A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 That is quite the signal for an ensemble mean, check out that baroclinic zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...ls/Members.html Obviously pure entertainment value on that one I posted. The low deepens like 23 mb in 12 hours...not impossible but extraordinarily difficult in this part of the country. When you get 30º+ temperature differences on either side of the baroclinic zone at 850, that's what can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 This is crazy even for the GFS. Maybe I'll get to experience my first blizzard. *weenie alert* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 This is crazy even for the GFS. Maybe I'll get to experience my first blizzard. That would be a rocking blizzard for St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 *weenie alert* We're not even on the "right" side of that thing, but make it happen. I'll drive us west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 One of the big alarm bells, I'm noticing, like with some of the bigger events in recent years (both severe weather, snow and otherwise), is that all the models have come aboard more or less, pretty far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 That would be a rocking blizzard for St. Louis. Clown maps for that have 25-30"+ for STL from that solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 18z, has a perfect track for S/E M to get a good snowfall, now of course the lack of cold air is the issue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 18z, has a perfect track for S/E M to get a good snowfall, now of course the lack of cold air is the issue.. I don't want to be in the bullseye just yet. Things rarely lock in this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm getting confused. Are these two separate storms forecast to move through? Is this a December 10-12 storm or December 9-11 storm? The models seem to be all over the place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 My initial gut feeling is it will be an upper midwest storm - I sure as hell hope Im wrong - but thats just a gut feeling based on the fact that its been quiet everywhere and they usually get a snowstorm before us. That said, the models will have NO accurate handle on this for DAYS...so we just have to keep mildly entertaining ourselves for the next several days before even thinking of latching onto a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 3, 2012 Author Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm getting confused. Are these two separate storms forecast to move through? Is this a December 10-12 storm or December 9-11 storm? The models seem to be all over the place! Well, it's almost one storm, but the time frame is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 some of the snow accumulation maps from those ensemble runs are insane. I could care less it's 8 days out. It's just nice to have potential in the medium range after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 some of the snow accumulation maps from those ensemble runs are insane. I could care less it's 8 days out. It's just nice to have potential in the medium range after last winter. p003 is ridiculous. Well, they are all to an extent...but 25"+, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 My initial gut feeling is it will be an upper midwest storm - I sure as hell hope Im wrong - but thats just a gut feeling based on the fact that its been quiet everywhere and they usually get a snowstorm before us. That said, the models will have NO accurate handle on this for DAYS...so we just have to keep mildly entertaining ourselves for the next several days before even thinking of latching onto a solution. I have been using the same logic but I guess there are always going to be exceptions to the rule. Needless to say it will be an interesting few days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 We're not even on the "right" side of that thing, but make it happen. I'll drive us west. I'm on the Chadwagon. He has been saying snow around December 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Funny how p002 decides to tease Lafayette with 20 inches to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I'm on the Chadwagon. He has been saying snow around December 10. Chadwagon. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 My initial gut feeling is it will be an upper midwest storm - I sure as hell hope Im wrong - but thats just a gut feeling based on the fact that its been quiet everywhere and they usually get a snowstorm before us. That said, the models will have NO accurate handle on this for DAYS...so we just have to keep mildly entertaining ourselves for the next several days before even thinking of latching onto a solution. I'm leaning that way as well. Best bet for us further to the S & E is if the system comes out in bits and pieces, with each subsequent wave pushing the baroclinic zone further to the south and east. Also, the hope is that the preceding storm becomes a downstream quasi-block. Otherwise, if it's a consolidated storm, the trough placement being so far west is not going to help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 DT of Wxrisk seems to agree that there will be no severe cold through at least December 18 but that the storms between 9-11 will impact the Great lakes and midwest. By the way, is he still a member of this forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 DT of Wxrisk seems to agree that there will be no severe cold through at least December 18 but that the storms between 9-11 will impact the Great lakes and midwest. By the way, is he still a member of this forum? Well in a way he might be right because the long range after this looks kinda crappy per the euro. More zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 DT of Wxrisk seems to agree that there will be no severe cold through at least December 18 but that the storms between 9-11 will impact the Great lakes and midwest. By the way, is he still a member of this forum? No he is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Obligatory mention of the D-to-the-GEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 DT of Wxrisk seems to agree that there will be no severe cold through at least December 18 but that the storms between 9-11 will impact the Great lakes and midwest. By the way, is he still a member of this forum? DT says all of MN, the eastern Dakotas, and parts of Iowa will get "smacked". I really don't have a clue how reliable he is as I never follow him so I guess take it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 DT of Wxrisk seems to agree that there will be no severe cold through at least December 18 but that the storms between 9-11 will impact the Great lakes and midwest. By the way, is he still a member of this forum? That has been my thinking the last few days as well. I see several opportunities for the lakes region before the solid cold arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 Obligatory mention of the D-to-the-GEX Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Wow lol what the hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 like to see the euro look more like the GFS before I bite in to the GFS weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 lol what the hell... What the freaking hell. Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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