CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Don't worry VT, you will torch tonight and tomorrow. Never fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yeah a few of us were thinking that earlier today. While others said it was impossible..Esp. With NAO going neg and a cold HP in E Canada. all you have to do is go back to last Tuesday snow event from Jersey north and the snow / ice we had this weekend. You get a high up there, and neggy NAO,you likely won't cut a storm enjoy your hour of sleet sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Don't worry VT, you will torch tonight and tomorrow. Never fear. lol, Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Pure bliss. I love muted torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Wow...you're off to a slow start. You are someone who is due for a bad year lol What did you call last year up here? and 09-10? We are due for a good year... As are you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 What did you call last year up here? and 09-10? We are due for a good year... As are you. I mean relative to other areas of NE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Tickling 60F right now at TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 62 here under mostly clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 My temperature here in Central NH reached its high at 6am. Even with increasing sunshine past couple of hours the temp is slowly coasting down. High was 45.6F early this AM but now 43.9F at noon Yeah high of 48.5F at 6:25am and down to 46.2F at 12:30pm. Still pretty torchy as we should be barely reaching 39-40F on 12/3, but not too bad. Feels like a torch day with windy conditions and all the snow gone. Hopefully 12/9-12/10 plays out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Just infuriating sights and sounds at lunch today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I wouldn't rule out a virtual first half December punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I wouldn't rule out a virtual first half December punt. this place is gonna get ugly...the weenies are very restless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Just infuriating sights and sounds at lunch today Tan the bald head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I wouldn't rule out a virtual first half December punt. Man have you flip flopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I wouldn't rule out a virtual first half December punt. channel 4 in hartford reports a bald man from tolland found hanging from his snowflake trousers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Man have you flip flopped scotterromney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Man have you flip flopped Exactly how? By saying it's possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Man have you flip flopped Not really...the time period has been post-10th...if that 12/12 system doesn't work out, then its a virtual punt of the first half of December...we've done this many times in the past...most recently 2010. 2008 too. Still liking the overall pattern look though leading toward Christmas. Hopefully we cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Definitely torchy out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 BUF NWS put out a detailed long-range discussion today. Seems to echo a good deal of what the mets have been posting here recently. LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD... AS MENTIONED IN THE OPENING PARAGRAPH TO THIS LONG TERM SECTION... THERE IS A SUGGESTION BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT SIGNIFICANT RIDGING MAY SET UP OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF THIS MONTH. THE ECMWF AND A MAJORITY OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WOULD MEAN AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SEASONABLY COLD AIR TO WORK SOUTH FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...WHERE COLD AIR SHOULD BE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE SOLUTION BEING PORTRAYED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE PACKAGES WOULD FAVOR A BROAD BASED TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WITH THE COLDER AIR TAKING MORE A MORE CIRCUITOUS ROUTE ACROSS THE MID WEST BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS ROUTE WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AREA. THE AIRMASS WOULD NOT BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD...BUT ALL THAT WOULD BE NEEDED IS FOR H85 TEMPS TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF -8C OR LOWER. IN TERMS OF THE REAL COLD AIR...THERE HAVE BEEN TWO MAIN CORES OF ARCTIC AIR THE PAST TWO WEEKS WITH ONE OVER SIBERIA AND THE OTHER OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGING OVER SIBERIA THIS WEEK WILL DISPERSE/DISPLACE THE AIRMASS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE POLE...WHILE THE ARCTIC AIR ON THIS SIDE OF THE POLE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT. WHILE THIS COLD AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT DOWN TO THE LOWER 48 ANYTIME SOON...IT IS WORTH NOTING. ALSO WORTH MENTIONING IS THAT THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL JET THAT CROSSED NORTH AMERICA AND NEARLY ENCIRCLED THE GLOBE (AT ROUGHLY 40-50N) AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR IS IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE THIS FALL. THE MERIDIONAL FLOW AT H7 IS MORE ANOMALOUS IN NATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR BLOCKING AND A HIGHER CHANCE FOR COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE ICELANDIC LOW HAS BEEN WEAKER THIS FALL AND HAS ACTUALLY GIVEN WAY TO RIDGING SEVERAL TIMES. TO SUMMARIZE...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...A STRETCH OF SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL SET UP DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF DECEMBER. NO ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 i'd think 12/10 period could certainly swing colder and that scooter is just stating what's possible. HM mentioned punting nearly the whole month of december as a possibility a week ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 GEFS d10. Change anomalies from 0Z. Trend an abject dead ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Exactly how? By saying it's possible? Close to meltdown mode with this wx today/ tomorrow... No comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 warm pattern straight through day 15 on the gfes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Man have you flip flopped Know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 i'd think 12/10 period could certainly swing colder and that scooter is just stating what's possible. HM mentioned punting nearly the whole month of december as a possibility a week ago It's really ashame the wave 2 to wave 1 configuration in the stratosphere went down and is going down like it is because I think it is the thing that ultimately ruined the NAO. Of course, the month just started so we have a long way to go. Isotherm, I meant "ineffective NAO" as in the charts may register negative and there may be a thumb ridge into the E / E-C regions but it does very little to combat the SE ridge / RNA pattern outside of maybe the Upper Midwest-New England corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 the KFS is re-calibrating. the 12z run has been cxl'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I wouldn't rule out a virtual first half December punt. Down in the Mid Atlantic, I wouldn't rule out a virtual December punt altogether. The NA mountain torque spike is happening now...the wave 2 is happening now... the MJO pulse through the IO is happening now... the low sun is happening now... All of these things can only change for the worse the deeper we move into December right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 early season snow FTL like last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Close to meltdown mode with this wx today/ tomorrow... No comment Well Will is right. There are several posts in the other thread from myself and others stating that it was around 12/10 when we would start to see changes in the pattern to allow more cold into the CONUS and thus begin the transition. I know I specifically said that is does not mean an abrupt change to cold and snow here locally on that date. I even said it may take several days after that, but none of us could possibly say exactly when. I don't think anything has changed regarding that time. I can't help it, if people think it means the onslaught of 3' snowpack..it simply means a change to a pattern that allows for more wintry chances. Perhaps your damaging ice storm trends colder next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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