andyhb Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Lol...and there's the verbatim switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 And here we go, phasing trying to occu by 162hr with wave dropping southeast. Good snows across eastern KS back through AMA. 1008 sfc low from southern AR to TX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Phased and going negative tilt at 168hr. Sfc low deepened rapidly to 1000mb in northern AR now. Snow band from sw KS to nrn MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Wowza. 992mb over STL. 850mb 0 deg isotherm through Chicago. Heavy snow snow across eastern MO, northern MO into southern/southeast IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Wowza. 992mb over STL. 850mb 0 deg isotherm through Chicago. Heavy snow snow across eastern MO, northern MO into southern/southeast IA. This run could be favorable for Chicago, there is a blocking high to the North of MI so the low will be sliding ENE vs NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 988mb over southern tip of Lake Michigan. Cycloneville special, gets hammered. 850mb 0 deg isotherm hugging the western shore of Lake Michigan near Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 988mb over southern tip of Lake Michigan. Cycloneville special, gets hammered. 850mb 0 deg isotherm hugging the western shore of Lake Michigan near Chicago. Not to mention the severe weather on the warm sector side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 WI and N.IL west of Chicago back to E.IA/N.MO gets a good thumping on this euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Not to mention the severe weather on the warm sector side. ehh I'm in winter mode. Didn't even cross my mind to be honest. Probably an 8-12" band in the heaviest axis on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 WI and N.IL west of Chicago back to E.IA/N.MO gets a good thumping on this euro run. It sounds like we would get good snow here too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Haha, good agreement between the GFS and Euro in many respects, but of course it's still a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The Euro phase on this run reminded me of the GHD phase. Everything had to be perfect to get that thing to bomb on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It sounds like we would get good snow here too? Could be some mixing there but that is the northern extent on this side of the Lake. From about your location on north is all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The Euro phase on this run reminded me of the GHD phase. Everything had to be perfect to get that thing to bomb on this run. Sure did...If that thing slows down, and we get some good cold air in place, the storm will most likely move further south/east, or similar to the GHDB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 yikes this run of the Euro has got my attention. The energy will come out in pieces, this weekend will see some decent snows at MSP and the surrounding area. But a major portion of the energy will come out around Monday or Tuesday and it will wind up like a top. If, and this is a big if, should it verify area's from Davenport to Chi Town could see a large snowstorm while areas south of there could see a major severe weather outbreak. I debated about bolding major severe outbreak, but decided against it. Needless to say us weather weenies will have a fun time with this one. As a second thought, as we get closer we may want to pay close attention to what the pro mets are saying. Having said that, if this run of the Euro does indeed verify, and that is a big question mark now, could this thread go into storm mode??? Way to early I know, but would a system like this pose that kind of response here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Sure did...If that thing slows down, and we get some good cold air in place, the storm will most likely move further south/east, or similar to the GHDB. Thus keep a eye on what that system out ahead of it does.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It sucks this potential storm is still a week away but hard not to get excited given the fact that we didn't see anything like this all last winter. Still a lot of runs to get through and the further southwest the wave got on tonights runs scares me some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Some more big monsters on the 0z GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Some more big monsters on the 0z GFS ensembles. Are you using E-wall or Allan's site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I like using Allan's site as it shows snowfall for each of the ensemble members, although if I could make a suggestion on Allen's site, I sure wished that each of the ensemble members would show snowfall for the entire CONUS like the operational map shows in the upper left hand corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Thus keep a eye on what that system out ahead of it does.. Yup, that too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Spending early mornings with the Euro a week ahead of a storm that may not even end up panning out is the pits of desperation for me. I like weather, but a week out, both the GFS and Euro gave decent solutions, but it's still hard to feel good. It's not good to be in the bullseye a week out anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 It sucks this potential storm is still a week away but hard not to get excited given the fact that we didn't see anything like this all last winter. Still a lot of runs to get through and the further southwest the wave got on tonights runs scares me some. I haven't seen the 0z ensemble yet, but comparing the 12/4 0z operational to the 12/03 18z ensemble members of the GFS the 12/04 0z operational doesn't make much sense to me, as only one member of the 18z ensemble agreed with the 12/04 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 The fact that I'm not really in the bullseye is a good thing. Because the chances of these solutions verifying are statistically slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Everyone from north of a ICT-Macomb-Chi south burbs-Saginaw, MI line gets 6" with this run. Narrow 12" band from DVN-MSN-Traverse City, MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 6z GFS completely loses the 3rd "main" storm. Looks like it's putting more emphasis on the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Figures... Euro jumps in bed with the GFS and the 06z gfs doesn't put out. If the models ever get so good they can lock in a storm outcome this far out what fun would this sick addiction be? Bring on 12z t-snow12.. thanks much for quoting my post earlier last evening and explaining what I need to be focusing on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Figures... Euro jumps in bed with the GFS and the 06z gfs doesn't put out. If the models ever get so good they can lock in a storm outcome this far out what fun would this sick addiction be? Bring on 12z t-snow12.. thanks much for quoting my post earlier last evening and explaining what I need to be focusing on. Go let your weenie hang out with the 6z DGEX. As far as the 6z GFS goes, I'm thinking it's a blip. Ensembles will be out in 10 minutes. If I had to guess, the vast majority will show continuity with the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Guess not. Not much clarity here: P008 has a super clipper dropping in from the NW for god's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 hehe, ssc.. can always find one model to satisfy our desires. yeah hopefully and probably just a blip.. but in the back of my mind I can't help but to think the least desirable outcome will happen as has been the weather here mostly since the GHD blizz. that's just silly thinking though. I need to get back to bed for and hr or two.. stayed up way to late last night (3:00am) because of this sickness. I got woke up at 4:30 and jumped out of bed faster than I did as a kid on Christmas morning and went straight for my next model fix... Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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