ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Will gets to walk around downtown crossing on his lunch break. If anyone has ever been there during lunch, it's not hard to see why he wouldn't mind this mild weather...lol. Where does he work?? private sector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Im fine for now. Am holding into Dec 10 onwards being good. Just hate wasting 10 days of a winter month when we only have 90. It could be argued this winter we had 120 with Nov being wintry It's not easy to have a wintry first 10 days of December. Sure we've had the December 5ths of the world, but it doesn't bother me and shouldn't really bother you. Hell, I've wasted many a December on the coast and had a great Jan-Mar. Will knows this story, but December 2002 through Jan 2003 was probably top 5 frustrating periods of all time. Then came redemption. In a way, we have been accustomed to Decembers that are not all that common around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Looks like we've seen the warmest day. Another Elizabeth, NJ Phail in a list of many MILD TEMPS CONTINUE TUE ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MON. SIDED WITH THE COOLER MAVGFS MOS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND COOLER 2 METER TEMPS FROM EC/SREF/NAM AND GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wait I am confused isn't the NAO forecast to go negative by the middle of this month?. Is the pattern really go to change by the middle of the month?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It's not easy to have a wintry first 10 days of December. Sure we've had the December 5ths of the world, but it doesn't bother me and shouldn't really bother you. Hell, I've wasted many a December on the coast and had a great Jan-Mar. Will knows this story, but December 2002 through Jan 2003 was probably top 5 frustrating periods of all time. Then came redemption. In a way, we have been accustomed to Decembers that are not all that common around here. 3 of Boston's top 5 snowiest Decembers since 1950 have come in the past 5 years. 2007, 2008, and 2010. ORH had 3 consecutive Decembers over 20" from 2007-2009...only one other time has that happened on record...1995-1997...also not very long ago. We've been lucky in December recently. BOS went 11 consecutive Decembers under 10" of snow from 1982-1992. 8 of those 11 were less than 6". It gets a lot worse than what we've seen recently and there is history to prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 3 of Boston's top 5 snowiest Decembers since 1950 have come in the past 5 years. 2007, 2008, and 2010. ORH had 3 consecutive Decembers over 20" from 2007-2009...only one other time has that happened on record...1995-1997...also not very long ago. We've been lucky in December recently. BOS went 11 consecutive Decembers under 10" of snow from 1982-1992. 8 of those 11 were less than 6". It gets a lot worse than what we've seen recently and there is history to prove it. The problem is someone remembers an epic December and figures now it's every year. When I was growing up in NJ, just about every December from age 10-15 were epic or close to that. An impressionable boy forms opinions. The idea that November is even considered a winter month south of 200 miles north of Boston is sort of ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wait I am confused isn't the NAO forecast to go negative by the middle of this month?. Is the pattern really go to change by the middle of the month?. "Will analysis be worthwhile.....is the theatre really dead....." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 And an east based NAO won't do us much good in the east especially south of 40N without the ridge in the Pacific getting to the coast and being a little more amplfied than shown on the D+11 mean. Those thinking the negative AO and NAO are going to cause a quick switch to colder than normal in east are probably going to be disappointed. That's not to say there won't be cold shots but they probably will not be really cold. Until the NAO positive anomaly moves west, the Pacific will be the driving force. At least that is what I'm thinking. Wes, good to hear from you and you guys in the Mid Atlantic have the right idea for our region. This pattern is classic cold ENSO with a NE PAC ridge, trough in the C USA and a SE ridge in the means. Any -NAO on the CPC charts is more of an effect than a cause to the general pattern and will barely help us out down this way. I'm sick of hearing about when will the pattern change because it has folks. The pattern has changed to a cooler ENSO look and will stay that way for a bit post-torch. Great explanation. This question may not have a set answer, but when do we know/predict when the strat/trop are going to jive. For instance, during october they were not coupled as you mentioned, with the troposphere blocking running the show despite some cold strat anomalies. What tips us off that the position of the pv at 10mb/50 mb will have such a top-down effect going forward through later december? Is it the time of year, the predicted stregnthening of the vortex that tells us this? I don't know of any real indicators for when you can anticipate a proper coupling other than perhaps a coherent MJO signal going on or some type of hemisphere exchange in momentum. I suppose if you know that certain factors like "upward wave flux" will be favorable from Siberia but your vortex is very strong, you might anticipate a possible decoupling. The time of year is also a factor with the seasonal radiating cycle October-December and usually the time of PV intensification. It is very unusual to see a stratosphere like 2009 or 2010 to start off the year. Bottom-up warmings are more sudden and quickly affect the pattern, sometimes down to the day it happens and these usually are from wave 2 deals. Each type of wave will upwell over the next month and take a stab at the PV. The big question is: when will the final breakdown happen, if at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The problem is someone remembers an epic December and figures now it's every year. When I was growing up in NJ, just about every December from age 10-15 were epic or close to that. An impressionable boy forms opinions. The idea that November is even considered a winter month south of 200 miles north of Boston is sort of ludicrous. 1960-1964 had a stretch of 4 out of 5 very good Decembers for the northeast in general. So just like someone who just started getting the snow disease back then would think December should be snowy...some youngin' will probably think December should be awesome based on the run recently....hell even 2005 and 2003 had some great events. The reality is that December is a mixed month and very frequently can go stretches of 4 or 5 years in a row worth of duds. January generally doesn't go on streaks like that. More consistent month for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 when's the lawn thread getting started? Funny you should mention that, I never recall my properties being so lush this late although I did wait to put down my fertilizer as the nov 7 th snow was just about melted. I think this will be the final day of cutting but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Part of me wants to get shut out over the next 15-18 days just to see some of the weenie reactions...they could be epic. Then we get blasted on Christmas Eve, lol. Sounds a lot like 2010 actually (outside of Eastern Mass). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Those posters younger than 20-25 yrs old...thank the lucky stars that you don't remember much of the 80s or early 90s winters. You have no idea how bad of a fail this period was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Those posters younger than 20-25 yrs old...thank the lucky stars that you don't remember much of the 80s or early 90s winters. You have no idea how bad of a fail this period was. beyond awful, snow was like a minor miracle. December 85 was fun here though, I remember playing pond hockey before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 1960-1964 had a stretch of 4 out of 5 very good Decembers for the northeast in general. So just like someone who just started getting the snow disease back then would think December should be snowy...some youngin' will probably think December should be awesome based on the run recently....hell even 2005 and 2003 had some great events. The reality is that December is a mixed month and very frequently can go stretches of 4 or 5 years in a row worth of duds. January generally doesn't go on streaks like that. More consistent month for us. Not that this matters for you guys in NE but in the NYC area, since 1950 there have been 13 winters with 40" (i'll use this as an above avg winter in terms of snowfall) or greater snowfall. Only 2 of those years, 1977-1978 and 2004-2005 had little to no snowfall in December. Dec 1977 had 0.4" and Dec 2004 had 3". All the other years had a minimum of 6.9" and 7 of the remaining 11 had 10" or greater. The odds go down drastically south of SNE when December isnt great. Are either of those years (77-78/04-05) analogs for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Those posters younger than 20-25 yrs old...thank the lucky stars that you don't remember much of the 80s or early 90s winters. You have no idea how bad of a fail this period was. Yeah from Dec 1979 thru March 1993 was an absolute disaster...and of course these were my elementary and HS days....go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Those posters younger than 20-25 yrs old...thank the lucky stars that you don't remember much of the 80s or early 90s winters. You have no idea how bad of a fail this period was. it was the heat waves during the early/mid 90s that got me into wx and not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Not that this matters for you guys in NE but in the NYC area, since 1950 there have been 13 winters with 40" (i'll use this as an above avg winter in terms of snowfall) or greater snowfall. Only 2 of those years, 1977-1978 and 2004-2005 had little to no snowfall in December. Dec 1977 had 0.4" and Dec 2004 had 3". All the other years had a minimum of 6.9" and 7 of the remaining 11 had 10" or greater. The odds go down drastically south of SNE when December isnt great. Are either of those years (77-78/04-05) analogs for this year? 2004-05 has been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 What I don't understand is all of this talk about a "pattern change" getting pushed back. The pattern is changing to a more La Nina like flow and the change is underway now and complete by this weekend. Just because it's not an ice box / blizzard pattern in the East doesn't mean the pattern hasn't changed. Forecasters saying a pattern change is coming and pushing back dates will keep doing so if they are expecting a pattern WE JUST HAD to come back mid-month. Ah no... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yeah from Dec 1979 thru March 1993 was an absolute disaster...and of course these were my elementary and HS days....go figure. Well for me, it ended in December 1992, but a good chunk of SNE missed out on that winter..aside from the big March 1993 superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 it was the heat waves during the early/mid 90s that got me into wx and not snow Heat sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 What I don't understand is all of this talk about a "pattern change" getting pushed back. The pattern is changing to a more La Nina like flow and the change is underway now and complete by this weekend. Just because it's not an ice box / blizzard pattern in the East doesn't mean the pattern hasn't changed. Forecasters saying a pattern change is coming and pushing back dates will keep doing so if they are expecting a pattern WE JUST HAD to come back mid-month. Ah no... I abdicate to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 What I don't understand is all of this talk about a "pattern change" getting pushed back. The pattern is changing to a more La Nina like flow and the change is underway now and complete by this weekend. Just because it's not an ice box / blizzard pattern in the East doesn't mean the pattern hasn't changed. Forecasters saying a pattern change is coming and pushing back dates will keep doing so if they are expecting a pattern WE JUST HAD to come back mid-month. Ah no... Well you know how it goes, there is only one metric...snow. Nobody really cares about the logistics. Also, it's not really calling for a pattern change...it's more of when does it turn more favorable for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well for me, it ended in December 1992, but a good chunk of SNE missed out on that winter..aside from the big March 1993 superstorm. most of the 70's 80's and 90's December's in the NYC metro were horrid..snowless and mild. even the great snow year of 77-78.and most if any snow those decades were after Christmas..the 60's and the 2000's were much different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well you know how it goes, there is only one metric...snow. Nobody really cares about the logistics. Also, it's not really calling for a pattern change...it's more of when does it turn more favorable for this area. I don't mean you guys and what is being discussed in this thread. I mean there are certain private mets who continue to harp on a pattern change coming mid-month or something that brings epic cold/snow to the East. I won't name their names. But you don't get a bigger pattern shift than the next few days! 1. Alaskan/GOA Low to be beaten down and replaced with NE PAC ridge 2. AO to allow cold into Canada 3. La Nina like flow / SE ridge This is a major shift in circulation over the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I am not worried. Ask me in a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I am not worried. Ask me in a month On my calendar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well for me, it ended in December 1992, but a good chunk of SNE missed out on that winter..aside from the big March 1993 superstorm. in western LI we only received 2" on the back end of that December 92 storm...I do remember the FDR flooding during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I missed posts of the EC ensembles beyond d10. And the weeklies. I am gunning for the award..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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