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Moving Through December - Changing Patterns and Changing Diapers


ChrisM

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12z Euro drives a GLC up through the lakes and seems to bring about the start of wintry weather around the 11th. That being said, the H5 pattern still leaves a lot to be desired. The GOA low seems to be fairly resilient and keeps popping back up, while the NAO block, only temporary, is displaced far to the east with lower heights over the DS.

Still 180+ hrs out, but if were going to get anything more than transient cold shots, H5 has to start improving.

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Friends harken.

At the Giants/Cowboys game in Dallas's inaugural season in the league...12/4/60. Sun shining and temperatures nearing 70. I was feeling bad about it and the progs were for endless warmth. A week later began among the most epic winter periods in my 66 years. Keep hope alive!

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I don't mean you guys and what is being discussed in this thread. I mean there are certain private mets who continue to harp on a pattern change coming mid-month or something that brings epic cold/snow to the East. I won't name their names.

But you don't get a bigger pattern shift than the next few days!

1. Alaskan/GOA Low to be beaten down and replaced with NE PAC ridge

2. AO to allow cold into Canada

3. La Nina like flow / SE ridge

This is a major shift in circulation over the next 7 days.

Oh yeah I know what you mean...totally.

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12z Euro drives a GLC up through the lakes and seems to bring about the start of wintry weather around the 11th. That being said, the H5 pattern still leaves a lot to be desired. The GOA low seems to be fairly resilient and keeps popping back up, while the NAO block, only temporary, is displaced far to the east with lower heights over the DS.

Still 180+ hrs out, but if were going to get anything more than transient cold shots, H5 has to start improving.

It looks like that cutter could help dislodge a lot of that deep cold in Central Canada and help to bring it across the central US into eastern parts although modified somewhat. Still, with decent cold forming a good gradient with warm air just off the eastern seaboard that might be able to give us a boom and hit off some cyclogenesis around the 12th or 13th.

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The only weather person has been saying big changes since nov is steve NY NJ weather . He said that before models show the weather pattern change. He is going for big changes for last part of dec for Northeast area. More later tonight . Looks good for last part of dec for snowy pattern .

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The only weather person has been saying big changes since nov is steve NY NJ weather . He said that before models show the weather pattern change. He is going for big changes for last part of dec for Northeast area. More later tonight . Looks good for last part of dec for snowy pattern .

Good to see you back Blizz

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The only weather person has been saying big changes since nov is steve NY NJ weather . He said that before models show the weather pattern change. He is going for big changes for last part of dec for Northeast area. More later tonight . Looks good for last part of dec for snowy pattern .

Ladies and gentlemen....this is the original blizz. Author of "storm cancel". He is a legend and I am 100% serious when I say this.

Good to see you back blizz! You wearing the belts?

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I was just ruminating. When I first moved to New England ... back before a lot of the users on this forum were even sperm ... I would get into weather and climate discussion with just about anyone I could, or would engage. I wanted to learn as much about New England as possible, as I had 0 prior experiences to formulate a sense of what to expect. Most of these conversations were with High School teachers, but sometimes in the coffee shoppes up around Rockport Mass with old timers.

What I find interesting is that the descriptions of summers I encountered from way back in the 1980s, really were spot on, and by and large have not changed in the last 30 years. It seems summer circa 1984 compared to any in the 1990s and throughout the 2000s, other than nit picking for dryness or minor temperature variations are pretty much the same year to year.

It's the winters that have shown the wildest variation, and in general, have flipped. Those discussions and lessons from the elders of yesteryear, "Christmas is too soon for snow around here. Got to wait until later in January, February and March." It was always the same vamp, and it seemed to work more than not - though there's always going to be an exception or two in a data set.

I think we've had a few more bigger November and Decembers since than normal, and that's sort of reversed things a bit. We really have not had a good March in years from what I recollect. If I were to go back to the mid 1980s and describe this autumn to any of the elders of the day, they'd be perfectly contented with how things are going. A fairly large segment of the users of the forum(s) have been born since then, during which time late autumns and early winters have rock-n-rolled more so than might have occurred in the previous 50 years.

It just seems perceptions and expectations must have changed, and I am wondering if 1986, 1992, 2007, 2008 ...etc, have all combined to lead people's perceptions differently. I know the lack of snow in March combined with the better production earlier on in seasons over the last 15 years, really does seem like a bit of a paradigm shift.

Be that as it may (or not), if you are bummed for lack of winter, just be glad this is not March 15!

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The only weather person has been saying big changes since nov is steve NY NJ weather . He said that before models show the weather pattern change. He is going for big changes for last part of dec for Northeast area. More later tonight . Looks good for last part of dec for snowy pattern .

With you and Ray back it is officially winter. Winter uncancel. Today's posts were more predictable than yesterday's weather is today. Nothing has changed, not sure what happened in here.
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To me, even average can be fun around here. It doesn't always have to be epic, but I think people tend to forget this. They interpret a good pattern as expecting 30" in 2 weeks, but it just doesn't always work out like that. Sometimes an almost exact pattern can produce vastly different results. You can have a very similar hemispheric pattern and have the storm track nudge not even 50 miles north, and the outcome for a city like Boston could mean 25" to less than 5" for the month.

I do think that our frequency of storms will increase starting next week. You can't get snow without storms, so that will be one thing to have on our side.

storms couldnt be more infrequent than they have been around here for the past 6 months lol

I am not worried. Ask me in a month

my Dad always told me that any miles you put on your snowmobile prior to jan 1 are all bonus miles.

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