SouthCoastMA Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The La Niña pattern coming up has the look of Will's composite map that featured snowy Decembers for New England. So there is no way I'm giving up yet for you guys. Down my way, we are punting...and probably Jets Style. Sanchez into lineman's as$ south of 41N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'm sorry but this so called massive torch has underperformed in New England. I don't see how anyone can deny that I think it was kinda AMT. Thoughts were 50s and 60s for 2-3 days. It's 35F here right now probably going toward the 50s, yesterday topped out at 55 and the day before that was 53. It wasn't a torch, but it was +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 6z GFS shows 4-6" of snow ending as IP/ZR at 144h up here. I'll take that please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'm sorry but this so called massive torch has underperformed in New England. I don't see how anyone can deny that One of those days where every climo station except BDL had lows ten degrees higher than the countryside so the official record will reflect today as having high overnight mins when below freezing was the norm. No doubt yesterday and today are way above normal and there is more to come. Of course the non winter fans love it. Congrats to them. Winter solstice still 16 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Sanchez into lineman's as$ south of 41N? The butt fumble will be talked about for years to come. Perhaps one of the most enjoyable losses I've ever had the privilege of watching... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/03/mark-sanchez-buttfumble-jersey_n_2232993.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 the 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs off the 00z gefs are a bit ugly. though if you roll them forward the pattern does get better in the 16-30 day period. Outstanding. I don't see much happening for us prior to 12/19-12/20. We still will have an opportunity or two perhaps but instead of cold/mild with events on either side the predominant weather has gone back to mild with some random cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'm sorry but this so called massive torch has underperformed in New England. I don't see how anyone can deny that It's been a day so far...and it was 55-60 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's been a day so far...and it was 55-60 yesterday Above normal absolutely , but massive torch and 60's as advertised for 2-3 days just did not work out. No big deal. We move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The butt fumble will be talked about for years to come. Perhaps one of the most enjoyable losses I've ever had the privilege of watching... http://www.huffingto..._n_2232993.html Giants fan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Above normal absolutely , but massive torch and 60's as advertised for 2-3 days just did not work out. No big deal. We move on It has here. It's been warm now for 3 straight days and is in the 50s already at 9am.I'm hoping for a change in about 2 weeks, but thinking more and more that it may not be coming and what we're going to see is a gradual shift to seasonable weather so these "torches" are 45 instead of 55 punctuated by periods of winter weather. I'm thinking sustained long term cold is going to be hard to come by the next 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I don't know of any real indicators for when you can anticipate a proper coupling other than perhaps a coherent MJO signal going on or some type of hemisphere exchange in momentum. I suppose if you know that certain factors like "upward wave flux" will be favorable from Siberia but your vortex is very strong, you might anticipate a possible decoupling. The time of year is also a factor with the seasonal radiating cycle October-December and usually the time of PV intensification. It is very unusual to see a stratosphere like 2009 or 2010 to start off the year. Bottom-up warmings are more sudden and quickly affect the pattern, sometimes down to the day it happens and these usually are from wave 2 deals. Each type of wave will upwell over the next month and take a stab at the PV. The big question is: when will the final breakdown happen, if at all? Cool. and yeah I would still think the odds are greater this year than many to maybe see some mid-winter pv breakdown, or at least another formidable -AO period. Yeah I followed up with my last post saying it's still in a position to help us...just gotta keep that feature persistent on the models. It's definitely a pattern that has delivered, but Will had a good analogy saying how we are on the knife's edge..and I agree. The one thing I did like on the ensembles, was how the mass fields tries to show areas of subtle low pressure to our south. To me, that meant probably some overrunning deals or SWFE type possibitlies at the least. Of course we all know the caveats of models that far out...but just sayin'. I guess there is a lot to be said about being on the knife's edge/baroclinic zone and being in the game for storminess. A lot of uncertainties, but at least you are in it. The ensembles still give me the impression that the period after the 11th-12th cutter to lets say the 20th still holds the most promise in new england. The seemingly constant more west based -NAO signal in the 11-15 day and on the weeklies is not getting me excited until i see it within 10 days, and i dont really expect that to happen for reasons discussed by you guys...but id think it can become even slightly more favorable over that time frame to at least allow fun for you guys...Getting deeper into december is on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Work outside cancel, steady rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It is 930am. Where most people live, yesterday tickled U50s to 60. Last night was supposed to cool off. Tonight, notsomuch. Not sure how rad cooling spots being cool this AM has anything to do with departures since their mins run lower anyways. I want the cold back as much as anyone, but accept your few days of warmth and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Giants fan? I was born a Jets fan. And so I don't get blamed again for a thread derailment, I would say the only thing promising on the EC stratosphere forecasts is the EP vectors. The placement of the strato-vortex and strength is ugly through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I was born a Jets fan. And so I don't get blamed again for a thread derailment, I would say the only thing promising on the EC stratosphere forecasts is the EP vectors. The placement of the strato-vortex and strength is ugly through day 10. And even then, they're only pointed poleward, not upward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I guess there is a lot to be said about being on the knife's edge/baroclinic zone and being in the game for storminess. A lot of uncertainties, but at least you are in it. The ensembles still give me the impression that the period after the 11th-12th cutter to lets say the 20th still holds the most promise in new england. The seemingly constant more west based -NAO signal in the 11-15 day and on the weeklies is not getting me excited until i see it within 10 days, and i dont really expect that to happen for reasons discussed by you guys...but id think it can become even slightly more favorable over that time frame to at least allow fun for you guys...Getting deeper into december is on your side. The idea of something toward the 20th that you first had last month definitely caught on and now makes the most sense. The cold will be slower to build eastward but the east-based -NAO will eventually work out. Could save someone from a brown Christmas in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 There was no rain in my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 And even then, they're only pointed poleward, not upward Yep. Usually the poleward EP vectors are strongly pointed upward with a tilt toward the pole, instead of weakly pointed directly at the pole. It is certainly an interesting EP vector forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It is 930am. Where most people live, yesterday tickled U50s to 60. Last night was supposed to cool off. Tonight, notsomuch. Not sure how rad cooling spots being cool this AM has anything to do with departures since their mins run lower anyways. I want the cold back as much as anyone, but accept your few days of warmth and move on. Rain and 36 degrees my favorite kind of weather, give me yesterday back thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I guess there is a lot to be said about being on the knife's edge/baroclinic zone and being in the game for storminess. A lot of uncertainties, but at least you are in it. The ensembles still give me the impression that the period after the 11th-12th cutter to lets say the 20th still holds the most promise in new england. The seemingly constant more west based -NAO signal in the 11-15 day and on the weeklies is not getting me excited until i see it within 10 days, and i dont really expect that to happen for reasons discussed by you guys...but id think it can become even slightly more favorable over that time frame to at least allow fun for you guys...Getting deeper into december is on your side. LOL, tell me about it. I agree that parts of New England..especially NNE probably have the best shot with this pattern. It is more dicey here, but it does appear to hold some threats going forward and I think we'll probably see a series of modest events coming over or perhaps underneath us. Maybe it's something to the like of riding the edge here for a week or so, and then getting the storm track to nudge south near or after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 There was no rain in my forecast. That's actually Kevins crocodile tears for his lost snow blowing down the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 LOL, tell me about it. I agree that parts of New England..especially NNE probably have the best shot with this pattern. It is more dicey here, but it does appear to hold some threats going forward and I think we'll probably see a series of modest events coming over or perhaps underneath us. Maybe it's something to the like of riding the edge here for a week or so, and then getting the storm track to nudge south near or after the 20th. Pushed back another 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 36/35. -RN. OVC002 Not exactly Dec. 2001 sunbathing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Pushed back another 10 days? Nothing has been pushed back. A La Niña pattern with east based NAO "reflection" mid-month is definitely happen and will target the West and Central States the hardest first. Gradient patterns are tough to nail down. Also, ideas of something toward the 20th have been floating around for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 36/35. -RN. OVC002 Not exactly Dec. 2001 sunbathing At least down here the sun comes out after a foggy start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 That's actually Kevins crocodile tears for his lost snow blowing down the mountain. Guess we need the rain but 36 and raining has put a damper on my plans today. I guess I should have looked deeper into the progs, reading here and seeing my NWS PNC I thought today was mid 50 s, cloudy kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 36/35. -RN. OVC002 Not exactly Dec. 2001 sunbathing Nah this Is Saab top down convertible torch wx. Enjoy !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Guess we need the rain but 36 and raining has put a damper on my plans today. I guess I should have looked deeper into the progs, reading here and seeing my NWS PNC I thought today was mid 50 s, cloudy kind of day. Things will get better. We've been spoiled with early onset winters. If we're colder and seeing sustained wintry weather by Xmas I'll be happy. I figured the 19th ish...hoping we get 2-5 good days of cold prior to ho ho ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I am kind of surprised that ORH made it down to 36F. I thought it would rot in the 42-43F range all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol deniers of the warmth. My wife just called and asked when's it getting cold? Foggy low 40s now but it's a torch. Steve says countryside was chilly? How so with the high dews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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