ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Euro weeklies are very bullish for a big -NAO...I'm surprised it keeps insisting on this. But we'll find out soon enough if its right. Basically the whole 2nd half of December it has a big -NAO right over Greenland and the Davis Straight. -PNA too. Classic -PNA/-NAO pattern...that historically has been very kind to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Euro weeklies are very bullish for a big -NAO...I'm surprised it keeps insisting on this. But we'll find out soon enough if its right. Basically the whole 2nd half of December it has a big -NAO right over Greenland and the Davis Straight. With a not too negative PNA that's a great snow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 stats to back that up? Ask LitchfieldTorchbations. Unfortunately it *is* more likely to have really warm departures than really cold departures over the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 With a not too negative PNA that's a great snow pattern. nothing has changed, the daily hourly angst happens every warm day in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 With a not too negative PNA that's a great snow pattern. Week 3 (Dec 18-24) looks really good for us. It has a very weak SE ridge with slightly below average heights over our heads. I'm skeptical such a nice pattern will happen, but i looks nice on the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Ask LitchfieldTorchbations. Unfortunately it *is* more likely to have really warm departures than really cold departures over the past several years. Oh sorry I thought you were talking historically because I have lived through a bunch of horrible torch winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Well there were several posters talking about widespread 60's. Now that would be worth jumping out of the emergency exit on the school bus on the highway Yes, 60s is definitely-jump-out-of-the-airplane-and-land-on-high-voltage-wires type stuff. Tickling is not 60's Good to know... Next summer when a bunch of spots "tickle" 90F we can say those calling for widespread 90s where wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Oh sorry I thought you were talking historically because I have lived through a bunch of horrible torch winters. We all lived through last winter, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Week 3 (Dec 18-24) looks really good for us. It has a very weak SE ridge with slightly below average heights over our heads. I'm skeptical such a nice pattern will happen, but i looks nice on the maps. It didn't handle this current pattern very well, so I'm a little skeptical on week 3 and 4...but we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 HM, this msg is for you. I live around memphis tn. I really enjoy this forum. Its a good read from knowlegable mets and weather hobbysts. HM, i noticed you talking about the pattern is almost complete. For the central and eastern US to see a more sustained pattern, would we need to see the pacific ridge to shift further east and or a -nao west based to develop? Lastly, what can we look for in the pattern for that to maybe start to evolve? Thanks kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 i thought subforums would be a good idea... i was wrong. the nyc forum has been gutted You can have LL. he's a quality poster with lots of good temperature insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 34/1 temp is plummeting. Wonder if Wawa spends money tonight edit - whoops - misread the dew... 33/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It didn't handle this current pattern very well, so I'm a little skeptical on week 3 and 4...but we'll find out soon enough. It seems between the euro ensembles and weeklies that ECMWF is quite bullish on a nice patter for us. Lets see if they're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Not surprising the weeklies went twds this idea that some of us have been discussing. Still cant entirely trust them but should be enough for most folks to drain water out of tubs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It seems between the euro ensembles and weeklies that ECMWF is quite bullish on a nice patter for us. Lets see if they're right. The ensmebles keep insisting on the -NAO in the long range too...but I'm not buying it as advertised. If it does materialize, then our chances for a lot fun really increase. I'm more on the riding a knife's edge for us train over the next couple weeks where we will have our shots, and hopefully we hit paydirt (ala Dec '08)....but we could easily miss out too. If we establish a solid -NAO, then we can party like its December 1970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The weenies on the bus go round and round... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 i thought subforums would be a good idea... i was wrong. the nyc forum has been gutted what do you mean? I try my hardest to avoid that subforum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The ensmebles keep insisting on the -NAO in the long range too...but I'm not buying it as advertised. If it does materialize, then our chances for a lot fun really increase. I'm more on the riding a knife's edge for us train over the next couple weeks where we will have our shots, and hopefully we hit paydirt (ala Dec '08)....but we could easily miss out too. If we establish a solid -NAO, then we can party like its December 1970. And what a sharp blade it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The ensmebles keep insisting on the -NAO in the long range too...but I'm not buying it as advertised. If it does materialize, then our chances for a lot fun really increase. I'm more on the riding a knife's edge for us train over the next couple weeks where we will have our shots, and hopefully we hit paydirt (ala Dec '08)....but we could easily miss out too. If we establish a solid -NAO, then we can party like its December 1970. The biggest hit of 1970 was this..Hopefully the weeklies are not leading us down the wrong bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Euro weeklies look pretty darn good as we head toward Xmas. That pattern would deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Not surprising the weeklies went twds this idea that some of us have been discussing. Still cant entirely trust them but should be enough for most folks to drain water out of tubs Some of us like you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Some of us like you? AMOUT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Two consecutive below normal months in the USA, cool. Warmest year ever in recorded history for Connecticut lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 AMOUT? toaster chunkin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 on the brights side, nice temps for getting the outside decorations up...much better than working with windchills in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 You can have LL. he's a quality poster with lots of good temperature insight Phil, you have been too kind lately, first Rudolph talk and then the last two days have just been.....well too much to handle. I really appreciate it, have a fantastic evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 47/42 Forecast is patchy am fog then mostly sunny with a high of 59, great news on the weeklies sure would be nice to get some snow in here for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Warmest year ever in recorded history for Connecticut lol It's 2013? Must have slept through Dec. But link please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It's 2013? Must have slept through Dec. But link please I will give you the update after November is added Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Screaming southeaster next Monday??? fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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