Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Wow, St. Louis gets owned by snow on that run! @Bowme - same here. Would be great to get the EURO onboard on the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Wow Here's what we know: There will be a storm. +/- 200 miles from the red line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Here's what we know: There will be a storm. +/- 200 miles from the red line. It would have been easier just to say there could be a storm somewhere in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I have my eye on this one. I will be traveling home on Tuesday 12/11. (For Christmas break) The trip takes me from Marion, IN to Seymour, IN. I will be traveling 69, 465, and 65. Sounds like I might need to prepare for a rough go of it...go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I like the map...especially when I am right in th middle of it lol It would have been easier just to say there could be a storm somewhere in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 12z SPC MARS analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I hope people are not taking these maps 2 seriously...or else they will be disappointed later on lol..We should know by now that the models tend to play these games with us....and I'm glad we have not entered the "winter hair loss pattern", or have we? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Wow Well at least we know what solution is not going to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I like the map...especially when I am right in th middle of it lol Yeah... Even if it is to early, I like the post/map if the red line is a first call on where he thinks the low tracks with an extent cone included.. Us weenies should be able to have a little fun this far out even if it grates on some.. Beats reading a persons 1st post in the thread and it being on how it would be easier for the OP to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The 18z GFS Ensembles don't look quite as good as 12z. It is nitpicking, and possibly a result of 18z runs being a tad less reliable, but it is still worth noting. A number of them look like a relatively boring frontal passage, at least around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 I hope people are not taking these maps 2 seriously...or else they will be disappointed later on lol..We should know by now that the models tend to play these games with us....and I'm glad we have not entered the "winter hair loss pattern", or have we? LOL I became bald after last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Our wave to watch way up there circled, valid 0z tonight off the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The 18z GFS Ensembles don't look quite as good as 12z. It is nitpicking, and possibly a result of 18z runs being a tad less reliable, but it is still worth noting. A number of them look like a relatively boring frontal passage, at least around here. Even the 18z had some snow on the backside. At least we're on the cold side still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The 18z GFS Ensembles don't look quite as good as 12z. It is nitpicking, and possibly a result of 18z runs being a tad less reliable, but it is still worth noting. A number of them look like a relatively boring frontal passage, at least around here. My guess you're just seeing some more euro like solutions in the menbers? I haven't compared 12z and 18z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 My guess you're just seeing some more euro like solutions in the menbers? I haven't compared 12z and 18z though. The Euro wasn't that bad, though, just warm for us. I'm talking about relatively suppressed solutions that only get their act together once they approach the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 DVN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC INDUCES A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SETS UP AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...FAVORABLE FOR MORE WINTRY TYPE SYSTEMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO HIGH MODEL VARIABILITY FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS...CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IN THESE PERIODS REMAINS LOW. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH ITS MORE PHASED DEPICTION OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVES THAT COULD RESULT IN THE REGION/S FIRST WINTER STORM SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS A SIMILAR SURFACE LOW...ALTHOUGH HAS A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. FOR NOW...THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH WILL KEEP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NARROWED DOWN IN LATER FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD END UP SEVERAL CATEGORIES TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Even the 18z had some snow on the backside. At least we're on the cold side still! I like the OP 18z GFS. Would be a solid 2-4 inches Sunday night into Monday morning most likely, and would be a solid spread the wealth storm, giving similar totals to Chicago, Detroit, and perhaps St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The Euro wasn't that bad, though, just warm for us. I'm talking about relatively suppressed solutions that only get their act together once they approach the Apps. Oh, ok.. I really didn't see too much to worry about being suppressed if you're a buyer of the GFS. I'm not.. I haven't looked as close as i'd like though because fixing dinner. It just surprises me the euro is keeping it a one part main event with no blowup after like the GFS wants to. would think the euro would be all over that..it could change tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Oh, ok.. I really didn't see too much to worry about being suppressed if you're a buyer of the GFS. I'm not.. I haven't looked as close as i'd like though because fixing dinner. Probably not worth worrying about, as you guys are saying. Chances are this thing may trend NW over time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 GFS is all over the place with this one. Not surprising, multiple s/ws and stream interactions is going to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Oh, ok.. I really didn't see too much to worry about being suppressed if you're a buyer of the GFS. I'm not.. I haven't looked as close as i'd like though because fixing dinner. It just surprises me the euro is keeping it a one part main event with no blowup after like the GFS wants to. would think the euro would be all over that..it could change tho. All dependent on wave interaction and placement of it/them after they cross the rockies. Models are differing on if there is the main upper level system crossing the rockies into the central/nrn plains and a wave diving/rotating around it like the 12z Euro showed or single wave diving into the four corners and kicking out like the GFS has been progging. Here is the 12z GFS with the single wave moving across the srn plains with the other wave displaced further north and east Now we have the 12z Euro which moves the upper level system eastward into SD with a wave (hard to see here) at the base rotating around and phasing by 168hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 0z GFS just a cluster of badness. Would be a good a good soaker for Indiana, verbatim. Drought peeps in Indiana would be relieved though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Good lord we are seeing a whole bunch of different solutions and ways to spin up a good storm. Now the GFS is stalling our wave over the southwest, slowly kicking out into the plains as a wave comes ashore the pac NW/BC and drops southeast and phases with our wave by 174hr. Unreal. It's still a good snow event for parts of IA/WI/northern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 GGEM is a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 GGEM is a coastal. I guess you are ignoring the low at 120 and 126 hours in the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 this whole setup kind of reminds me of the GHDB....This is going to be a beast! ....AT this time...someone will cash in on some good snow, and someone will cash in on some really good rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Not much change in the Euro through 96hr. Wave coming ashore BC a tad weaker than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Through 114hr, the Euro has better potential than the 12z run if it doesn't stay with the positive tilted look later on. Trof digging further south with lower pressures on the side of the rockies in NM/CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Through 132hr its digging the wave into the NV/UT/AZ region, positive tilt. Decent advection snows across ND/SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Getting close to being cut off in AZ/NM at 150hr unless it's picked up by another wave coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.