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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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Lol deniers of the warmth. My wife just called and asked when's it getting cold? Foggy low 40s now but it's a torch. Steve says countryside was chilly? How so with the high dews?

BDL got to 29F...their average low is 28F. So the radiating spots did pretty well. Not a torch on the low temps there.

But these 3 days I would definitely qualify as a torch overall.

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Things will get better. We've been spoiled with early onset winters. If we're colder and seeing sustained wintry weather by Xmas I'll be happy. I figured the 19th ish...hoping we get 2-5 good days of cold prior to ho ho ho.

I think I average about 8 inches of snow in Dec. The soltise is usually when the winter arrives here. Further north Dec 1 is a good date. Probably average about 35% white at Christmas, expectations are kept low. Right now I hope NNE ski,snowmobiling areas get a good base building cover.

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Lol deniers of the warmth. My wife just called and asked when's it getting cold? Foggy low 40s now but it's a torch. Steve says countryside was chilly? How so with the high dews?

It was 28 this morning early, heavy frost, now a glorious 36 with steady rain, awesome. I did not see anyone deny the temps are above normal.

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The idea of something toward the 20th that you first had last month definitely caught on and now makes the most sense. The cold will be slower to build eastward but the east-based -NAO will eventually work out. Could save someone from a brown Christmas in New England.

Well I certainly did not envision the type of pattern were seeing in Dec leading into that period when first mentioned. But part of that idea was based off of some of the discussion on declining blocking, warmer pattern tendencies leading into the holidays discussion that were originally discussed a few weeks back. I guess that part of it still holds some weight, and I definitely see that nice signal for a system on the ensembles showing up too.

I'd tag this one as your token mix to rain event potential in NYC/NJ as well.. sounds fun :whistle:

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Yeah, it gets to the point where I have to think like a weenie and word things in a way where I hope they understand...but I think your translation is right..lol.

Dude people are just busting your balls, relax. Who would I be to make fun of anyone's LR forecast anyway? I don't expect snow here before Christmas, this has all been a bonus. I hope Mini-Scooter brings a snowstorm with him though...you've gotta be so excited at this point huh?

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Adam is beating the drum for the day 6/7 low as being an intense midwest/plains snowstorm.

If its wound up and intense out in the midwest, then that reduces the icing/frozen potential in New England...the GFS and GEFs have been trending flatter/colder with it...but the Euro has been pretty wound up.

The Euro is going full-on phase with that system. If it fails to do that though, then I think there could be some people surprised at how wintry that system could end up. The high to the north is in a good spots and its very cold...it just depends how much cold air it can filter down in time.

I think right now, you favor the Euro/ensembles because of their superior skill, though given we are a week out, a lot could change.

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Dude people are just busting your balls, relax. Who would I be to make fun of anyone's LR forecast anyway? I don't expect snow here before Christmas, this has all been a bonus. I hope Mini-Scooter brings a snowstorm with him though...you've gotta be so excited at this point huh?

We should have done a baby pool, back when he announced it I picked the 12 th, the new moon date. We could have put money in and bought the baby something, like a Davis 2.

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Dude people are just busting your balls, relax. Who would I be to make fun of anyone's LR forecast anyway? I don't expect snow here before Christmas, this has all been a bonus. I hope Mini-Scooter brings a snowstorm with him though...you've gotta be so excited at this point huh?

Yep, thanks for asking though.

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If its wound up and intense out in the midwest, then that reduces the icing/frozen potential in New England...the GFS and GEFs have been trending flatter/colder with it...but the Euro has been pretty wound up.

The Euro is going full-on phase with that system. If it fails to do that though, then I think there could be some people surprised at how wintry that system could end up. The high to the north is in a good spots and its very cold...it just depends how much cold air it can filter down in time.

I think right now, you favor the Euro/ensembles because of their superior skill, though given we are a week out, a lot could change.

Euro famous for over amp. We'll see what happens
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If its wound up and intense out in the midwest, then that reduces the icing/frozen potential in New England...the GFS and GEFs have been trending flatter/colder with it...but the Euro has been pretty wound up.

The Euro is going full-on phase with that system. If it fails to do that though, then I think there could be some people surprised at how wintry that system could end up. The high to the north is in a good spots and its very cold...it just depends how much cold air it can filter down in time.

I think right now, you favor the Euro/ensembles because of their superior skill, though given we are a week out, a lot could change.

I think the stronger/more phased solution makes sense, though. You've got the ridge shifting eastward over to the GoA, which should free up the very cold air over W Canada to dive southward. Then it's just basic baroclinic instability going to town.

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