Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Well Will is right. There are several posts in the other thread from myself and others stating that it was around 12/10 when we would start to see changes in the pattern to allow more cold into the CONUS and thus begin the transition. I know I specifically said that is does not mean an abrupt change to cold and snow here locally on that date. I even said it may take several days after that, but none of us could possibly say exactly when. I don't think anything has changed regarding that time. I can't help it, if people think it means the onslaught of 3' snowpack..it simply means a change to a pattern that allows for more wintry chances. Perhaps your damaging ice storm trends colder next week. Meltdown cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Kevin was expecting a pattern change on 12/5. This must be disappointing for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Kevin was expecting a pattern change on 12/5. This must be disappointing for him. what happened to 11/26? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Down in the Mid Atlantic, I wouldn't rule out a virtual December punt altogether. The NA mountain torque spike is happening now...the wave 2 is happening now... the MJO pulse through the IO is happening now... the low sun is happening now... All of these things can only change for the worse the deeper we move into December right? I have no idea..lol. I agree about the MA, but I'm still interesting up here because it's pretty close to a decent pattern here in the longer range. I'm still curious to your last post....why do you think these perturbations to the vortex, screwed the -NAO? Because it pushed the vortex towards Greenland? At the same time, I thought maybe it helped with an Aleutian ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Too much model thinking skin deep around here - the runs don't show it, must be time to flame December. Okay - good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Kevin was expecting a pattern change on 12/5 11/25. This must be disappointing for him. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I check in on this board once a day at lunch and it has become comical how every 24 hours the outlook for the next month, and the attitudes on this board can swing from one end of the spectrum to the other. Gotta start archiving these fluctuations. December Torch - Muted Torch - First Half December Punt - Entire Month Punt - Sneaky cold - seasonable temps - December Torch...That is the summary of the last week or so...I think that is were we stand today...see you at lunch tomorrow. Same time... same place...completely different forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Too much model thinking skin deep around here - the runs don't show it, must be time to flame December. Okay - good luck with that. Yeah...relying on the LR modeling right now is pretty ugly...they have been changing so much from run to run...literally run to run...one run of ensembles looks great and then the next run can look pretty bad. The lack of a dominant factor driving the pattern is likely the reason for such model uncertainty. The AO being ultra negative will help us I think though. How that actually manifests itself...I couldn't say. My best educated guess is the cold air from western Canada bleeds ESE as it very often does with -AO but lack of good -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Too much model thinking skin deep around here - the runs don't show it, must be time to flame December. Okay - good luck with that. It's more than that John. The indices are not turning out as favorable either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 61F peak temp thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 LOL...really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Down in the Mid Atlantic, I wouldn't rule out a virtual December punt altogether. The NA mountain torque spike is happening now...the wave 2 is happening now... the MJO pulse through the IO is happening now... the low sun is happening now... All of these things can only change for the worse the deeper we move into December right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Too much model thinking skin deep around here - the runs don't show it, must be time to flame December. Okay - good luck with that. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It's more than that John. The indices are not turning out as favorable either. Just reviewed them - they are not appreciably different to alter my thinking. The PNA is still rising, and the NAO actually now looks better. Give it time folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Kevin was expecting a pattern change on 12/5. This must be disappointing for him. Don't you mean 11/25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Kevin was expecting a pattern change on 12/5. This must be disappointing for him. I thought it was epic winter starting November 25, not December 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm having lunch outside in the sun now, short sleeve shirt (away from breeze) I forgot it was met winter for a moment. Nne looks to do fine, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I have no idea..lol. I agree about the MA, but I'm still interesting up here because it's pretty close to a decent pattern here in the longer range. I'm still curious to your last post....why do you think these perturbations to the vortex, screwed the -NAO? Because it pushed the vortex towards Greenland? At the same time, I thought maybe it helped with an Aleutian ridge. This is what happened... Upward flux originally occurred in eastern Europe/western Siberia which is classic wave 2 origin. Despite the warm, -EPO/WPO pattern in the northern Pacific, the stratospheric air here was cold and so was the vortex. Since we knew the troposphere / stratosphere were not jiving yet, the warm anomalies were safe and the forcing from the troposphere/ocean would sustain them, despite the cold stratosphere aloft. The upward flux from eastern Europe in combination with the -QBO and lower solar periods allowed for the amplification to upwell, forcing a squeeze play from North America into eastern Siberia. Now that tropospheric cold has carved out over Siberia, the stratosphere is beginning to warm here from the upwelling flux and is combining with the tropospheric -WPO wave anomaly to form a huge wave 1. This is NOT a classic wave 1 where an Aleutian Low is responsible but it doesn't matter since we have the wave 1 coming (the low is displaced from usual location). Because the strato-vortex itself was so cold and strong and the wave 2 was only predicted to be modest, we knew the vortex would stay in tact. It's positioning would send it back to the North Atlantic because of the warmings from Asia, keeping it from moving there. This whole thing happened quickly and will force the PV back to Greenland. This is why I'm warning of models with west based -NAO patterns etc. I don't think this will happen until that PV is destroyed/out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Kevin was expecting a pattern change on 12/5. This must be disappointing for him. he was also expecting 1-3" over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Just throwing this out there... What storm was it that at D9 was a GL stem winder S gale for us, then, it was a coastal blizzard, and what happened.... flat wave with paltry overrunning. Guys - relax! you're acting like a heroine addict that's paranoid about their next fix - haha. I know what mean though - it would be nice for entertainment's sake if you had some eye candy. Agreed. But you just gotta be stronger and more insightful than that, and you can derive almost the same value. What I mean is, the NAO is also diving, and there is a H. A. signal from that, too, not just the PNA rise - albeit not quite as impressively as 2 night ago at CPC. That's fine, as Will pointed out, the ensemble means have been a bit flippy floppy as of late, and that could effect the PNA calculation. To me I'm still thinking an icing scenario could be on the table to enter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Don't worry VT, you will torch tonight and tomorrow. Never fear. LOL...I'm always afraid. Hold me. Sneaky sneaky mild down today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I check in on this board once a day at lunch and it has become comical how every 24 hours the outlook for the next month, and the attitudes on this board can swing from one end of the spectrum to the other. Gotta start archiving these fluctuations. December Torch - Muted Torch - First Half December Punt - Entire Month Punt - Sneaky cold - seasonable temps - December Torch...That is the summary of the last week or so...I think that is were we stand today...see you at lunch tomorrow. Same time... same place...completely different forecasts! But that's the thing, I think most forecasts haven't changed. You have to weed through all the emotional weenie posts, which I think cause more confusion and result in some of these statements and accusations of flip-flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 At least if the 12z euro brings the gradient to quebec we can prob get maine jayhawk to photoshop a pic of pf hanging from the tree tops to lighten the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 fat lady For the Mid Atlantic, I think we have to wait for something appreciable; however, you can always get sneaky changeover setups with patterns like these with proper high positioning. My negative tone shouldn't discourage you northern folk who can do well in La Niña patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 lol, Who cares Hey now fellow NNE'er ...the moose care....oh wait most of them are in NH and ME. So yeah you're right, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 It's really ashame the wave 2 to wave 1 configuration in the stratosphere went down and is going down like it is because I think it is the thing that ultimately ruined the NAO. Of course, the month just started so we have a long way to go. Isotherm, I meant "ineffective NAO" as in the charts may register negative and there may be a thumb ridge into the E / E-C regions but it does very little to combat the SE ridge / RNA pattern outside of maybe the Upper Midwest-New England corridor. I seem to recall last year at some point the NAO registered negative, but that was because everywhere downstream of the Alaskan vortex, from california to greenland, had above normal heights. What a winter. The end of the 12z gfs ensembles have a healthy -NAO developing, but I agree with the skepticism given the predicted vortex state/position at that point. It is curious to me that the gfs suite would even develop this -NAO block in the long range despite really stregnthening the vortex in that vicinity. I mean, it has your "tornado" up there big time by days 10-15. Closer inspection of the height departures though shows the "tornado" swinging towards the Asian side of the pole and a +height anomaly developing from 50mb to 10mb in Greenland over that time frame... This is of course in fantasy land, but had support from the ensembles...not sure what to make of that I see a few people here are hopeful that the cold will settle into the east by the latter stages of Dec, I'm not sure though. I would think the trend will be towards a relaxation of the -AO (not that its helping us now anyway) /a trend towards positive with the strat gathering itself after these waves. The -PDO and pacific pattern that appears to be very assertive early on this winter would probably leave the east really torching without any AO help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Hey Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 can only see mileage-not temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 he was also expecting 1-3" over the weekend It's been a rough period. Just a horrible streak of forecasts. I forgot about the 11/25 pattern change. I'm on metro north near joes hood in shorts and a t shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 can only see mileage-not temp 64F. -_-III Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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