal...if its stronger, then not so much. Would you say 50/50 odds on either scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I could see the interior at least start as some ice...I think that is plausible..but I'm not sure of the CtBlizz damaging ice event at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 We don't really have a -NAO though. We have slightly higher heights over near Iceland but a vortex sitting near Baffin Island. We do have that cold high pressure...but there is uncertainty in how far south it can makes its impact felt. That is why strength of this system is key...its going to come up west initially...if its weaker, then that is a classic icing threat for our area all else equal...if its stronger, then not so much. Good post... agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I could see the interior at least start as some ice...I think that is plausible..but I'm not sure of the CtBlizz damaging ice event at this stage. Will need a weak, strung out kind of low. That may be hard to accomplish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's clearly going west, I think the bigger question is how wrapped up will it be? I'm buying off on the more amplified solutions due to the baroclinic potential and the stratospheric progs, but if that's wrong, then it could be a lot weaker because you never get the strong CAA to cause the s/w to bottom out. Height tendency equation Sorry, just had a flashback to college. Lol. I remember initially, the Euro had a coastal snowstorm with this, which was pretty apparent that it would either get muted due to lack of separation between short waves, or trend pretty amped given the upstream pattern. There is certainly a pretty strong thermal gradient to work with and it has a classic westward tilt with height look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I could see the interior at least start as some ice...I think that is plausible..but I'm not sure of the CtBlizz damaging ice event at this stage. Lol I'm not ready to go there yet, but if we see continued colder trends and that HP becoming stronger which many times we do as we get closer then we can go damage if we have to. For now we stay the course and toss over amped euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 A couple of torch thoughts. Tomorrow may have some major warmth particularly eastern areas. Mid 50s at least. Friday through Monday may have some very warm days. 12/1-10 may have widespread +5 departures. Harder to knock those back later in December with climo dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol I'm not ready to go there yet, but if we see continued colder trends and that HP becoming stronger which many times we do as we get closer then we can go damage if we have to. For now we stay the course and toss over amped euro How much snow are you expecting between 12/10 and 12/20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Would you say 50/50 odds on either scenario? Sure, it is 6-7 days out, lol. I don't see an all frozen event right now...but if the storm is a bit weaker and/or the high manages to press further south ahead of the system, then we could see a period of frozen during the first half of the system. A mega-wound up low would produce probably only a shot at brief sleet/ice at the onset and then torch us to 55F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'd tag this one as your token mix to rain event potential in NYC/NJ as well.. sounds fun I'll be racking up my traces in no time! Certainly exciting weather about to occur to our west. The usual "bleed east" wording seems in effect mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The 11/27 event trended weaker because there was very weak baroclinicity with it. The shortwave became very strung out because there was no real potential energy for the storm to tap into. There was a weak, broad trough with relatively high heights and not a great thermal gradient. The fact that it trended weaker allowed for the east based -NAO to actually have an effect in pushing it east, along with the fact that a weaker shortwave won't amplify the downstream flow much. This storm definitely has more amplification potential than the last event did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The 11/27 event trended weaker because there was very weak baroclinicity with it. The shortwave became very strung out because there was no real potential energy for the storm to tap into. There was a weak, broad trough with relatively high heights and not a great thermal gradient. The fact that it trended weaker allowed for the east based -NAO to actually have an effect in pushing it east, along with a fact that a weaker shortwave won't amplify the downstream flow much. This storm definitely has more amplification potential than the last event did. modelology and weenieism please. No place for meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Would rather see this next one be a weak strung out POS then a full blown wound up cutter, But whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Keep this month in mind. Boston climate December 2008: PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: BOSTON MA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2008 LATITUDE: 42 22 N LONGITUDE: 71 2 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 60 44 52 12 13 0 0.11 M 0 11.6 30 230 M M 6 1 39 220 2 48 38 43 4 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.7 23 230 M M 3 32 270 3 46 34 40 1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 14 220 M M 0 22 270 4 55 35 45 6 20 0 T 0.0 0 15.0 28 230 M M 7 36 230 5 42 31 37 -1 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.2 20 300 M M 6 25 300 6 37 27 32 -6 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.4 15 220 M M 7 18 220 7 37 25 31 -6 34 0 0.07 1.5 1 11.0 30 290 M M 9 12 40 310 8 25 14 20 -17 45 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.8 30 300 M M 1 39 290 9 56 17 37 0 28 0 0.05 T 0 10.5 28 210 M M 9 1 39 220 10 63 40 52 16 13 0 0.40 0.0 0 19.9 37 220 M M 9 1 49 220 11 40 36 38 2 27 0 1.15 0.0 0 14.4 22 50 M M 9 1 28 50 12 48 32 40 4 25 0 2.29 0.0 0 15.1 26 300 M M 8 1 36 290 13 32 23 28 -7 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.6 22 320 M M 1 29 320 14 43 22 33 -2 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.6 20 220 M M 5 26 220 15 63 43 53 18 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 20.0 36 220 M M 7 47 240 16 61 29 45 10 20 0 0.02 M M 11.7 26 220 M M 10 1 33 300 17 42 28 35 1 30 0 0.47 1.0 M 10.8 23 100 M M 8 124 26 90 18 40 32 36 2 29 0 0.00 0.0 M 8.6 17 260 M M 5 23 270 19 34 15 25 -9 40 0 0.88 8.8 M 17.3 37 60 M M 8 129 46 50 20 20 13 17 -16 48 0 0.18 3.7 M 16.5 23 10 M M 10 19 31 10 21 36 19 28 -5 37 0 0.51 3.8 M 22.1 33 300 M M 10 1249 41 300 22 27 17 22 -11 43 0 0.00 0.0 M 20.5 36 280 M M 1 46 270 23 28 15 22 -11 43 0 0.00 0.0 M 10.4 18 290 M M 2 26 280 24 52 27 40 8 25 0 0.14 0.0 M 15.0 30 210 M M 10 1 38 210 25 55 31 43 11 22 0 0.08 0.0 M 17.8 37 290 M M 6 1 52 290 26 36 25 31 -1 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.9 13 320 M M 5 18 330 27 49 36 43 11 22 0 0.34 0.0 0 9.2 23 230 M M 10 1 28 230 28 62 44 53 21 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 18.2 31 230 M M 8 1 39 270 29 44 33 39 8 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.7 30 280 M M 4 39 270 30 40 28 34 3 31 0 0.01 M 0 17.0 37 270 M M 6 1 45 270 31 28 9 19 -12 46 0 0.40 6.5 M 15.4 35 320 M M 8 129 46 330 ================================================================================ SM 1349 862 902 0 7.10 25.3 424.1 M 198 ================================================================================ AV 43.5 27.8 13.7 FASTST M M 6 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 37 220 # 52 290 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: BOSTON MA MONTH: DECEMBER YEAR: 2008 LATITUDE: 42 22 N LONGITUDE: 71 2 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 35.7 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 7.10 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 0.9 DPTR FM NORMAL: 3.37 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 63 ON 15,10 GRTST 24HR 3.32 ON 11-12 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 9 ON 31 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 25.3 INCHES 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 8.8 ON M 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 1 ON 7 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 6 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 16 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 11 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 21 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 4 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 2 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 902 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 6 DPTR FM NORMAL -30 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 15 TOTAL FM JUL 1 1977 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 10 DPTR FM NORMAL 1 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 789 HIGHEST SLP M ON M DPTR FM NORMAL 12 LOWEST SLP 29.22 ON 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 How much snow are you expecting between 12/10 and 12/20? No idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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