CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I would think we will see next weeks storm continue to cool as we move thru this week. Already signs of CAD on some modeling There is, but CAD does not automatically mean ice. We'll need a chilly antecedent airmass...just not sure how much there is to work with, but it is early. The 06z GFS actually was decent ice for areas near the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 There is, but CAD does not automatically mean ice. We'll need a chilly antecedent airmass...just not sure how much there is to work with, but it is early. The 06z GFS actually was decent ice for areas near the NH border. Scott, don't we want this system to cut well west to help establish a west based -nao? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 38.4 with fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 A ltitle fog out there this AM. Vis ~100ft or less. Quality not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Can't wait for some cold and snow! maybe by Christmas we will have something OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The modeling has been trending less and less with the effectiveness of the NAO. Looks like this whole process is happening quicker and may mean I will be wrong about New England mid-December. But, I'm not throwing in the towel just yet. I will continue to stress caution on any -NAO solutions through the end of December. Support for a legitimate -NAO starts building as we move into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The modeling has been trending less and less with the effectiveness of the NAO. Looks like this whole process is happening quicker and may mean I will be wrong about New England mid-December. But, I'm not throwing in the towel just yet. I will continue to stress caution on any -NAO solutions through the end of December. Support for a legitimate -NAO starts building as we move into January. It's a pretty weak sauce -NAO on the ensembles. It's always had a transient look and one that could weaken...if you know what I mean, and it's more east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Scott, don't we want this system to cut well west to help establish a west based -nao? Not necessarily. Those systems only help develop a -NAO if the atmosphere is conducive for it. Not every lake cutter develops a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's a pretty weak sauce -NAO on the ensembles. It's always had a transient look and one that could weaken...if you know what I mean, and it's more east based. But, for our purposes it probably would help us here. Not so much for areas south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's a pretty weak sauce -NAO on the ensembles. It's always had a transient look and one that could weaken...if you know what I mean, and it's more east based. The La Niña pattern coming up has the look of Will's composite map that featured snowy Decembers for New England. So there is no way I'm giving up yet for you guys. Down my way, we are punting...and probably Jets Style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 There is, but CAD does not automatically mean ice. We'll need a chilly antecedent airmass...just not sure how much there is to work with, but it is early. The 06z GFS actually was decent ice for areas near the NH border. Yeah that's why I said we still have some work to do but we like the colder and colder trend and think it will continue to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's a pretty weak sauce -NAO on the ensembles. It's always had a transient look and one that could weaken...if you know what I mean, and it's more east based. This. one of those times where all the bar graphs, Line charts and numerical values are deceiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Funny way to run a torch today with 20's and 30s for lows, freezing rain in spots and a cloudy day. We really dodged a bullet overall with this mildup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Really liking the colder trends for the storm early next week. Still a ways to go, but we knew this would happen given the setup. We should see those trends continue as this week wears on I salute your persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 This. one of those times where all the bar graphs, Line charts and numerical values are deceiving The devil is in the details. Pretty chill out there this AM with the fog. Had a bit of FZFG as well. Low of 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Funny way to run a torch today with 20's and 30s for lows, freezing rain in spots and a cloudy day. We really dodged a bullet overall with this mildup Lol Did you stop taking your medication? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 damn. torch not muted. lol. Lol using Buffalo temps now,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Might seem counterintuitive but all the freezing fog and black ice actually speaks to this putrid Airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Funny way to run a torch today with 20's and 30s for lows, freezing rain in spots and a cloudy day. We really dodged a bullet overall with this mildup Yep +14-+16 in your hood yesterday, chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol using Buffalo temps now,lol What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol Did you stop taking your medication? Denial is probably one of the best known defense mechanisms, used often to describe situations in which people seem unable to face reality or admit an obvious truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The La Niña pattern coming up has the look of Will's composite map that featured snowy Decembers for New England. So there is no way I'm giving up yet for you guys. Down my way, we are punting...and probably Jets Style. Yeah I followed up with my last post saying it's still in a position to help us...just gotta keep that feature persistent on the models. It's definitely a pattern that has delivered, but Will had a good analogy saying how we are on the knife's edge..and I agree. The one thing I did like on the ensembles, was how the mass fields tries to show areas of subtle low pressure to our south. To me, that meant probably some overrunning deals or SWFE type possibitlies at the least. Of course we all know the caveats of models that far out...but just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol using Buffalo temps now,lol So ct needs +2.5 for Dec? Here we are +3.3 with another monster departure on the way, don't see any below normal days at all.........heck even saturday was only a -4 here. Looks like a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Funny way to run a torch today with 20's and 30s for lows, freezing rain in spots and a cloudy day. We really dodged a bullet overall with this mildup You probably need help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 What? OSU torch not muted at 61 was your reply I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 So ct needs +2.5 for Dec? Here we are +3.3 with another monster departure on the way, don't see any below normal days at all.........heck even saturday was only a -4 here. Looks like a lock! yes with only 26 days left in the month I would lock up the warmest year ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 yes with only 26 days left in the month I would lock up the warmest year ever. xxx has been spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'm sorry but this so called massive torch has underperformed in New England. I don't see how anyone can deny that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 OSU torch not muted at 61 was your reply I believe. And? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 HM, this msg is for you. I live around memphis tn. I really enjoy this forum. Its a good read from knowlegable mets and weather hobbysts. HM, i noticed you talking about the pattern is almost complete. For the central and eastern US to see a more sustained pattern, would we need to see the pacific ridge to shift further east and or a -nao west based to develop? Lastly, what can we look for in the pattern for that to maybe start to evolve? Thanks kevin. Almost missed this... Yes you want to see that ridge come East some from the E PAC and you want the NAO block to be much more assertive / west based than what is being modeled now. In your case, the La Niña-like pattern will certainly make it stormier and you will be closer to the baroclinic zone at times, so maybe you'll get lucky with wave timing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.