ma blizzard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 This is true. Reminds me of the storm in February 2009 (?) ECMWF and GFS had a massive historic bomb over the Great Lakes around day 6-7 ... Gradually shifted east for a few runs of New England magic ... and the wave just kept getting flatter and flatter until barely anything was left. The NAM and NGM briefly brought it back around hr48-60ish before finally giving up. Ended up with some light 1-3" inverted trough business. march 1,2 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 march 1,2 2009? Nov. 27 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yeah that appears to be happening with the storm for early next week. A cutter west of Chi lol If you want to set up a potential west based nao down the road you better be wishing it cuts up Green Bay.......your little icy ice event would only delay your much heralded pattern change....I have no idea whatsoever why you would not want this thing to cut and cut hard, bleed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I just think for our area specifically, I don't see a reason to jump in front of a dump truck on 12/3. The idea was and still is something that will give us more chances of winter wx down the road. It does not refer to an epic stretch or anything like that...so set the bar to more reasonable expectations. Of course it doesn't rule out an awesome 10 day stretch...but it's impossible to determine that right now. Perhaps the month does not work out all that well...we simply don't know...but I think there is reason for opportunities after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Textbook case on why EPO is more important than NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 This is true. Reminds me of the storm in February 2009 (?) ECMWF and GFS had a massive historic bomb over the Great Lakes around day 6-7 ... Gradually shifted east for a few runs of New England magic ... and the wave just kept getting flatter and flatter until barely anything was left. The NAM and NGM briefly brought it back around hr48-60ish before finally giving up. Ended up with some light 1-3" inverted trough business. I remember this. Yeah, it was a cutter until maybe D6, then everyone got excited when it shifted east, just for it to be flattened and I think someone picked up an inch or 2. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Textbook case on why EPO is more important than NAO. Any recent thoughts, I know you were gung ho, but winter is now here and things do not look so great over the next couple weeks. What is your gut telling you as we go forward? By the way it looks like the CFS might have done a nice job with December while the Euro weeklies have been puking on themselves as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 This is true. Reminds me of the storm in February 2009 (?) ECMWF and GFS had a massive historic bomb over the Great Lakes around day 6-7 ... Gradually shifted east for a few runs of New England magic ... and the wave just kept getting flatter and flatter until barely anything was left. The NAM and NGM briefly brought it back around hr48-60ish before finally giving up. Ended up with some light 1-3" inverted trough business. that thing trended from epic ohio valley bomb to nothing in 72 hrs...then there was a saturday night blip run of the gfs and nam within the 2-4 day range that brought a coastal blizzard...people bugged out, and it dissapeared on the 6z runs... ended up with a surprise 4-7 inches in central jersey with the inverted trough...and that was the fluke band that got like 10" to philly too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 we should have a meltdown index for the region. if the gradient shows more clues for wintry wx to be confined to CNE/NNE or north , we should have quite a few by 12/20. Might get some good indicators of who those may be by even the end of today, It certainly looks like its heading that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Might get some good indicators of who those may be by even the end of today, It certainly looks like its heading that way I love your location. :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 as long as saddleback and stowe don't both meltaway, i will be free from meltdowns. i really just wanna ski and i will travel to the snow. sometimes stowe can torch but in an east based NAO i think saddleback/sugarloaf would be able to sustain. The pattern looks pretty damn crappy thru mid month, i'm not sure who would argue with that. a few days ago people were saying either side of 12/10 could get more wintery, now that's push'd back a bit for SNE (at least) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Any recent thoughts, I know you were gung ho, but winter is now here and things do not look so great over the next couple weeks. What is your gut telling you as we go forward? By the way it looks like the CFS might have done a nice job with December while the Euro weeklies have been puking on themselves as of late. I'm pretty bullish Joe. Remember we've had some fabulous winters that shat all over themselves until like 12/20-30 or even later. I think CFS deserves praise and they also are targetting (as of the latest) late this monnth and January much colder and February downright boreal. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 A PV retrograding NW from Hudson Bay is definitely what we don't want to see. That is something that would eventually torch everyone...doesn't matter how far north you are in the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm pretty bullish Joe. Remember we've had some fabulous winters that shat all over themselves until like 12/20-30 or even later. I think CFS deserves praise and they also are targetting (as of the latest) late this monnth and January much colder and February downright boreal. We'll see. Absolutely, this December has a 2010 feel to it, I doubt the analogs match up or anything like that, but that was a painful month with two horrific cutters, a near miss just before xmas and finally rewarded on boxing day. Hope it turns out well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm pretty bullish Joe. Remember we've had some fabulous winters that shat all over themselves until like 12/20-30 or even later. I think CFS deserves praise and they also are targetting (as of the latest) late this monnth and January much colder and February downright boreal. We'll see. CFS has been flip-flopping all over the place...look at week 3/4: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20121202.NAsfcT.gif Now one day earlier week 3 and 4: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20121201.NAsfcT.gif Pretty easy to verify when it calls for both solutions. Same on its monthly forecasts...it showed a pretty cold December about a month ago. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201211/imagesInd2/usT2mMonInd2.gif All the LR guidance has been very inconsistent. The same CFS called for both a torch November at one point and then a cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 CFS has been flip-flopping all over the place...look at week 3/4: http://origin.cpc.nc...1202.NAsfcT.gif Now one day earlier week 3 and 4: http://origin.cpc.nc...1201.NAsfcT.gif Pretty easy to verify when it calls for both solutions. Same on its monthly forecasts...it showed a pretty cold December about a month ago. http://www.cpc.ncep....sT2mMonInd2.gif All the LR guidance has been very inconsistent. The same CFS called for both a torch November at one point and then a cold one. Are the long range models inconsistent due to weak signals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well we're just about thru day 1 of the torch. Thank goodness for short days. 1 more tomorrow and that's it . Good bye and good riddance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well we're just about thru day 1 of the torch. Thank goodness for short days. 1 more tomorrow and that's it . Good bye and good riddance Reply to tweet from NWS Taunton that today's weather is not "delightful" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Awful start to winter up here in Lake Effect land. Only 3" on the season and the last remnants of snowpack have officially melted away. They still have snow up near Boonville on the east side of Ontario, but then again, theres always snow there. Low 50's today, maybe we get the ground white again on Wednesday, but nothing to get excited over. I wonder what SYR and BUF have this year, because they are both probably running way below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well we're just about thru day 1 of the torch. Thank goodness for short days. 1 more tomorrow and that's it . Good bye and good riddance Until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 What's really screwing this entry into PNA up in these operational runs and driving a Wreck -o Edmond fit of a system up through the GL is that ...yeah, it's onset +PNA but it's west based of all things. West based PNA?! Boy I'll tell yah..clawing and scraping for any possible physical reason to ruin what you guys want - it's kinda funny actually. sometimes one could swear that some deviant modeler douche down there at NCEP has secret algorithms built into the Navier Stokes. ahahha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well we're just about thru day 1 of the torch. Thank goodness for short days. 1 more tomorrow and that's it . Good bye and good riddance till next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 MEX is a bloodbath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Until Friday. Nah mets have been saying today and tomorrow are warmest. I can deal with 40's and 20's at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I love your location. :lol: I am sure some don't.....lol, But oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Are the long range models inconsistent due to weak signals? Yeah that is my guess. Weak ENSO, weak MJO at the moment. Conflicting Arctic signals. This is why people shuldn't get attached to the models...not that you ever should...but if there was ever a time not to, this is it. I expect the weather could be pretty rollercoaster-esque as well. There's going to be periods where the models bust when we have a favorable arctic high lurking...like Saturday and like on 11/7. Then there will be times where the western trough just gets too amplified and torches us like right now and potentially next week (but that one is far from set in stone). We've had it happen before, and sometimes we cash in, sometimes we don't. Dec 2008 had weak signals and rollercoaster weather, but the majoirty of SNE cashed in big time on the pattern...Dec '04 was another one but we didn't really cash in...not until Boxing Day anyway and only eastern areas got that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Nah mets have been saying today and tomorrow are warmest. I can deal with 40's and 20's at night. I think we are upper 40s Friday through the weekend. Time to rest until mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Awful start to winter up here in Lake Effect land. Only 3" on the season and the last remnants of snowpack have officially melted away. They still have snow up near Boonville on the east side of Ontario, but then again, theres always snow there. Low 50's today, maybe we get the ground white again on Wednesday, but nothing to get excited over. I wonder what SYR and BUF have this year, because they are both probably running way below normal. BUF has 2.6" I believe. I got a 6.6" about 8 miles S of there in West Seneca. Not sure about 'cuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well Will is right. There are several posts in the other thread from myself and others stating that it was around 12/10 when we would start to see changes in the pattern to allow more cold into the CONUS and thus begin the transition. I know I specifically said that is does not mean an abrupt change to cold and snow here locally on that date. I even said it may take several days after that, but none of us could possibly say exactly when. I don't think anything has changed regarding that time. I can't help it, if people think it means the onslaught of 3' snowpack..it simply means a change to a pattern that allows for more wintry chances. Perhaps your damaging ice storm trends colder next week. But...but...but you promised I would get a 2' blizzard and sub-zero temps... Ah, well... not much you can do but go out and rest the elbow on the sill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I think we are upper 40s Friday through the weekend. Time to rest until mid month. Maybe at the coast. But at least we won't see sloths hanging out car windows, folks tanning with faces stretched up twds sun soaking in rays, cart boys at grocery stores in short sleeved shirts with ties, and stores and restaurants with doors open at lunch like we did today and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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