Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 What's really screwing this entry into PNA up in these operational runs and driving a Wreck -o Edmond fit of a system up through the GL is that ...yeah, it's onset +PNA but it's west based of all things. West based PNA?! Boy I'll tell yah..clawing and scraping for any possible physical reason to ruin what you guys want - it's kinda funny actually. sometimes one could swear that some deviant modeler douche down there at NCEP has secret algorithms built into the Navier Stokes. ahahha What you guys want?? Lol As Jerry would say "pants on fire" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Maybe at the coast. But at least we won't see sloths hanging out car windows, folks tanning with faces stretched up twds sun soaking in rays, cart boys at grocery stores in short sleeved shirts with ties, and stores and restaurants with doors open at lunch like we did today and tomorrow Well the models have hinted a high to the north so alot can change for next week. Today's torch was not able to be fought but next week may be easier to suppress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Anyone else notice the Winter Moths? Came out in force yesterday at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yeah that is my guess. Weak ENSO, weak MJO at the moment. Conflicting Arctic signals. This is why people shuldn't get attached to the models...not that you ever should...but if there was ever a time not to, this is it. I expect the weather could be pretty rollercoaster-esque as well. There's going to be periods where the models bust when we have a favorable arctic high lurking...like Saturday and like on 11/7. Then there will be times where the western trough just gets too amplified and torches us like right now and potentially next week (but that one is far from set in stone). We've had it happen before, and sometimes we cash in, sometimes we don't. Dec 2008 had weak signals and rollercoaster weather, but the majoirty of SNE cashed in big time on the pattern...Dec '04 was another one but we didn't really cash in...not until Boxing Day anyway and only eastern areas got that one. Pretty much sums it up. I just don't see a reason to get all bent out of shape with everything sending out weak signals and the way things look down the road for this region. It might not be epic....but I'm not sold on a shut out. If it's a total shut out, then I have no problem if Kevin wants to hang me out to dry. For areas to the south, I can't say I feel the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 This is true. Reminds me of the storm in February 2009 (?) ECMWF and GFS had a massive historic bomb over the Great Lakes around day 6-7 ... Gradually shifted east for a few runs of New England magic ... and the wave just kept getting flatter and flatter until barely anything was left. The NAM and NGM briefly brought it back around hr48-60ish before finally giving up. Ended up with some light 1-3" inverted trough business. Yup......remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Anyone else notice the Winter Moths? Came out in force yesterday at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Anyone else notice the Winter Moths? Came out in force yesterday at home. Yes, I noticed them, harbringers of doom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Maybe at the coast. But at least we won't see sloths hanging out car windows, folks tanning with faces stretched up twds sun soaking in rays, cart boys at grocery stores in short sleeved shirts with ties, and stores and restaurants with doors open at lunch like we did today and tomorrow Oh the horror. The worst part about it is walking around seeing those happy faces and grins from ear to ear, uh, just utterly repulsive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 it is funny that we all have this inherent desire to try and get clues from mets to what this winter will do snowfall wise, yet we know there is noway to accurately predict this more than a cple-few weeks out. (unless i guess there are a ton of indicators in the toilet?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I just think for our area specifically, I don't see a reason to jump in front of a dump truck on 12/3. The idea was and still is something that will give us more chances of winter wx down the road. That should be the assumption every single year on December 3rd. Down the road, something will give us more chances of winter weather. With 4 months to go until April 3rd, it will get cold and it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17iceman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Nah, Pink Floyd, Comfortably Numb May i suggest the Staind version as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 That should be the assumption every single year on December 3rd. Down the road, something will give us more chances of winter weather. With 4 months to go until April 3rd, it will get cold and it will snow. yes i mean that is as vague as the palm reader down the street. it doesn't mean anything really, accept if i read closer it may be sorta bearish. lol. i dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Oh the horror. The worst part about it is walking around seeing those happy faces and grins from ear to ear, uh, just utterly repulsive. Lol it's awful. I was so irritated at lunch I thought about going over and knocking over the benches they were sitting on. What really makes you mad is you know they are thinking about how it's December and how nice it is for them to be sitting outside for lunch with no jackets. Then they think back to last winter and think that is how winter is going to be from now on and you know that makes them happy. Just infuriating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 We live for one more day, We will have our turn tomorrow i think before the front comes thru weds, In my avatar its only 14F here, Don't know what the f uk is up with that though Yeah I think tomorrow ends up pretty warm... like upper 40s type stuff. Never made it out of the 30s at the house during daylight hours today. Currently 38F and overcast. Snowbanks are all that's left below like 1,300ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 That should be the assumption every single year on December 3rd. Down the road, something will give us more chances of winter weather. With 4 months to go until April 3rd, it will get cold and it will snow. I mean compared to what we will have over the next week to 10 days or so. Keep the snow gun hoses away from your neck and don't cut off the sleeves of the reindeer sweaters to tie nooses. It will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 yes i mean that is as vague as the palm reader down the street. it doesn't mean anything really, accept if i read closer it may be sorta bearish. lol. i dunno haha, I was just joking about that post... I know what Coastalwx is trying to say. Its just funny because the reality is that its December 3rd. Winter cannot be like last year so of course it will get cold and wintery at some point down the road. Just gotta wait it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Lol it's awful. I was so irritated at lunch I thought about going over and knocking over the benches they were sitting on. What really makes you mad is you know they are thinking about how it's December and how nice it is for them to be sitting outside for lunch with no jackets. Then they think back to last winter and think that is how winter is going to be from now on and you know that makes them happy. Just infuriating Lol +1 on this, friends around campus were saying how they're loving the warmth. My only response was "don't get used to it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Thoughts on the 12z ECMWF at hr 192? It doesn't look half bad from my amateur perspective: from my amateur perspective the western ridge axis is too far west/off the coast. Need to be east of there (maybe in Alberta??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I mean compared to what we will have over the next week to 10 days or so. Keep the snow gun hoses away from your neck and don't cut off the sleeves of the reindeer sweaters to tie nooses. It will be ok. lol. I want a reindeer sweater now. I'll have to get all dressed up and give Jayhawk a jpeg to photoshop with. I knew what you meant... the pattern going forward for the next 1-2 weeks doesn't look all that encouraging, but down the road I'm sure something will shift and we'll all get chances. Now, if we get to Christmas and we are still more or less in the same situation... then all bets are off, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 yes i mean that is as vague as the palm reader down the street. it doesn't mean anything really, accept if i read closer it may be sorta bearish. lol. i dunno The longer you are on the boards, the more you should begin to realize that trying to predict seasonal snowfall in New England is about as difficult as anywhere on the east coast. There is virtually dead even ENSO splits on our snowfall...and our snowfall is a bit less dependent on the AO than further south as well, though we still definitely love a -AO. There are too many years where we buck the trend of the Mid-Atlantic to make it as "easy "here. 2007-2008, people were hanging themselves by December 15th...even JB had cancelled winter south of here with his famous Clipper/Flipper poem a couple weeks earlier. But New England went on to have a very good winter (and down right epic in NNE)...save for the extreme southern areas closer to the south coast. 2009-2010, everyone was going monstrous with the big -AO/NAO signals and the tropics looking epic and the good El Nino pattern setting up....we ended up with an average to terrible winter depending on where you were around here while south of us was epic. Its just not easy to predict snow on a seasonal level here. Not that it is easy anywhere, but its even more difficult here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 march 1,2 2009? February 1-2, 2009. March 1-2 was a legit mediocre Miller A nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 haha, I was just joking about that post... I know what Coastalwx is trying to say. Its just funny because the reality is that its December 3rd. Winter cannot be like last year so of course it will get cold and wintery at some point down the road. Just gotta wait it out. It means that on 12/3, weenies are being silly with getting all bent out of shape. Lets say this again...climo is not very favorable on 12/3. Most of us are barely supposed to have an inch of snow right now. The point is that I think we can squeeze out a few events from after next week through Christmas. It might not be all snow..it might not be epic, but I don't see why we should get shut out through the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Lol it's awful. I was so irritated at lunch I thought about going over and knocking over the benches they were sitting on. What really makes you mad is you know they are thinking about how it's December and how nice it is for them to be sitting outside for lunch with no jackets. Then they think back to last winter and think that is how winter is going to be from now on and you know that makes them happy. Just infuriating My thoughts exactly. But it just makes that victory even sweeter when we do turn cold/snowy, they're all caught off guard in their short shorts and sunscreen, and then they complain 4 times as loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Few more days of this the air conditioner is going back in my office window. 76 in here now even with windows open. No breeze. Miserable. What's the consensus now are we going to see winter again before xmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It means that on 12/3, weenies are being silly with getting all bent out of shape. Lets say this again...climo is not very favorable on 12/3. Most of us are barely supposed to have an inch of snow right now. The point is that I think we can squeeze out a few events from after next week through Christmas. It might not be all snow..it might not be epic, but I don't see why we should get shut out through the month. Wow are you setting the bar lower than median expectations. I expected winter to come in with a snow squall on a frontal passage and for tongues to be frozen to railings within minutes as we plunge into a Day after Tomorrow type outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The longer you are on the boards, the more you should begin to realize that trying to predict seasonal snowfall in New England is about as difficult as anywhere on the east coast. There is virtually dead even ENSO splits on our snowfall...and our snowfall is a bit less dependent on the AO than further south as well, though we still definitely love a -AO. There are too many years where we buck the trend of the Mid-Atlantic to make it as "easy "here. 2007-2008, people were hanging themselves by December 15th...even JB had cancelled winter south of here with his famous Clipper/Flipper poem a couple weeks earlier. But New England went on to have a very good winter (and down right epic in NNE)...save for the extreme southern areas closer to the south coast. 2009-2010, everyone was going monstrous with the big -AO/NAO signals and the tropics looking epic and the good El Nino pattern setting up....we ended up with an average to terrible winter depending on where you were around here while south of us was epic. Its just not easy to predict snow on a seasonal level here. Not that it is easy anywhere, but its even more difficult here. Yeah it's not like down in the MA where you can see the typical; features like -NAO, +PNA and go for epic, or -PNA, +NAO and know your screwed. We tend to pull stuff out of our azzes sometimes...and the pattern coming up is one that could promote that. That's how I'm looking at it. 200NM will mean everything with this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Ya will I knowam I was just having fun w the post, playin off powder freak, scott is one of the best here, so I love the scf model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wait til tomorrow when xxx winter is back on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Not sure why people expect the pattern to be better the 2nd half of the month just because the first half will be awful. Did no one learn the lesson from last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Ya will I knowam I was just having fun w the post, playin off powder freak, scott is one of the best here, so I love the scf model I probably wasn't clear anyways...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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